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The Great CAPE Weak Sauce Storm (or Disappointment and Hindenburg like Fail)


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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well from what I see it is definitely farther north with the precip. But it's like nearly 45 and rain. 

That's the problem with the 'less digging' idea with the NS vort- the cold will lag behind. Need more interaction sooner- and this run did it somewhat, but not enough.

1645974000-xajAltSan8w.png

1645974000-kUkSg1kwMJE.png

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

And the temps are really barely marginal even at 12z Sunday when precip starts. The cold air really doesn't get in until after that wave departs unfortunately. 

At least we have some sort of storm getting reeled back in. That’s my take away for now. 

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Just now, CAPE said:

That's the problem with the 'less digging' idea with the NS vort- the cold will lag behind. Need more interaction sooner- and this run did it somewhat, but not enough.

1645974000-xajAltSan8w.png

1645974000-kUkSg1kwMJE.png

Exactly. Would need the NS to get in there more rather than staying back and effectively acting as a cold front that goes through later. 

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22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We need trends! I'm good with this for now, in addition to the 120 I am sipping on. Pretty decent HH.

Hopefully this Is the start of a new trend. Seems like it anyway.


Nice on the 120! Actually heading to Ten Eyck, Dewey, and finishing with DFH for dinner in Rehoboth tomorrow night. Work / RnD trip with my dad.  :drunk:

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12 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

My old non scientific standard that never fails me, you can worry about getting precip or you can worry about getting cold temps. If you have to worry about getting both, it ain't happening. Not one storm in my life worked out where I had to root for both. 

Another positive statement

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2 hours ago, Scraff said:

Hopefully this Is the start of a new trend. Seems like it anyway.


Nice on the 120! Actually heading to Ten Eyck, Dewey, and finishing with DFH for dinner in Rehoboth tomorrow night. Work / RnD trip with my dad.  :drunk:

Nice! Enjoy.

I might be looking for a "next" career soon. Maybe you can hook me up. :P

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These people at Mount Holly don't seem to understand.

Quieter weather expected for the long term with high pressure bringing fair but chilly conditions for Saturday with plenty of sunshine followed by the approach of the next upper level trough and an associated cold front Sunday. It will be warmer Sunday ahead of this feature but there will also be the chance for some rain/snow showers. Thankfully, model consensus keeps the threat for southern-stream precipitation Sunday well south of our area with the cold front remaining a little slower and not able to phase with this energy over the Southeast.

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Difficult to see how this can work out given how things have 'evolved' on the guidance over the last day or so. In a nutshell the northern stream energy has no sharpness and no dig. It is a broad, flattish vorticity lobe with the vorticity spread out within that lobe. Earlier runs were depicting a sharper, more elongated wave that dropped down the east side of the ridge far enough west that it was able to interact with the shortwave ejecting out of the SW.

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