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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


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Some of the lightning/thunder that just passed through sounded epic.

I was watching south seeing flashes in the distance with the rolling thunder going across. 

At one point it sounded like it had a helicopter chopper cutting up the deep thunder thinking from bouncing off the terrain etc. 


 

Sometimes these late night storms have some of the best storm sound. Top stuff. 

 

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On 5/31/2022 at 7:21 PM, Hoosier said:

To me it doesn't look like a good pattern for appreciable severe chances though.  I'd love to be wrong about that but I fear we may be waiting until mid-month for more robust severe prospects.

RC confirms :(.  Maybe southern sub can sneak something coming up.

 

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022

Saturday through Thursday...

Main Highlights:

* Unsettled and at times showery pattern starting later Saturday,
  occasionally accompanied by thunder chances, though overall
  plenty of dry time and minimal to no severe weather threats

 

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

RC confirms :(.  Maybe southern sub can sneak something coming up.

 

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 2 2022

Saturday through Thursday...

Main Highlights:

* Unsettled and at times showery pattern starting later Saturday,
  occasionally accompanied by thunder chances, though overall
  plenty of dry time and minimal to no severe weather threats

 

July will be rockin'

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1 hour ago, mob1 said:

PDS warning with this storm 

Screenshot_2022-06-08-19-30-00-27_d742e5e24846c0b0ac98c1cecc909937.jpg

looks like that tornado went south of Hocking Hills state park (caves and waterfalls) that I camped at about 3 times in my life.

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GFS steadily coming down with EHI values for next week as the "event" draws closer. The trough and associated dynamics lift NE around the ridge of juicy tropical air instead of overspreading it and popping the lid off. Typical. Will still probably be some storms somewhere but not optimistic about the prospects of a good :twister:chase.

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I don't know if anything will manage to go near the I-80 corridor on Monday but if it does, look out.  Pretty volatile environment.

Prior to today I would have said it would be dry, but more recent guidance is trying to resolve an MCV that originates from Front Range convection on Sunday. This MCV then moves east and rounds the ridge into the area for Monday.

That solution is likely the only way we see much of anything in the area.
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Although SPC only has 5%, I think there is definitely some conditional sig severe potential. 

Looking at Monday, while freezing levels are on the high side, any stronger cell would have the potential of dropping some big hail in the presence of very steep mid level lapse rates and high CAPE.  How much activity can occur near the warm front is unclear.

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Some of the models have what I call Nintendo parameters on Monday... it's almost like you're in a video game and it's not real.  Extremely impressive on the NAM in particular, but again the question is how much activity can occur along the front.

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There's a hatched 15% wind area on the day 2 outlook, owing to the uncertainty/varying scenarios but with higher end potential.

 

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday across parts of
   the northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great
   Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
   tornadoes all appear possible. Some of the winds could be
   significantly severe (75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio
   Valley Monday afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large-scale upper trough initially over the western CONUS will
   move slowly eastward across the Intermountain West on Monday,
   eventually reaching the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High
   Plains by late Monday night. An upper-level ridge should persist
   over much of the MS Valley into the Southeast, with another upper
   low forecast to remain over Quebec. Enhanced west-northwesterly
   mid-level flow should be present over parts of the Midwest into the
   Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on the northeast side of
   the upper ridge.

   At the surface, a lee cyclone should consolidate over the northern
   and central High Plains by Monday evening, with another low over
   southern Saskatchewan. Rich low-level moisture should return
   northward across much of the northern Plains along/east of a front
   extending between the two surface lows. A warm front is also
   expected to lift northward across parts of the Midwest into the
   Great Lakes and OH Valley through the day, with a very moist
   low-level airmass present along/south of the warm front.

   ...Northern Plains...
   Modest mid-level height falls and ascent preceding an upper trough
   should overspread parts of the northern Plains by Monday evening.
   Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass to the east of a front
   should encourage the development of moderate to strong instability
   by late Monday afternoon across parts of western SD and vicinity.
   Strong deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will easily support supercells
   with any convection that can develop and persist. Most guidance
   suggests that thunderstorms will initially develop by late Monday
   afternoon across far northeastern WY/southeastern MT, and quickly
   strengthen as they spread northeastward across western/central SD
   and ND Monday evening/night.

   The rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will
   support a threat for both large hail and severe winds with
   supercells as the dominant mode initially. Some of the hail could be
   very large (2+ inches) across parts of western SD and vicinity
   Monday afternoon/evening, as steep mid-level lapse rates and
   2000-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be present. With time, some
   upscale growth into a cluster may occur across ND Monday night as a
   cold front moves eastward. Given the large amount of buoyancy
   forecast, damaging winds and hail may continue to be a threat even
   if convection becomes slightly elevated. A few tornadoes may also
   occur with any supercell, mainly late Monday afternoon and early
   evening, across parts of western SD into ND as low-level shear
   increases.

   ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
   Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday
   morning across parts of the Midwest (IA/MN and vicinity). This
   activity could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat as it moves
   eastward Monday morning. There may be an MCV associated with this
   morning convection, and some guidance also shows a corresponding
   mid-level vorticity maximum and enhancement to the mid-level winds.
   Although details in convective evolution remain unclear Monday
   afternoon, there is increasing concern that redevelopment of intense
   thunderstorms could occur with the MCV across parts of southern
   WI/northern IL into southern Lower MI, IN, and OH. Strong to extreme
   instability (MLCAPE 3000-5500+ J/kg) will likely develop along/south
   of a warm front across these areas. Low to mid 70s surface
   dewpoints, strong diurnal heating, and steep mid-level lapse rates
   will all contribute to this large reservoir of buoyancy. 35-45+ kt
   of deep-layer shear should also be present with the enhanced
   mid-level west-northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of
   the upper ridge.

   This volatile environment will support significant severe potential
   with any thunderstorms that can form along/south of the warm front.
   At this point, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty
   with where/if thunderstorms redevelop by Monday afternoon. Both
   global and convection-allowing model guidance show large variability
   in possible solutions, which range from little to no surface-based
   convective redevelopment, to an intense, bowing MCS sweeping
   southeastward in a narrow corridor across parts of the Midwest into
   the OH Valley through Monday evening. Given these uncertainties,
   have opted to include greater (15%) severe wind probabilities and
   add a significant severe wind area where confidence in an MCS
   occurring is somewhat better. Isolated large hail may occur with any
   embedded supercell. A few tornadoes also appear possible, as
   low-level shear will be maximized along and just south of the warm
   front.

   If confidence in the MCS scenario occurring increases, then even
   greater severe probabilities would likely be needed owing to the
   very favorable thermodynamic environment. The eastern/southern
   extent of the severe threat is also uncertain, so have expanded the
   Marginal Risk across the OH Valley into the central Appalachians to
   account for a broad range of possible tracks to the MCS before it
   eventually weakens Monday night.

   ..Gleason.. 06/12/2022

 

day2probotlk_0600_wind.gif

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