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February 24/25 Potential Winter Storm


mikem81
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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

13 months ? Jeez

I saw 2 storms 6+  this winter 

It's not like it hasn't snowed. There have been a good number of 1-2" events. But we always want more and bigger. I know you enjoyed your two solid events, but I bet you were still a little jealous of LI, SE CT, and SNJ when they got 12+. 

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For what it's worth, Lee Goldberg was just on and showing a futurecast that looked a lot like the GFS/NAM, i.e., a bit of snow (an inch or two for NYC), then a fair amount of sleet, then maybe a bit of ZR and then rain, but not rain until 8-9 am, which would mean a real mess on even NYC streets with temps around 32F and 1-2" of snow and 2-3" of sleet (which is 6-9" of snow equivalent) for 7-11" of snow equivalent, which makes sense as those two models are showing nearly 1" of LE by 7 am before any rain.  I don't think anyone is thinking this storm will be as impactful as the GFS/NAM are showing right now for the immediate NYC/NENJ/LI area (and maybe even down into CNJ north of the Raritan/202, which would include me).  Those Tidbits maps show a ton of sleet.  

And the CMC got "snowier" vs. 12Z, according to the Pivotal snow depth map, which I believe is mostly sleet and which I don't believe is at 3:1 ratios (maybe 5:1, since it's probably some snow and sleet); Tidbits doesn't show sleet as snow on the CMC. 

gfs_asnow_neus_12.png

 

namconus_asnow_neus_25.png

trend-gdps-2022022300-f072_snod.us_ma.gif.fe6e31dc3d9dce1dc361dd23fe330003.gif

 

Hey @MGorse- you were very helpful answering my questions about how the NWS does take into account snow/liquid ratios in their snowfall forecasts a few weeks ago (as per internal calcs, not Kuchera), so thought I'd throw out another question.  Does the NWS ever put out sleet accumulation forecasts or are they just folded into the snowfall forecasts at maybe 3:1 sleet:liquid ratios?  I've never seen any, but maybe I've missed it.  IMO, sleet is greatly underestimated by most with regard to impact, as 3" of sleet is roughly the same frozen mass as 10" of snow, both of which have about the same impact on driving (apart from visibility impacts) and snow removal - so it would be nice to have sleet maps or somehow factored in better in the snow maps.  Thanks, in advance, for any insights.  

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10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's not like it hasn't snowed. There have been a good number of 1-2" events. But we always want more and bigger. I know you enjoyed your two solid events, but I bet you were still a little jealous of LI, SE CT, and SNJ when they got 12+. 

Of course 

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5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Im only at 15.5 up here north of 84 but this one will help. 

I like the southern Catskills to the CT-MA border for the jackpot zone. But if the model consensus is a hair too warm, you might be golden where you're at. Max QPF may end up just south of where the max snow is currently forecasted. If that lines up with a snow column it's double digits.

I'm rooting for you because your area is due. If and when you mix with sleet you may not change over completely since mid-level warming will be weakening over time and there may be a dynamical cooling element to ptype with a shallow layer above freezing.

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2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I am a little surprised that this thread is not more active,,,,I mean it is not as if this event is a week away as we are now looking at 48 hours away. There is a good amount of moisture and some good trends thus far and the models are not light years apart

People don't really care about a slop event. You have to go to SNE to get a snowfall.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll take rain over an icy slop any day. The only time I don't mind sleet and ZR is if it's on top of a few inches of snow. 

It's good for snowpacks and that's about it. 

Nope, I'll take a bit of snow, some sleet and a little ZR (which is much less impactful on top of snow/sleet) over rain any day...

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

2003 to 2022

Coating to 6…Light

6-12…………Moderate 

12-24………Heavy

24-36………Real Accumulations 

1979 to 1993

Coating to 3….Light 

3-6…………Moderate

6-12…….…Heavy

12-24……..Real Accumulations 

lol

I have my own definitions

under 1"  coating

1-3" light

3-6" moderate

6-10" significant

10-20" major

20"+ historic

30"+ biblical

 

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3 hours ago, eduggs said:

It's not like it hasn't snowed. There have been a good number of 1-2" events. But we always want more and bigger. I know you enjoyed your two solid events, but I bet you were still a little jealous of LI, SE CT, and SNJ when they got 12+. 

Brooklyn and Queens are actually part of Long Island and they got similar totals in those storms to what Nassau County got.

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6 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

We sleet. In these type of set ups i find that the changeover line likes to hover around S.I while areas just N sleets 

Exactly. It’s always good to throw in a little historical precedent. I have been doing snow removal on the far uws while living on the south shore for about a decade. I have experienced many events with similar setups where we have significantly more frozen on the uws then the south shore. There have even been several events with plowable snow/ice on the uws where it’s mainly rain on the SS. 
 

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Almost the entire state of MA is 6+ (10:1) on every model. So jealous. It's been almost 13 months since I saw 6" of snow here in Morris County. For some areas this will be #3 or 4 this winter alone. Spoiled fckers. 

Dude, sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you. I live here, too, and we got hammered last year. You’re not going win them all.


.
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6 minutes ago, North and West said:


Eh, of course we love snow, but even my sixth grader doesn’t want another snow day and doesn’t want his baseball fields muddied up. We’re getting into that time of winter for a very wet snow that melts into a field soaking mess.


.

This is what I hated when I played little league. We should be expecting this every year.

Spring sucks in our area

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is what I hated when I played little league. We should be expecting this every year.

Spring sucks in our area

Spring is a month away. When I grew up on SI in the 70's,nobody was worried about baseball field conditions In February 

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