midatlanticweather Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 This is gonna be close… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Decent storm here. A lot of distant thunder really faded as storm got here, but had a tiny bit of very small hail and it was fairly gusty with some much-needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Round 1 (or final round) - that storm hit Monkton area pretty square. I got caught in it on 83 trying to get home - hit a hail core around mile marker 25 trying to get to exit 27. Lots of large limbs down after I exited and had to turn around and find back way home as some sort of downed limb or tree had monkton road blocked just beyond volunteer fire station in hereford. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Cone of silence! Heard ONE, yes ONE rumble of thunder here. All bark, no bite. Before it blew in (haha) I had to snap the sky, it was MEAN looking! YT video processing, will update with link but in the meantime... Ok here's some video. The original is HDR10 UHD and it will (eventually) work once processed but for now it's here: 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 SLGT risk added on 2000 SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 CAMs look decent for some of us this afternoon. Seems it will be a garden variety severe day - a scattering of reports possible but nothing history-making. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: CAMs look decent for some of us this afternoon. Seems it will be a garden variety severe day - a scattering of reports possible but nothing history-making. Fine with me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Fairly respectable CAPE values across the area already. 1000+ for the metro corridor on MLCAPE and 2500+ SBCAPE. As forecast, we are on the southern fringe of a belt of shear. Mid-level lapse rates are not good, but low level lapse rates are steepening. DCAPE is lacking in the immediate metro corridor, better values in extreme southern Maryland and SEVA. We'll see if that expands with further heating. Theta-e is on the increase as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run! CAMS this morning has everyone socked in with clouds, but it's mostly sunny across the region. As they're getting a better handle on current conditions, they're pumping a better line out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexderiemer Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 MCD outSent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 minute ago, alexderiemer said: MCD out Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Yup. 80% chance for a blue box today: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1323.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Flash Flood Watch for the DC/Balt corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Flash Flood Watch for the DC/Balt corridor Been up since this morning. It's been pretty dry recently and the storm motion today seems progressive. Guess it's more for the urbanized watersheds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Been up since this morning. It's been pretty dry recently and the storm motion today seems progressive. Guess it's more for the urbanized watersheds. FFG is like 1.5-2" for 1 hour in DC proper. A good complex of storms could do that I guess. Elsewhere is 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: CAMS this morning has everyone socked in with clouds, but it's mostly sunny across the region. As they're getting a better handle on current conditions, they're pumping a better line out. for once it was actually genuinely sunny and heated things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Looks like some stuff initiating out near Martinsburg WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm up for BR and eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Radar pretty weak sauce so far. But some of the CAMs liked more around the 0z timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 The long cell in the area (between Hagerstown and Martinsburg) appears to be right along the surface trough that WPC analyzed out that way in the last update. Runs tilting NE to SW to the west of the more populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Radarscope is tagging the Frederick/Washington County warned cell as having max hail of 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Everything north for the time being. Radar very, very quiet locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 37 minutes ago, yoda said: Radarscope is tagging the Frederick/Washington County warned cell as having max hail of 2.5" 3.25" just over the border now in Adams County PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Weird line forming along Mason-Dixon. Can hear the occasional thunder from that at the Lowe's in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Tor possible tag on the newly warned cell out in Frederick/Jefferson counties moving SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 TOR possible tag on the SVR for Frederick County, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2 Share Posted July 2 Looks like it's trying a small hook near Antietam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Outflow visible in the Brunswick area and then arcing back towards the MoCo/Frederick County line. See if this boundary can trigger some activity closer to the actual city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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