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April 12th-14th Severe Threat


Geoboy645
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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not that this is breaking news, but tomorrow still looks a bit messy.  Not sure what to think locally.

Yea.  That southern stream system backs the 500 mb flow to its north.  It's a bubble of weak shear and crapvection that has to get out of the way.

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2 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

Morning stuff like this always kills the afternoon potential.

 

Not true... there are exceptions.  Need to evaluate on a case by case basis as a couple hours of recovery either way can have a sig impact on a severe threat.

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Got on the Iowa storm of the day but missed the Gilmore City tornado by waiting at/on IA-3 just east of Humboldt for the storm to come to me (not wanting to get behind by having to go back through town due to anticipated fast storm speeds, and not wanting to tangle with the forward flank core due to high potential for large hail). If only it had had an additional classic tornado cycle or two during daylight, I would have been in great position for those, but alas. Still a fun (if exhausting, 12 hours straight on the roads after working 3AM-noon Tuesday) chase. It got a little hairy as I raced up I-35 to US-18 east at Mason City with the forward flank core encroaching on the highway to my north and the "business end" of the supercell (with recently reported tornado north of Belmond/west of Thornton) to my west. I got a lightning-lit glimpse of what appeared to be a large wall cloud with "beaver tail" extending toward the forward flank core.

I took 18 all the way home, with the supercell an increasing distance (10s of miles) to my northwest based on radar, but there still seemed to be lightning all around me. The Riceville tornado apparently occurred just after I got out of Charles City radio range, and by the time I got home shortly after 12:30 AM, the supercell was gone and all warnings on the MCS dropped.

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000
SXUS71 KILN 141347
RERDAY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
946 AM EDT THU APR 14 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DAYTON OH...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.15 WAS SET AT DAYTON OH YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.07 SET IN 1991.


$$

 

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16 hours ago, nwohweather said:

There is some serious wind up and down this massive line. In Kentucky and Mississippi there’s for sure hurricane force winds

I ended up on 64 in shelby county kentucky. Pretty sure i was in a circulation but could not punch in front of the line as the winds were incredibly intense and visibility was all of 5 feet. I finally called it quits after being in it for a solid 30 minutes. Most intense driving ive experienced. One hell of a storm.  And FWIW a mesonet station in Shelby county recorded a 75 mph gust

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On 4/13/2022 at 11:12 AM, Hoosier said:

Not true... there are exceptions.  Need to evaluate on a case by case basis as a couple hours of recovery either way can have a sig impact on a severe threat.

problem is when you have cloud deck with no sun, no recovery.  we've seen that time and time when 8-10am rains come in with no recovery period to follow.  Hopefully, that changes.

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15 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

problem is when you have cloud deck with no sun, no recovery.  we've seen that time and time when 8-10am rains come in with no recovery period to follow.  Hopefully, that changes.

We got the rain to move out fairly early, but it stayed cloudy as you mentioned.  Just off the top of my head, a few events that had preceding rain or clouds and then produced a good amount of severe wx in the LOT cwa are 4/20/04, 6/5/10 and 6/30/14... granted they mainly impacted areas near/south of I-80.  

I don't think we were all that far away from having a more significant severe wx episode in the area on Wed.  I mean, even with all the clouds, ORD managed to reach the low 70s and dews got into the low 60s.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

We got the rain to move out fairly early, but it stayed cloudy as you mentioned.  Just off the top of my head, a few events that had preceding rain or clouds and then produced a good amount of severe wx in the LOT cwa are 4/20/04, 6/5/10 and 6/30/14... granted they mainly impacted areas near/south of I-80.  

I don't think we were all that far away from having a more significant severe wx episode in the area on Wed.  I mean, even with all the clouds, ORD managed to reach the low 70s and dews got into the low 60s.

Early day precip/clouds become much less of an issue as we go into the summer months.   The baseline moisture and ability to rapidly warm at the surface really mitigates those risks.  

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44 minutes ago, madwx said:

Early day precip/clouds become much less of an issue as we go into the summer months.   The baseline moisture and ability to rapidly warm at the surface really mitigates those risks.  

Yeah, I can buy it being easier to overcome later in spring and summer.  How many days in summer do we have dews in the 70s?  A lot.  Even if moisture temporarily gets depleted by an early day MCS or whatever, it doesn't take much to replenish.

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, I can buy it being easier to overcome later in spring and summer.  How many days in summer do we have dews in the 70s?  A lot.  Even if moisture temporarily gets depleted by an early day MCS or whatever, it doesn't take much to replenish.

In the summer you can get decent CAPE without super steep mid-level lapse rates because there's more moisture.  In the spring mid-level lapse rates are everything.  Once large scale convective precipitation occurs, it not only cools the boundary layer, it warms the mid and upper levels through latent heat release.  You can't really recover the cold temps aloft with surface heating alone.  They need to advect back in from the west.  That's my take on it.

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Another problem with the last system was there was a more subtle southern stream vort lobe that came around the base of the larger trough at the wrong time.  This smaller wave had enough deep dynamic lift to trigger a lot of morning precip over the warm sector.  That wrecked the steep mid-level lapse rates that were in place ahead of the system the day before.  It also backed the 500 mb flow north of it so much that the deep level shear was gone until it finally sheared out to the north late in the day.

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