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Model Mayhem Snowstorm! 2/2-2/4


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12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I think this was from this morning..

Note of caution
though, the shortwave energy that eventually spins up this system is
just dropping south of Gulf of Alaska and really does not make to
the southwest CONUS until Wednesday morning. So, could be changes to
forecasts up to that point and with not much time for the system to
develop fully before impacting our area, *could* see changes in
forecasts until right up til the system lifts across the lower Great
Lakes and Northeast. Just something to keep in mind.

Greaaaat.

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32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I think this was from this morning..

Note of caution
though, the shortwave energy that eventually spins up this system is
just dropping south of Gulf of Alaska and really does not make to
the southwest CONUS until Wednesday morning. So, could be changes to
forecasts up to that point and with not much time for the system to
develop fully before impacting our area, *could* see changes in
forecasts until right up til the system lifts across the lower Great
Lakes and Northeast. Just something to keep in mind.

THANK YOU. Just what I was wondering. This will be a last-minute one for sure then as that's a huge piece of the puzzle. Enjoy the rollercoaster folks!

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9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

What are you worrying about? You're golden. It's here in the constant-riding-on-the-edge-increased-blood pressure zone that the sweating occurs.

I mean it’s not like I have a worship area like Serrano did in major league sacrificing live chickens in effort to o keep snow away from your location…at least not that I’m willing to admit…

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18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

What are you worrying about? You're golden. It's here in the constant-riding-on-the-edge-increased-blood pressure zone that the sweating occurs.

My ski trip is in middle/northern VT. The line will be close to what it is in Syracuse. I’d be singing a different tune if I was watching strictly for Rochester. Once again, IAG looks to be in the sweet spot!

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...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches
  or more possible.

* WHERE...All of western and north central New York.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.
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Just now, wolfie09 said:
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches
  or more possible.

* WHERE...All of western and north central New York.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

Impossible? Is this standard wording for a WSW?

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21 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

My ski trip is in middle/northern VT. The line will be close to what it is in Syracuse. I’d be singing a different tune if I was watching strictly for Rochester. Once again, IAG looks to be in the sweet spot!

Ohhh, that's right. Well, then, welcome to the Blood Pressure zone.

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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...Increasing potential for a long duration, impactful accumulating
snowfall during the mid week period...

A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for all of western and north
central New York Wednesday night through the first half of Friday.

Southwest flow of milder air continues into the region ahead of an
approaching cold front Wednesday morning. Temperatures may reach the
lower to mid 40s, especially for the lake plains and Genesee Valley
into the Finger Lakes. Could see a few showers of rain or rain/snow
mix sneak into the region from the northwest Wednesday morning,
but its not until the afternoon on Wednesday until the deeper
northward push of moisture transport reaches the area within the
background of broadening system relative isentropic ascent
along and immediately ahead of the advancing cold front. This
introduces the initial stage of an expected longer duration
precipitation event.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...

Gradual height falls tied the lead northern stream wave shearing
into central Ontario will draw the system cold front across the area
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Sustained ascent driven by
very moist system relative isentropic lift working over the
advancing boundary ensures an expanding coverage of precipitation
commences during this time. Rain may still be the predominant
precipitation time Wednesday evening before steady cooling of the
column allows for a change over to snow from north to south
probably from late evening or around midnight through the overnight.
Transition timing will likely impact accumulating snow potential
Wednesday night and at this point do not see this as the period of
the heaviest snow accumulations although several inches are
certainly possible before morning if the change over occurs early
enough in the night.

At this point in the forecast process believe that the best
potential for widespread accumulating snowfall will be Thursday into
Thursday night as several rounds of stronger ascent continue to
engage the elevated frontal zone. Do see diminishing ascent
commencing late Thursday night. However, north-northeast flow of
incoming arctic airmass will start to bring in some mesoscale
processes with lake response south of Lake Ontario likely coming
into play by the time we reach Friday morning.

Overall snow to liquid ratios starting out very wet in the 6:1 range
transitioning to a more standard 10-12:1 ratio by Thursday night. A
general blend of guidance including the GFS/CMC/EC suggesting a high
likelihood for snowfall total to exceed 9 inches through this time
period with the potential for more as we go into Friday.
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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

It's been standard wording for a long time.  I always find it funny because I'm usually out blasting around in it and it feels far from impossible.  

Grocery store clerk: "Oh, you getting the essentials before the big storm hits?"

Delta: "Uhhh, no. I just needed eggs and bread for French Toast."

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