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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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Round 1 (or final round) - that storm hit Monkton area pretty square. I got caught in it on 83 trying to get home - hit a hail core around mile marker 25 trying to get to exit 27.  Lots of large limbs down after I exited and had to turn around and find back way home as some sort of downed limb or tree had monkton road blocked just beyond volunteer fire station in hereford. 

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Cone of silence!  Heard ONE, yes ONE rumble of thunder here.  All bark, no bite.
Before it blew in (haha) I had to snap the sky, it was MEAN looking!

YT video processing, will update with link but in the meantime...

x7FB3bP.jpg

Ok here's some video.  The original is HDR10 UHD and it will (eventually) work once processed but for now it's here:
 

 

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8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

CAMs look decent for some of us this afternoon. Seems it will be a garden variety severe day - a scattering of reports possible but nothing history-making. 

Fine with me! 

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Fairly respectable CAPE values across the area already. 1000+ for the metro corridor on MLCAPE and 2500+ SBCAPE. As forecast, we are on the southern fringe of a belt of shear. Mid-level lapse rates are not good, but low level lapse rates are steepening. DCAPE is lacking in the immediate metro corridor, better values in extreme southern Maryland and SEVA. We'll see if that expands with further heating. Theta-e is on the increase as well. 

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14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run! 

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57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

14z HRRR predicts initiation in the higher elevations/Blue Ridge area around 3pm with a cluster then growing upscale in NoVA and Central Maryland in the hours following. The lines/cluster pushes east of the bay on that model by 0z. Simulated echo tops get to around 40-50kft as well. Not too bad on that run! 

CAMS this morning has everyone socked in with clouds, but it's mostly sunny across the region. As they're getting a better handle on current conditions, they're pumping a better line out.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Flash Flood Watch for the DC/Balt corridor 

Been up since this morning. It's been pretty dry recently and the storm motion today seems progressive. Guess it's more for the urbanized watersheds.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Been up since this morning. It's been pretty dry recently and the storm motion today seems progressive. Guess it's more for the urbanized watersheds.

FFG is like 1.5-2" for 1 hour in DC proper. A good complex of storms could do that I guess. Elsewhere is 2-3 inches. 

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

CAMS this morning has everyone socked in with clouds, but it's mostly sunny across the region. As they're getting a better handle on current conditions, they're pumping a better line out.

for once it was actually genuinely sunny and heated things up

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The long cell in the area (between Hagerstown and Martinsburg) appears to be right along the surface trough that WPC analyzed out that way in the last update. Runs tilting NE to SW to the west of the more populated areas. 

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