2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[midatlanticweather]

[WxUSAF]

This is gonna be close…

[osfan24]

Decent storm here. A lot of distant thunder really faded as storm got here, but had a tiny bit of very small hail and it was fairly gusty with some much-needed rain. 

[North Balti Zen]

Round 1 (or final round) - that storm hit Monkton area pretty square. I got caught in it on 83 trying to get home - hit a hail core around mile marker 25 trying to get to exit 27.  Lots of large limbs down after I exited and had to turn around and find back way home as some sort of downed limb or tree had monkton road blocked just beyond volunteer fire station in hereford. 

[Stormfly]

Cone of silence!  Heard ONE, yes ONE rumble of thunder here.  All bark, no bite.
Before it blew in (haha) I had to snap the sky, it was MEAN looking!

YT video processing, will update with link but in the meantime...

Ok here's some video.  The original is HDR10 UHD and it will (eventually) work once processed but for now it's here:
 

 

[yoda]

SLGT risk added on 2000 SPC OTLK 

[North Balti Zen]

 

[Kmlwx]

CAMs look decent for some of us this afternoon. Seems it will be a garden variety severe day - a scattering of reports possible but nothing history-making. 

[mappy]

8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

CAMs look decent for some of us this afternoon. Seems it will be a garden variety severe day - a scattering of reports possible but nothing history-making. 

Fine with me! 

[Kmlwx]

Fairly respectable CAPE values across the area already. 1000+ for the metro corridor on MLCAPE and 2500+ SBCAPE. As forecast, we are on the southern fringe of a belt of shear. Mid-level lapse rates are not good, but low level lapse rates are steepening. DCAPE is lacking in the immediate metro corridor, better values in extreme southern Maryland and SEVA. We'll see if that expands with further heating. Theta-e is on the increase as well. 

[Kmlwx]

14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run! 

[Eskimo Joe]

57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run! 

CAMS this morning has everyone socked in with clouds, but it's mostly sunny across the region. As they're getting a better handle on current conditions, they're pumping a better line out.

[alexderiemer]

MCD out

Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, alexderiemer said:

MCD out

Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk
 

Yup. 80% chance for a blue box today:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1323.html

[MN Transplant]

Flash Flood Watch for the DC/Balt corridor 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Flash Flood Watch for the DC/Balt corridor 

Been up since this morning. It's been pretty dry recently and the storm motion today seems progressive. Guess it's more for the urbanized watersheds.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Been up since this morning. It's been pretty dry recently and the storm motion today seems progressive. Guess it's more for the urbanized watersheds.

FFG is like 1.5-2" for 1 hour in DC proper. A good complex of storms could do that I guess. Elsewhere is 2-3 inches. 

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

CAMS this morning has everyone socked in with clouds, but it's mostly sunny across the region. As they're getting a better handle on current conditions, they're pumping a better line out.

for once it was actually genuinely sunny and heated things up

[AmericanWxFreak]

Looks like some stuff initiating out near Martinsburg WV 

[yoda]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm up for BR and eastward

[Kmlwx]

Radar pretty weak sauce so far. But some of the CAMs liked more around the 0z timeframe. 

[Kmlwx]

The long cell in the area (between Hagerstown and Martinsburg) appears to be right along the surface trough that WPC analyzed out that way in the last update. Runs tilting NE to SW to the west of the more populated areas. 

[yoda]

Radarscope is tagging the Frederick/Washington County warned cell as having max hail of 2.5"

[Kmlwx]

Everything north for the time being. Radar very, very quiet locally. 

[yoda]

37 minutes ago, yoda said:

Radarscope is tagging the Frederick/Washington County warned cell as having max hail of 2.5"

3.25" just over the border now in Adams County PA

[Eskimo Joe]

Weird line forming along Mason-Dixon. Can hear the occasional thunder from that at the Lowe's in Westminster.

[yoda]

Tor possible tag on the newly warned cell out in Frederick/Jefferson counties moving SE

[Eskimo Joe]

TOR possible tag on the SVR for Frederick County, MD

[yoda]

Looks like it's trying a small hook near Antietam 

[Kmlwx]

Outflow visible in the Brunswick area and then arcing back towards the MoCo/Frederick County line. See if this boundary can trigger some activity closer to the actual city.