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Winter 2022-23 Discussion


Hoosier
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Looking forward to another year of endless cutoff lows, clouds, cold, and snow until May.  It’s as if it just ended not too long ago, oh wait.  Maybe we’ll get a couple well above normal days each month to skew the monthly numbers and say it was above normal. 

No severe weather season in the spring to make winter less miserable or more than likely the rest of the year as has been the case.  Summer will last a couple months if that then rinse and repeat again.  Living north of the Ohio River is so enjoyable….

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4 hours ago, NTXYankee said:

Looking forward to another year of endless cutoff lows, clouds, cold, and snow until May.  It’s as if it just ended not too long ago, oh wait.  Maybe we’ll get a couple well above normal days each month to skew the monthly numbers and say it was above normal. 

No severe weather season in the spring to make winter less miserable or more than likely the rest of the year as has been the case.  Summer will last a couple months if that then rinse and repeat again.  Living north of the Ohio River is so enjoyable….

We're getting a taste of your weather soon too, as we actually might not get out of the 60s here by early next week.

As awesome as September and the first half of October has been, it's definitely too early for my liking.

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2000-01 is obviously an analog that will be floated around with it being one of the limited number of examples of a 3rd year Nina.  Everybody remembers that December, which was pretty historic in some areas, but another thing I remember is how quickly that winter pretty much shut off in my area once January 2001 arrived.  I went back and looked at some stats to refresh my memory about how bad things got.  Chicago only received 8.2" between Jan-Apr 2001 (4.0" of which came in a March storm), which is the 4th lowest amount of snow on record during that time, and the lowest since 1949.  And it's not like it became warm overall or excessively dry.  Just horrid timing with it usually not being cold enough at the right time. 

When that crazy December was happening, I wondered if we were on the way to an incredibly snowy winter.  I loved getting so much snow that month, but it just quickly flamed out after such a remarkable start.

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16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

2000-01 is obviously an analog that will be floated around with it being one of the limited number of examples of a 3rd year Nina.  Everybody remembers that December, which was pretty historic in some areas, but another thing I remember is how quickly that winter pretty much shut off in my area once January 2001 arrived.  I went back and looked at some stats to refresh my memory about how bad things got.  Chicago only received 8.2" between Jan-Apr 2001 (4.0" of which came in a March storm), which is the 4th lowest amount of snow on record during that time, and the lowest since 1949.  And it's not like it became warm overall or excessively dry.  Just horrid timing with it usually not being cold enough at the right time. 

When that crazy December was happening, I wondered if we were on the way to an incredibly snowy winter.  I loved getting so much snow that month, but it just quickly flamed out after such a remarkable start.

There were a few weeks that December where we had Winter Storm Warnings every other day.  I'm glad it shut off in January or we would have had snow on the ground until May.

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Do you guys think 1988-1989 is a good analog for the upcoming winter? I noticed Joe Bastardi indicated that this was the coldest start to October since 1988, although I know he can sometimes take liberties with data. Regardless, I thought that was interesting since I also recently read that the Mississippi River at Memphis recently went below the prior record low set in 1988. So both years had widespread drought across the CONUS, a chilly October, and a similar ENSO state at this point - although 1988-1989 went on to become a strong La Nina whereas I believe most forecasts for this winter are weak to moderate La Nina.

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3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Do you guys think 1988-1989 is a good analog for the upcoming winter? I noticed Joe Bastardi indicated that this was the coldest start to October since 1988, although I know he can sometimes take liberties with data. Regardless, I thought that was interesting since I also recently read that the Mississippi River at Memphis recently went below the prior record low set in 1988. So both years had widespread drought across the CONUS, a chilly October, and a similar ENSO state at this point - although 1988-1989 went on to become a strong La Nina whereas I believe most forecasts for this winter are weak to moderate La Nina.

It looks 2011-2012 might be a decent analog as well, which was a multi-year ENSO?

