Central PA Fall 2022

[Bubbler86]

I can see Liberty resort across the Valley from me and the lights are on.    They do not open until Mid-Dec.  Wonder if they are doing a soft opening? 

[Atomixwx]

Gabe Davis activated on my team. 

Yuuuuuup

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[Bubbler86]

[Itstrainingtime]

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I can see Liberty resort across the Valley from me and the lights are on.    They do not open until Mid-Dec.  Wonder if they are doing a soft opening? 

Roundtop has an annual preseason sale in mid November and often have their trails lit up that weekend. I can't imagine Liberty is even making snow yet given the temps. They might start blowing tomorrow night though.

[Bubbler86]

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Roundtop has an annual preseason sale in mid November and often have their trails lit up that weekend. I can't imagine Liberty is even making snow yet given the temps. They might start blowing tomorrow night though.

Yea their web site says mid Dec.  Maybe Liberty was doing the same thing.  With the crisp, dry air you could see liberty the whole way over here. 

[Itstrainingtime]

31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea their web site says mid Dec.  Maybe Liberty was doing the same thing.  With the crisp, dry air you could see liberty the whole way over here. 

Ironically, I can see Roundtop from my back door but I didn't see their lights on tonight. 

Roundtop is a 45 minute drive but near the same latitude-if a bridge crossed the river between us I could probably be there in 15 minutes.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Ironically, I can see Roundtop from my back door but I didn't see their lights on tonight. 

Roundtop is a 45 minute drive but near the same latitude-if a bridge crossed the river between us I could probably be there in 15 minutes.

You are closer to roundtop than I am to liberty.  It is almost a straight shot but could not get there is less than 30 min.  About 20 miles I believe. 

[Bubbler86]

27 this AM.  Little to no frost.  Only one frosty morning so far.   Growing season comes to an end here. 

[anotherman]

12 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I can see Liberty resort across the Valley from me and the lights are on.    They do not open until Mid-Dec.  Wonder if they are doing a soft opening? 

But can you see Russia from your house?

[Blizzard of 93]

27 for a low here in Marysville as well.

[Atomixwx]

But can you see Russia from your house?

From my house I see the prison planet where Britney Griner is making little rocks out of big rocks.



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[Blizzard of 93]

The overnight weather models have backed away from the storm threat late next week at this time, but the period still bears watching.

[Bubbler86]

26 minutes ago, anotherman said:

But can you see Russia from your house?

No but I can dig a hole and come out in Russia. 

[mahantango#1]

27 this morning but got down to 25 earlier in the night sometime.

[Bubbler86]

LSV zones says "The snow could be heavy at times" for today. 

MDT hit 37 at 7PM last night and they only dropped 2 degrees over the next 12 hours for a low of 35.   I did just notice they have two T's on the board this month. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are CTP’s thoughts for today’s snow squall potential:

The better threat of heavier snow showers/squalls still looks
to occur from about late morning through the afternoon hours,
and mostly east of the I-99 corridor.

Neutral sfc pattern to weak ridging will occur this morning,
prior to a rather well-defined mid level vort max and left exit
region of a 300 mb jet punching across the region this this
afternoon (19-22Z West and 21-01Z Sat across the Susq Valley and
points east).

These weather features and a sharpening sfc trough will bring
the threat of mainly isolated cellular combined with perhaps
a quasi-linear band of heavy snow squalls within the timeframes
noted above.

The primary difference among guidance is variation in the
amount of low level convergence along the front, which would
determine the mode (single vs multiple bands) of any possible
squalls. Given warm lakes and anomalously cold air means that
this event could become hybrid and overperform due to the
maximized lake air deltaTs.

low-level wet bulb temps should be warm enough to support a mix
of isolated to scattered and lighter, rain and wet snow showers
prior to the late day arrival of any squalls across the Lower
Susq Valley. The anticipated above freezing road temps across
the Central Ridge and Valley Region and Susq Region will combine
with low dewpoints, potential westerly wind gusts up to 35 mph
and briefly heavy snow in the squalls to quickly drop road
temps and bring the potential for localized flash freezes of the
road pavement.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are CTP’s thoughts for today’s snow squall potential:

The better threat of heavier snow showers/squalls still looks
to occur from about late morning through the afternoon hours,
and mostly east of the I-99 corridor.

