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18 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Its the same setup we would wish for in winter, instead of the low sprinting off the coast. 

Not exactly. This sort of a pattern is most likely to occur in Fall or Spring, and while it is a 'blocking' pattern, it is an omega block with a cutoff low that meanders around under an anticyclonic wave break, and it is not the setup we would want to see(or is very likely to occur) during winter. If we did get a high amplitude poleward extending h5 ridge in that position(as is being advertised) during winter, it would be a generally mild pattern with maritime air mass.

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Does Sunday look rainy? I know it will be cool, which is fine. But rainy? 

At the moment, it looks dry after dawn, but probably fairly cool.  

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16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

At the moment, it looks dry after dawn, but probably fairly cool.  

I can deal with cool. Have the family coming to my house, with dogs in tow. Need the dogs to be able to be outside :lol: 

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On 4/26/2022 at 11:33 AM, psuhoffman said:

Why are you upsetting yourself in April over something that may or may not happen next year in which you have absolutely no control over? 
 

Also, I posted data a few months ago that showed the Nina hate is over blown. Yes Nina’s are worse than the avg. But that’s because modoki ninos skew the mean upward. In the last 40 years Nina’s are actually no worse (and actually slightly better) than any enso phase other than modoki Nino.  Truth is only modoki ninos give us a good chance of an above avg snow season. EVERY other year (which is like 90% of them) gives us equally likely chances of a below avg snow season. 
 

In summary about 1-2 times a decade we get a modoki Nino and those are almost always big snow years. The other 8-9 years are mostly below avg with every so often one lucky year where some other enso phase year flukes into an above avg snow season. Basically just expect below avg snow every year then be really happy the 2-3 times a decade we get lucky and above avg. 

Sorry a bit late with the response here. Now, in regards to the Nina hate being overblown: Now from my eyes, the ninas seem like the most frustrating in which to track things? I think of all the futile tracking 2016-17, 2017-18, 2020-21, and 2021-22. Thinkjng the myriad ways the NS got in the way...that happen in neutral or niño? GL lows, NS dominance, (and little to know SS) are fails specific to ninas are they not? Perhaps the Nina hate comes from the way (which is often the same) that we fail as opposed to a statistical coin flip of above or below average.

 

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19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sorry a bit late with the response here. Now, in regards to the Nina hate being overblown: Now from my eyes, the ninas seem like the most frustrating in which to track things? I think of all the futile tracking 2016-17, 2017-18, 2020-21, and 2021-22. Thinkjng the myriad ways the NS got in the way...that happen in neutral or niño? GL lows, NS dominance, (and little to know SS) are fails specific to ninas are they not? Perhaps the Nina hate comes from the way (which is often the same) that we fail as opposed to a statistical coin flip of above or below average.

 

Getting snow around here is hard, regardless of ENSO, and it isn't getting any easier as we move forward. The Holy grail of 2009-10 is super rare, so throw that one out. So, we suck at snow most of the time. End of story.

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7 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO has rain on Mother’s Day.   It actually has rain or showers every day except Monday next week.  Get your ark built today.

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Get out of here with that 6" blob over Calvert and Anne Arundel.  We better not have yet another rainforest summer.  

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7 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yep. That -PNA from late January on was historic

Give me a break, I audibled it would even out after December though. 

 

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We never broke Weak La Nina status on CPC ONI. ^Historically, there is a very strong narrow range as per ENSO strength and NPH High, this is about as stretched+(N. S. Hemipshere) as you'll may be see. (GW could be +0.3 difference, [-1.3])

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