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Spring 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion


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Of course we all kind of suspected this was coming but it's depressing to watch it unfold on the GFS. Monster CAPE/moisture finally arrives early next week but no upper support/trigger. Hello, summer. :axe:

There will be several days with severe potential in the Midwest next week.
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Is it squished straight south or shunted more east instead of due north?  I'd prefer the later is it would mean better chances of interesting weather in my area.  The northern edge of thermonuclear cap with thermonuclear cape values just to the south can be fun.

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30 minutes ago, Baum said:

still real early for you severe weather guys. Get the heat and dews in place and eventually there will be  match to light the gas. Oddly, lost my fascination with severe with age, but emptied out every book in the library reading about tornado events and the science behind them as a kid. So take my views with a grain of salt.

In the words of Yogi Berra, it gets late early.  

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50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


There will be several days with severe potential in the Midwest next week.

Yea, northwest Wisconsin.  Still looks boring for Michigan :(.  Retrograding subtropical cutoff eats up the ridge from the east with no fanfare.  zzzzzzzz

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52 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Yea, northwest Wisconsin.  Still looks boring for Michigan :(.  Retrograding subtropical cutoff eats up the ridge from the east with no fanfare.  zzzzzzzz

Northwest WI will be in the Lake Superior freezer belt.  Same with eastern Wisconsin as the front stalls south of us.  Wonder if it even makes it north Mon/Tues or if we get a 1 day wonder shot of heat on Thursday before back to craptastic spring.

 

Monday through Thursday:

An unusually impressive 588-591DM mid/upper level ridge will evolve
across the area with an increase in warmth/higher dew points. While
the mid level ridge builds we will have to keep a close eye on
the lower levels as there are some indications a front will drop
into the area towards mid week with some storm chances and alter
the thermal field somewhat. The front, should it sag south of the
area Wednesday, could then return on Thursday renewing the well
above normal temps. At this time south central Wisconsin has the
higher probs of seeing the 80 plus temps given the lake influence
that could come into play to a greater extent in the east.
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Any easterly wind component whatsoever is going to knock temps back a lot near the western shore of Lake Michigan, especially with northward extent since the distance traveled over water is greater.  It is what it is.

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1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

Northwest WI will be in the Lake Superior freezer belt.  Same with eastern Wisconsin as the front stalls south of us.  Wonder if it even makes it north Mon/Tues or if we get a 1 day wonder shot of heat on Thursday before back to craptastic spring.

 

Monday through Thursday:

An unusually impressive 588-591DM mid/upper level ridge will evolve
across the area with an increase in warmth/higher dew points. While
the mid level ridge builds we will have to keep a close eye on
the lower levels as there are some indications a front will drop
into the area towards mid week with some storm chances and alter
the thermal field somewhat. The front, should it sag south of the
area Wednesday, could then return on Thursday renewing the well
above normal temps. At this time south central Wisconsin has the
higher probs of seeing the 80 plus temps given the lake influence
that could come into play to a greater extent in the east.

Well, then Iowa and eastern Minnesota.  These amplified blocky patterns are fickle.  Cooler air coming in from the periphery of the SE cutoff will put an end to 80+ temps before the western trough gets anywhere near.  It will probably still be in the 70s though, even with showers around.  Much better than a polar trough, but still a boring pattern.

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While the ECMWF/EPS combo certainly tends to verify better in the medium-long range, still too far out to be completely confident in what the last few full runs (00z last night and 12z today) have been showing. That said, the Euro really does mute the heat and humidity locally for several days after Tuesday.

I'm bearish on even the guidance with more extended heat and humidity being supportive of meaningful severe threats locally, so imo after the mostly miserable past 5-6 weeks, bring on what the Euro is showing Wednesday-Friday next week. The far northwest parts of the sub could get some action closer to the better mid-level flow and upper support and a less dry and capped column.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

While the ECMWF/EPS combo certainly tends to verify better in the medium-long range, still too far out to be completely confident in what the last few full runs (00z last night and 12z today) have been showing. That said, the Euro really does mute the heat and humidity locally for several days after Tuesday.