Neutral sfc pattern to weak ridging will occur this morning,
prior to a rather well-defined mid level vort max and left exit
region of a 300 mb jet punching across the region this this
afternoon (19-22Z West and 21-01Z Sat across the Susq Valley and
points east).

These weather features and a sharpening sfc trough will bring
the threat of mainly isolated cellular combined with perhaps
a quasi-linear band of heavy snow squalls within the timeframes
noted above.

The primary difference among guidance is variation in the
amount of low level convergence along the front, which would
determine the mode (single vs multiple bands) of any possible
squalls. Given warm lakes and anomalously cold air means that
this event could become hybrid and overperform due to the
maximized lake air deltaTs.

low-level wet bulb temps should be warm enough to support a mix
of isolated to scattered and lighter, rain and wet snow showers
prior to the late day arrival of any squalls across the Lower
Susq Valley. The anticipated above freezing road temps across
the Central Ridge and Valley Region and Susq Region will combine
with low dewpoints, potential westerly wind gusts up to 35 mph
and briefly heavy snow in the squalls to quickly drop road
temps and bring the potential for localized flash freezes of the
road pavement.

AKA as "Do not travel route 80 today".  

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is CTP’s expected snow for today with the squalls.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

AKA as "Do not travel route 80 today".  

I-81 also had that terrible chain reaction several dozen vehicle crash last year in a snow squall.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is CTP’s expected snow for today with the squalls.

 

That would be more than I got when the GFS had me slated to see 4-6" earlier this week. 

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That would be more than I got when the GFS had me slated to see 4-6" earlier this week. 

I thought that you got a coating of snow from the storm on Tuesday?

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is CTP’s expected snow for today with the squalls.

Here is CTP’s timing of the squalls today.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I thought that you got a coating of snow from the storm on Tuesday?

We had some showing in the mulch for a short time then the rain started again and washed it away.  

[Itstrainingtime]

49 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

LSV zones says "The snow could be heavy at times" for today. 

MDT hit 37 at 7PM last night and they only dropped 2 degrees over the next 12 hours for a low of 35.   I did just notice they have two T's on the board this month. 

My low was 32 here in Maytown. Skies are crystal clear out there right now. 

[canderson]

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

AKA as "Do not travel route 80 ever".  

FTFY

[Itstrainingtime]

I'm still searching for my first flakes of the season here - I'll take a passing flurry later on just to say I've seen snow. 

[paweather]

We had one exciting model run yesterday and then we go back to nothing. OH well. 33 and sunny right now bring on the squalls!

[canderson]

53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm still searching for my first flakes of the season here - I'll take a passing flurry later on just to say I've seen snow. 

That Tuesday storm was really weird, wasn't it? MDT had a trace, I had 1" - right NW they had 2-3". Usually that cutoff is further north this early and with that setup. 

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

That Tuesday storm was really weird, wasn't it? MDT had a trace, I had 1" - right NW they had 2-3". Usually that cutoff is further north this early and with that setup. 

I'm interested in how much QPF fell in areas that had snow, or mainly snow. Seems like the higher end amounts were in the 6" or so range, not sure what ratios they had but I had nearly 1.1" of total rainfall. 

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm interested in how much QPF fell in areas that had snow, or mainly snow. Seems like the higher end amounts were in the 6" or so range, not sure what ratios they had but I had nearly 1.1" of total rainfall. 

They were huge flakes here - huge, wet, flakes. Driving home from Starbucks at 6 my wife actually said she felt more uncomfortable driving that she has in any run of the mill 2-3" January clipper. Something about the flakes were putting off weird light and reflecting since they were mixed with rain. It was just heavy enough to stick to roads, which still shocks me given how wet it was.