Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Euro would be 12 to 18 for most of forum. With ratios Pretty much exactly half of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 EPS is north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I think this was from this morning.. Note of caution though, the shortwave energy that eventually spins up this system is just dropping south of Gulf of Alaska and really does not make to the southwest CONUS until Wednesday morning. So, could be changes to forecasts up to that point and with not much time for the system to develop fully before impacting our area, *could* see changes in forecasts until right up til the system lifts across the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Just something to keep in mind. Greaaaat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: EPS is north Saw that coming a mile away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Saw that coming a mile away. What are you worrying about? You're golden. It's here in the constant-riding-on-the-edge-increased-blood pressure zone that the sweating occurs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 32 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I think this was from this morning.. Note of caution though, the shortwave energy that eventually spins up this system is just dropping south of Gulf of Alaska and really does not make to the southwest CONUS until Wednesday morning. So, could be changes to forecasts up to that point and with not much time for the system to develop fully before impacting our area, *could* see changes in forecasts until right up til the system lifts across the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Just something to keep in mind. THANK YOU. Just what I was wondering. This will be a last-minute one for sure then as that's a huge piece of the puzzle. Enjoy the rollercoaster folks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Delaware guy looking to chase this one into NY state. Was thinking Albany, Euro is telling me thats not even close to far enough North. GFS is telling me its way too far north. Model mayhem continues. Try South Bend or Indy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: What are you worrying about? You're golden. It's here in the constant-riding-on-the-edge-increased-blood pressure zone that the sweating occurs. I mean it’s not like I have a worship area like Serrano did in major league sacrificing live chickens in effort to o keep snow away from your location…at least not that I’m willing to admit… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 GEFS/EPS seem pretty locked and loaded. Obviously going to be some subtle 50-75 mile shakes. But enough confidence for watches sometime today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS/EPS seem pretty locked and loaded. Obviously going to be some subtle 50-75 mile shakes. But enough confidence for watches sometime today. I agree. I think the op GFS is going to shift a bit NW again as we get closer to the 18z or 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: What are you worrying about? You're golden. It's here in the constant-riding-on-the-edge-increased-blood pressure zone that the sweating occurs. My ski trip is in middle/northern VT. The line will be close to what it is in Syracuse. I’d be singing a different tune if I was watching strictly for Rochester. Once again, IAG looks to be in the sweet spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Watches issued.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Watches issued.. And no mention of mix! Love the confidence! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more possible. * WHERE...All of western and north central New York. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Nice. Long-term watch. Love it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, wolfie09 said: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more possible. * WHERE...All of western and north central New York. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Impossible? Is this standard wording for a WSW? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Chiming in from snow-starved Harrisburg. Excited to follow as you guys get hammered with this late week system. Jealous! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: Impossible? Is this standard wording for a WSW? Been seeing it too much lately. Drama. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: Chiming in from snow-starved Harrisburg. Excited to follow as you guys get hammered with this late week system. Jealous! Same. Although not as excited as you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, vortmax said: Impossible? Is this standard wording for a WSW? It's been standard wording in WSW's the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, vortmax said: Impossible? Is this standard wording for a WSW? Sounds like a dare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Euro would be 12 to 18 for most of forum. With ratios Except ratios should be close to 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 21 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: My ski trip is in middle/northern VT. The line will be close to what it is in Syracuse. I’d be singing a different tune if I was watching strictly for Rochester. Once again, IAG looks to be in the sweet spot! Ohhh, that's right. Well, then, welcome to the Blood Pressure zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, vortmax said: Impossible? Is this standard wording for a WSW? I've only seen impossible travel in a few LES events here, impossible with synoptic. Just like atmospheric river, polar vortex, and BOMB cyclone its all for the media hype and clicks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 BGM updated their HWO at 3:08 pm with no watches yet. I wouldn't be surprised if they wait til tomorrow morning. They're quite a conservative office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It's been standard wording for a long time. I always find it funny because I'm usually out blasting around in it and it feels far from impossible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ...Increasing potential for a long duration, impactful accumulating snowfall during the mid week period... A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for all of western and north central New York Wednesday night through the first half of Friday. Southwest flow of milder air continues into the region ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday morning. Temperatures may reach the lower to mid 40s, especially for the lake plains and Genesee Valley into the Finger Lakes. Could see a few showers of rain or rain/snow mix sneak into the region from the northwest Wednesday morning, but its not until the afternoon on Wednesday until the deeper northward push of moisture transport reaches the area within the background of broadening system relative isentropic ascent along and immediately ahead of the advancing cold front. This introduces the initial stage of an expected longer duration precipitation event. Wednesday night through Thursday night... Gradual height falls tied the lead northern stream wave shearing into central Ontario will draw the system cold front across the area Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Sustained ascent driven by very moist system relative isentropic lift working over the advancing boundary ensures an expanding coverage of precipitation commences during this time. Rain may still be the predominant precipitation time Wednesday evening before steady cooling of the column allows for a change over to snow from north to south probably from late evening or around midnight through the overnight. Transition timing will likely impact accumulating snow potential Wednesday night and at this point do not see this as the period of the heaviest snow accumulations although several inches are certainly possible before morning if the change over occurs early enough in the night. At this point in the forecast process believe that the best potential for widespread accumulating snowfall will be Thursday into Thursday night as several rounds of stronger ascent continue to engage the elevated frontal zone. Do see diminishing ascent commencing late Thursday night. However, north-northeast flow of incoming arctic airmass will start to bring in some mesoscale processes with lake response south of Lake Ontario likely coming into play by the time we reach Friday morning. Overall snow to liquid ratios starting out very wet in the 6:1 range transitioning to a more standard 10-12:1 ratio by Thursday night. A general blend of guidance including the GFS/CMC/EC suggesting a high likelihood for snowfall total to exceed 9 inches through this time period with the potential for more as we go into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: It's been standard wording for a long time. I always find it funny because I'm usually out blasting around in it and it feels far from impossible. Same. I can count on one hand how many events made me say why am I out here in this I should be home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: It's been standard wording for a long time. I always find it funny because I'm usually out blasting around in it and it feels far from impossible. Grocery store clerk: "Oh, you getting the essentials before the big storm hits?" Delta: "Uhhh, no. I just needed eggs and bread for French Toast." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Grocery store clerk: "Oh, you getting the essentials before the big storm hits?" Delta: "Uhhh, no. I just needed eggs and bread for French Toast." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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