TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: Unkmet is better than the icon for sure. I follow em all buddy. Ukmet is actually father north than last night Yeah, I noticed that. It actaully looks very close to the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, I noticed that. It actaully looks very close to the GFS. I think 10 to 1 would be too low of ratios. More like 13 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: True. I just hate that it's showing that ugly downsloping for this area. Looks like chances for you may be increasing as well. GFS tends to overdo the downsloping for ENY (as well as not handling effects of terrain too well overall here), but you know your area much better than I do. How does Syracuse usually downslope...off the Tug? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Takes certain conditions ne wind but Oswego county can downslope hard. 2 minutes ago, Stash said: GFS tends to overdo the downsloping for ENY (as well as not handling effects of terrain too well overall here), but you know your area much better than I do. How does Syracuse usually downslope...off the Tug? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Stash said: GFS tends to overdo the downsloping for ENY (as well as not handling effects of terrain too well overall here), but you know your area much better than I do. How does Syracuse usually downslope...off the Tug? Yeah, NE winds off the Tug can lead to downsloping here. The local posters on here said that we don't usually downslope, but I have seen it a couple times. These SWFEs seem to have increased chances of it. Last February's storm was awful with downsloping here, while the southern part of Onondaga county wasn't affected. It affects Oswego county much worse. If the winds are weak, the impact can be very minimal for further south down here. In Onondaga county, it seems our friend in Brewerton (the northern tip of the county) has seen downsloping during synoptic events the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, NE winds off the Tug can lead to downsloping here. The local posters on here said that we don't usually downslope, but I have seen it a couple times. These SWFEs seem to have increased chances of it. Last February's storm was awful with downsloping here, while the southern part of Onondaga county wasn't affected. It affects Oswego county much worse. If the winds are weak, the impact can be very minimal for further south down here. In Onondaga county, it seems our friend in Brewerton (the northern tip of the county) has seen downsloping during synoptic events the most. I have seen it even affect eastern wayne county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'm hoping for a mix of strong cold air and more phasing. Maybe a NW correction at the end, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yeah, NE winds off the Tug can lead to downsloping here. The local posters on here said that we don't usually downslope, but I have seen it a couple times. These SWFEs seem to have increased chances of it. Last February's storm was awful with downsloping here, while the southern part of Onondaga county wasn't affected. It affects Oswego county much worse. If the winds are weak, the impact can be very minimal for further south down here. In Onondaga county, it seems our friend in Brewerton (the northern tip of the county) has seen downsloping during synoptic events the most. Could be wrong but i'm Not feeling a major downslope concern with this storm. If any, i suspect it will be more subtle than pronounced. Will higher elevations get more qpf? Sure. They usually do. I haven't dove into models yet as it's too far out. Maybe Tombo has. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Could be wrong but i'm Not feeling a major downslope concern with this storm. If any, i suspect it will be more subtle than pronounced. Will higher elevations get more qpf? Sure. They usually do. I haven't dove into models yet as it's too far out. Maybe Tombo has. I can see that being true. That's lots of moisture riding in. The GFS does reduce that amount pretty drastically, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 EC running. Seems to keep the clipper a bit weaker than GFS. Wonder if that encourages a more NW positioning of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I would think so. Also depends on strength of that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro is more progressive through hour 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 THe high isn't pushing as much - early it's NW but it's more the second wave I'm watching... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I actually think this could end up further NW than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro is slightly more amped. Going to be another huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 This is going to bury a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looks more nw to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Looks more nw to me. It is Not alot of pv confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Looks more nw to me. YOu want the second wave and this is going to give it. THe first stuff is much smaller... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 HEre it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Going to get crushed in euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 I think it went SE like 5-10 miles? Very similar to last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Kissin' the taint! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 More nw than o6z no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think it went SE like 5-10 miles? Very similar to last night. Nam like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Lovely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think it went SE like 5-10 miles? Very similar to last night. Holy $h!t !!!! Gonna be a crushjob here. My god !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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