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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


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24 minutes ago, yoda said:

mcd0943.gif

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0943
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0622 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

   Areas affected...central and southern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...

   Valid 272322Z - 280045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts, hail and a tornado or
   two continues with severe storms across parts of southern/central
   VA.

   DISCUSSION...Over the last 90 minutes, regional radar imagery showed
   a cluster of severe storms including several supercells becoming
   organized across parts of southern/central VA. Located within a
   pocket of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis, sufficient
   buoyancy exists to support robust updrafts for a few hours as storms
   track to the north and east. Co-located with the favorable buoyancy,
   area VAD VWPs show 40-50 kt of effective shear supportive of
   continued supercellular and short line segment modes being observed.
   Damaging wind gusts and some hail remain likely with the strongest
   storms as they are forecast to track northeastward into eastern VA
   and southern MD area over the next several hours. Additionally,
   subtle backing of the low-level southerly flow suggests somewhat
   stronger low-level shear as storms move north and east. This is also
   reflected by an increase in STP values to 1 on SPC mesoanalysis. A
   tornado or two will remain possible with the more dominate
   supercells inof the I-95 corridor over the next few hours.

   ..Lyons.. 05/27/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

Dominate lol

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
806 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

VAC099-280015-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220528T0015Z/
King George VA-
806 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KING GEORGE COUNTY...
    
At 806 PM EDT, Doppler weather radar indicated a tornado was located 
over Dahlgren, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying 
         debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. 
         Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile 
         homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely.

Locations impacted include...
Dahlgren and Nanjemoy Creek. 

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
800 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Orange County in central Virginia...
  Spotsylvania County in central Virginia...

* Until 845 PM EDT.

* At 800 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mineral,
  moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southeastern Orange and Spotsylvania Counties, including the
  following locations... Mine Run, Brokenburg, Parker, Snell, Alsop,
  Gold Dale, Gatewood, Thornhill, Logan and Glenora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 7771 3803 7773 3802 7775 3805 7775
      3805 7777 3808 7779 3808 7781 3811 7784
      3810 7784 3812 7791 3812 7798 3814 7800
      3814 7803 3833 7772 3822 7740 3801 7768
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 227DEG 19KT 3800 7793

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

TOR being issued for PG/Calvert. WISC CIMMS probs jumped to 17% chance of TOR on that.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
830 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Calvert County in southern Maryland...
  Southeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...
  Northeastern Charles County in southern Maryland...

* Until 900 PM EDT.

* At 830 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Golden Beach, or 7 miles west of Hallowing Point,
  moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Dunkirk around 855 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Lower
Marlboro, Eagle Harbor, Aquasco, Hughesville, Bryantown, Huntingtown
and Baden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
837 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern St. Marys County in southern Maryland...
  West central Calvert County in southern Maryland...
  Southeastern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...
  Eastern Charles County in southern Maryland...

* Until 900 PM EDT.

* At 836 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Golden Beach, or near Hallowing Point, moving
  northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Prince Frederick, Golden Beach, Huntingtown, Hughesville, Aquasco,
  Benedict and Eagle Harbor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I could see that segment getting an SVR on it. Velocities on IAD/DCA terminals aren't terrible.

Mesoanalysis does have some instability available in our area still. Not expecting anything widespread - but yeah a last hurrah SVR is not out of the question. I'm hearing some thunder here now. 

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