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June 13 Severe Event


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Mesoscale Discussion 1143
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

   Areas affected...East-Central IL...Central/Southern IN...Southwest
   OH...Northern KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 131729Z - 131930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
   damaging  wind gusts may develop over the next few hours. Potential
   exists for the development of a convective line capable of strong
   wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations across the Lower/Mid OH
   Valley sampled a very moist air mass, with dewpoints in the upper
   70s/low 80s. Surface temperatures across this region have reached
   the low 90s. These low-level thermodynamic conditions beneath steep
   mid-level lapse rates is contributing to extreme instability. Recent
   mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 5000 J/kg and recent RAP
   soundings show a surface-based LI of -13 to -14 deg C. Mesoanalysis
   also indicates convective inhibition has eroded across much of the
   region, despite very warm low to mid-level temperatures.

   An area of deeper cumulus has developed just northeast of the
   strongest buoyancy, in the open warm sector well southwest of the
   warm front. Mesoanalysis reveals this cumulus is within an area of
   modest moisture convergence likely resultant from a subtle wind
   shift. Lighting has also been noted within this region during the
   last half hour. Given the thermodynamic conditions, very strong
   updrafts/downdrafts are possible. Moderate vertical shear is also in
   place, suggesting storm organization is possible. 

   Evolution of this development is still uncertain, owing to the weak
   large-scale forcing for ascent and warm low to mid-level
   temperatures. However, the overall pattern and presence of extreme
   buoyancy suggest the potential exists for the development of a
   well-organized convective line. Most likely corridor for progression
   of this line would be across central/southern IN and into southwest
   OH and adjacent northern KY.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/13/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

mcd1143.gif

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17 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

We have been lucky here in nw IN this spring in escaping svr events.  Our luck may soon be about to change.  Those dews are horrendous.

I *tend* to think that the main activity will be north of us at this point.  That being said, latest HRRR blows up some healthy cells like right overhead later and the atmosphere is so volatile/explosive that we have to keep monitoring things.

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Thinking I ride this out in Toledo tonight. Might head back to CLE if it looks like best parameters favor a bit further east. First real severe threat I've been in for quite some time. Storms over Indiana now. CAMs failed there in the short range.

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1 minute ago, amt5626 said:

Thinking I ride this out in Toledo tonight. Might head back to CLE if it looks like best parameters favor a bit further east. First real severe threat I've been in for quite some time. Storms over Indiana now. CAMs failed there in the short range.

Toledo or somewhere on US 6 or US 20 between Fremont & BG or Fremont & Perrysburg is your best bet. Very Oklahoma like setup with tons of open fields. Plus US 6 gives you the ability to head west without traffic if need be

 

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6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It is concerning that there's been no real organization yet with the MCV that's about to cross Lake Michigan.

That, and the storms developing in Central IN may cut off moisture inflow.

The activity in central IN would have to blow up big time to make me concerned about it robbing moisture for areas farther north.

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It is concerning that there's been no real organization yet with the MCV that's about to cross Lake Michigan.
That, and the storms developing in Central IN may cut off moisture inflow.

The dual MCV’s are a lost cause at this point.
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Graphic for MPD #0349

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0349
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Wisconsin...Northern Illinois...Southern
Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131800Z - 132300Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing complex of thunderstorms to bring torrential
rainfall rates to parts of the Lower Great Lakes this afternoon.
Areas of flash flooding are possible.

DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis continued to show a surface warm
front inching north through the Midwest with increasingly unstable
atmospheric profiles within the warm sector. Dew points are
reaching the low 80s in parts of southern Illinois and 850mb
moisture flux is increasing along and north of the front. The
ongoing complex of thunderstorms associated with an MCV tracking
into central Wisconsin will continue on an ESE trajectory this
afternoon with convection forming along the strengthening MUCAPE
gradient. MUCAPE will vary significantly by location, but range
generally between 2,000-4,000 J/kg. PWs are also on the rise with
values approaching 2.0" later this afternoon.

RAP mesoanalysis and short term forecasts suggest effective bulk
vertical wind shear will increase to 50-60 knots and effective SRH
values from 100-200 m2/s2 this afternoon. These values are very
favorable for keeping ongoing convection organized. As low level
inflow intersects the front, additional strengthening of the
convection is possible, along with the potential for intensifying
convection on the southwest flank of the complex. Some areas,
notably north of Milwaukee, in southwest Michigan, and northern
Indiana have dealt with measurable rainfall over the last week.
Soils are closer to normal saturation-wise, but they still have
picked up 200-400% of normal rainfall over the last week.

Given rainfall rates with the previous convective cluster in
Minnesota had already produced >2"/hr rates, and the atmosphere
contains similar favorable parameters, the expectation is for max
hourly rainfall rates to range between 2-3"/hr. Areas most
susceptible to flash flooding are the areas that contain more
sensitive soils from rainfall over the past week, as well as
urbanized centers and poor drainage locations. FFGs in these areas
are as low as 1-1.5"/hr, which does include areas between
Milwaukee and Green Bay.
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3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It is concerning that there's been no real organization yet with the MCV that's about to cross Lake Michigan.

That, and the storms developing in Central IN may cut off moisture inflow.

That MCV is pretty weak at this point.  It's got some clouds and light precip with it, but it's also pulling the front north a little.  The surface cool layer in Wisconsin is partly due to wind off Lake Michigan.  Maybe something will pop up in the SW corner of MI because of the lake breeze.  CAPE is becoming more surface based there finally.

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15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The activity in central IN would have to blow up big time to make me concerned about it robbing moisture for areas farther north.

It's early and a big watch area. That Central IN activity could still blow up yet given the impressive low level convergence.

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The activity in central IN would have to blow up big time to make me concerned about it robbing moisture for areas farther north.

Yea, the 925 mb inflow is west of that cluster.  It would have to back-build across Illinois to really get in the way.  Seems unlikely with a strong cap over Illinois.  I think its way more likely it will just dive SE into Kentucky.

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12 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

I am also concerned about the 700 mb cap in IL and IA and whether it will succeed in breaking later today.

It would be nice if somebody (say DVN) launched a special sounding before 00z to see how pronounced the capping is.

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The 12C isotherm at 700 mb seems like the boundary for where convection is overcoming the cap.  If the cell near Madison is indicative of where an MCS could form, it might backbuild south into the more extreme instability over northern Indiana once it passes southern lake Michigan.  Better shear is coming in from the west with time as well.

700mb2.gif

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19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

18z HRRR... talk about explosive development over Lake Michigan just after 00z.

I'm just debating if I should immediately drive down to the southern lake shore to watch when I get off work.  Maybe Benton Harbor area.  Still uncertainty though.

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13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Velocities appear to be picking up with that cell, outside the southern edge of the warning polygon.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

Large Supercell forming from that cluster.  Half inch hail at my house.   RFD  hitting downtown madison 

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10 minutes ago, madwx said:

Still elevated based on the local temps and CIN on that mesoanalysis

Upward suction from mesocyclone can overcome quite a bit of surface CIN.  The surface instability is/was pretty meager right there in Madison, but the big gradient is close enough if it turns a little to the right.  I don't think the analysis captures a sharp gradient well.  It smooths it.  The lake-modified vs not lake modified boundary can be pretty sharp.  There are breaks in the clouds and low 80s plus low 70s dews near the Illinois border.

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