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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago Storm
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Granted we don't know how many confirmed tornadoes there will be, but I wonder when the last time was that there were this many tornado reports that occurred in an area that didn't even have a marginal risk area.  And it's not like there was a marginal risk nearby -- the nearest marginal risk area wasn't even close.

 

221012_rpts.gif

 

That being said, I'm with Chi Storm in not being too critical of SPC's outlooks for this one.  I went back and looked at the progged parameters/overall setup, and it would've been difficult to see this coming.  Yes, there was a little bit of CAPE that was progged, but it was quite confined from a spatial and temporal aspect.  Indeed, this whole thing was over with in SE WI in about 60-90 minutes. 

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Granted we don't know how many confirmed tornadoes there will be, but I wonder when the last time was that there were this many tornado reports that occurred in an area that didn't even have a marginal risk area.  And it's not like there was a marginal risk nearby -- the nearest marginal risk area wasn't even close.

 

221012_rpts.gif

 

That being said, I'm with Chi Storm in not being too critical of SPC's outlooks for this one.  I went back and looked at the progged parameters/overall setup, and it would've been difficult to see this coming.  Yes, there was a little bit of CAPE that was progged, but it was quite confined from a spatial and temporal aspect.  Indeed, this whole thing was over with in SE WI in about 60-90 minutes. 

The mid-level lapse rates were somewhat decent with the cold pool aloft, but that's about the only thing that stood out from an instability standpoint.

I didn't see any lightning with this activity on the detectors either.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Certainly looks like a potentially dynamic system early next week.  Will have to see how it trends and if we can muster enough instability for a severe threat.

The "2nd severe weather season" is certainly upon us. Potential could be there next week. So far, SPC waiting for consistency among the models.

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  • 2 weeks later...
16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Instability looks minimal at best on Saturday, but the strengthening background wind fields in association with the deepening surface low may be enough to force some strong to marginally severe gusts to the surface in any organized line of showers.

If things hold as modeled currently, it wouldn't be surprising. Especially with synoptic wind gusts over 45MPH likely as is.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1059 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

As of 1055AM, a line of gusty convective showers is moving across
areas east of I-39 and recently produced a 51 kt gust at RFD.
Along and just ahead of the leading line of showers, aggressive
wind gusts have been downing trees and power lines across portions
of northern Illinois. Several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have
been issued thus far due to the damage potential associated with
winds stronger than the already robust background flow and
multiple reports. This line, moving to the northeast at around 45
mph, will trek across the rest of the CWA through the remainder
of the morning into the early part of the afternoon. Severe
Thunderstorm Warning issuance will continue as needed through
early afternoon.

Several notable mesovortices have been popping up along the
leading edge, most short-lived and none too concerning at this
point. However, we will hang onto a chance for a few brief,
sporadic spin-ups as the line progresses eastward into a region of
300-400 m2/s2 of effective SRH. However, the shallow nature of
the storms and lack of instability thus far have precluded Tornado
Warning issuance, though we will certainly continue to closely
monitor mesovortices on radar for any stronger rotational signatures.


Doom/Castro
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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to 2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion

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