I'm bearish on even the guidance with more extended heat and humidity being supportive of meaningful severe threats locally, so imo after the mostly miserable past 5-6 weeks, bring on what the Euro is showing Wednesday-Friday next week. The far northwest parts of the sub could get some action closer to the better mid-level flow and upper support and a less dry and capped column.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Just go with whatever Joe thinks. Gospel 

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What is it with Michigan and boring springs lately.  When it finally warms up its always this meandering blocky shit that shunts the jet way northwest.  Same thing every year.  What does it take to get a more zonal pattern that pushes shear and instability farther east than the Mississippi?  Lately it's either a constant trough or a strung out meandering ridge with nothing in between.

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13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Any easterly wind component whatsoever is going to knock temps back a lot near the western shore of Lake Michigan, especially with northward extent since the distance traveled over water is greater.  It is what it is.

50s for him, torch for most, best climo for me

 

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10 hours ago, frostfern said:

What is it with Michigan and boring springs lately.  When it finally warms up its always this meandering blocky shit that shunts the jet way northwest.  Same thing every year.  What does it take to get a more zonal pattern that pushes shear and instability farther east than the Mississippi?  Lately it's either a constant trough or a strung out meandering ridge with nothing in between.

Thankfully it looks like we are finally going to get out of the these miserable temps in the 40s & 50s.    I will agree it has been a long time since Southern Lower MI (at least north of Detroit) has had a spring worth remembering (t-storm wise at least).  I used to look really forward to April and May for a few big time storms (especially the beginning of some fun the nocturnal events) .  Yes many events did stay south and west which is expected especially in April (not like I expect to be the bullseye) but lately there does seem to be a void here in the springs less a few renegade storms like we have had this year.   Hopefully later May into June can get us going this year (mid-June into October last year IMBY was the best T-storms I have seen in years)!!

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For LOT area, Euro seems to have backed off to some extent with the cooling that it had been showing after Tuesday.  Will be curious to see if ORD can put together a respectable 80+ degree streak by May standards.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

For LOT area, Euro seems to have backed off to some extent with the cooling that it had been showing after Tuesday.  Will be curious to see if ORD can put together a respectable 80+ degree streak by May standards.

The heat arrives earlier and then intensifies towards the end of the week in the latest runs.  The only question is if there is any convection around Monday through Wednesday.  It doesn't look like any proper cold fronts, just a weak little upper waves brushing by.  By the end of the week everything is firmly capped except the far northwest, so it can get hot most places so long as the SE US upper cutoff doesn't retrograde earlier than forecast.  Those upper cutoffs are so fickle though.  

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

For LOT area, Euro seems to have backed off to some extent with the cooling that it had been showing after Tuesday.  Will be curious to see if ORD can put together a respectable 80+ degree streak by May standards.

Here's something that may come into play...

Getting a 5+ day streak of 80+ temps in Chicago in May is not that unusual, but many of them tend to happen later in the month. 

The last time there was a 5+ day streak of 80+ on May 15 or earlier wasn't even in May, or April for that matter.  The last time was in the infamous March 2012.

Maybe we can call this period Mayorch.  

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  • 2 weeks later...
4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Long way out but signs of heat rebuilding toward the end of the month.

Good, let it torch until September.  I can’t get a decent storm so might as well enjoy the heat.

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9 hours ago, Spartman said:

12z GFS hinting a cutoff low for Memorial Day weekend.

image.png.5ea60ef49ce3cfcae5c8aa8770dc86c0.png
image.png.e23b921cf1b117526735e43a1e9a309d.png
image.png.bf1190a570921a4bd596db164c69da4e.png
 

 

This wouldn’t shock me, Memorial Day last year was miserable for Ohio so why stop the trend of people regretting coming up here thinking the crap was over.

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That was an inferno airmass aloft on the 00z Euro for part of next week.  Didn't really translate to the surface though so must have a low based inversion or something, because those 850s with mixing to that level would normally easily yield 100+ temps.

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30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That was an inferno airmass aloft on the 00z Euro for part of next week.  Didn't really translate to the surface though so must have a low based inversion or something, because those 850s with mixing to that level would normally easily yield 100+ temps.

Top shelf stuff.  This is what I drool over.

Capture.JPG

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