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3 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

That's their typical la nina broad brush.  This agency is utter garbage at this point and shouldn't be taken seriously.

I personally think there's limited utility with these kinds of outlooks, but they get a lot of mainstream attention.

Here's what Ninas in the past 20 years have done temp/precip wise.  Some of them really "look" like Nina, some kind of do and some really don't.  I left out 2016-17 based on the DJF ONI value no longer being in Nina territory, but there's an argument for that winter to be considered a Nina.

DJF06TDeptUS.png

DJF06PDeptUS.png

 

DJF08TDeptUS.png

DJF08PDeptUS.png

 

DJF09TDeptUS.png

DJF09PDeptUS.png

 

DJF11TDeptUS.png

DJF11PDeptUS.png

 

DJF12TDeptUS.png

DJF12PDeptUS.png

 

DJF18TDeptUS.png

DJF18PDeptUS.png

 

DJF21TDeptUS.png

DJF21PDeptUS.png

 

DJF22TDeptUS.png

DJF22PDeptUS.png

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34 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

John Dee's winter prognostication is supposed to come out tomorrow(10/26).  Waiting in anticipation!   

Why? He's not that good, especially outside his back yard aka the U.P. aka Yooperland. He will surely show "No good sledding" everywhere south of The Straights. I don't dislike the guy on a personal level just to be clear. 

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On 10/20/2022 at 6:07 PM, Hoosier said:

2000-01 is obviously an analog that will be floated around with it being one of the limited number of examples of a 3rd year Nina.  Everybody remembers that December, which was pretty historic in some areas, but another thing I remember is how quickly that winter pretty much shut off in my area once January 2001 arrived.  I went back and looked at some stats to refresh my memory about how bad things got.  Chicago only received 8.2" between Jan-Apr 2001 (4.0" of which came in a March storm), which is the 4th lowest amount of snow on record during that time, and the lowest since 1949.  And it's not like it became warm overall or excessively dry.  Just horrid timing with it usually not being cold enough at the right time. 

When that crazy December was happening, I wondered if we were on the way to an incredibly snowy winter.  I loved getting so much snow that month, but it just quickly flamed out after such a remarkable start.

January through April 2001 was 1 of the most boring Winter weather periods I could remember. What helped big time was that the deep snow pack from December did not fully melt until the 2nd week of February, and much of January was spent with a respectable snowpack despite little active weather.  And yes, the snow pack made a huge difference in how that Winter was remembered.

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16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

January through April 2001 was 1 of the most boring Winter weather periods I could remember. What helped big time was that the deep snow pack from December did not fully melt until the 2nd week of February, and much of January was spent with a respectable snowpack despite little active weather.  And yes, the snow pack made a huge difference in how that Winter was remembered.

Clearly the best December I can remember with almost 20" on the ground for Christmas with cold weather.  I'll take that over a solid Jan-March anytime.  

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

January through April 2001 was 1 of the most boring Winter weather periods I could remember. What helped big time was that the deep snow pack from December did not fully melt until the 2nd week of February, and much of January was spent with a respectable snowpack despite little active weather.  And yes, the snow pack made a huge difference in how that Winter was remembered.

Absolutely amazing 70 days durability of snowcover for this region considering it was hardly being replenished.

From a Dec to remember standpoint for DTW, give me one of these: '74, '81, '00, '17 (2013 had the unfortunate melt-off for Christmas)

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22 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Why? He's not that good, especially outside his back yard aka the U.P. aka Yooperland. He will surely show "No good sledding" everywhere south of The Straights. I don't dislike the guy on a personal level just to be clear. 

Dee's making me eat Crow and like it. He did say his secret formula has upped his seasonal batting avg, and he dropped his "no good sledding" mantra. Just says GO NORTH! Said last year's calls worked out, including the BN snowfall for Chicago/NIL region. I like the overall look of his map, just wish him to be wrong on his call for AN temps here. Can't argue with that call though.  

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