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February 2022


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Temperatures surged into the middle 50s across much of the region today. Some areas matched or beat their daily records.

Islip: 56° (old record: 54°, 2001)
New York City-JFK: 56° (tied record set in 2001)

Much of the rest of this week will see above normal temperatures before the next cold front reaches the region during the weekend. That cold shot will likely be fairly sharp but short-lived. An offshore storm could bring a light snow to parts of the region late Sunday into Monday.

There is consensus on the long range ensembles that the second half of February will likely experience a significant pattern change. Ridging would develop in the East with the persistent trough heading westward. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings after mid-month.

The warmer pattern will likely prevail through at least the end of February. Some guidance suggests that readings could rise to well above normal levels during the closing week of the month.

The EPS continues to forecast the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern around February 20th. Such a pattern favors above to much above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +10.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.795.

On February 8 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.061 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.153 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.8° above normal).

 

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Hell no

this forum is going to empty out until the first summer super heatwave.  No one cares about any other kind of weather here and they shouldn't  Severe weather sure, but it rarely happens on the coast and the chances of it happening are so small in the spring around here that it's not worth bothering about until May.  I think we'll end up in the political sub forum duking it out before the end of February lol.

Now there's a place where the drama never ends lol.

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures surged into the middle 50s across much of the region today. Some areas matched or beat their daily records.

Islip: 56° (old record: 54°, 2001)
New York City-JFK: 56° (tied record set in 2001)

Much of the rest of this week will see above normal temperatures before the next cold front reaches the region during the weekend. That cold shot will likely be fairly sharp but short-lived. An offshore storm could bring a light snow to parts of the region late Sunday into Monday.

There is consensus on the long range ensembles that the second half of February will likely experience a significant pattern change. Ridging would develop in the East with the persistent trough heading westward. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings after mid-month.

The warmer pattern will likely prevail through at least the end of February. Some guidance suggests that readings could rise to well above normal levels during the closing week of the month.

The EPS continues to forecast the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern around February 20th. Such a pattern favors above to much above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +10.09 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.795.

On February 8 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.061 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.153 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.8° above normal).

 

Don there wont be a significant pattern change in the second half of February.

It already happened lol, this is the pattern change the warm weather is here.  The whatever we get Sunday is just a small gnat on the windshield of warmth thats already here

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Hopefully, the 2 week cool down in March will wind up cooler than modeled with perhaps a well-timed storm.

2 week cooldown, Don?  When is that supposed to happen- around March 15th?

On average our last measurable snowfall is around March 20th so timed well with the equinox.  I think our first measurable snowfall averages around December 20th, timed well with the solstice.

 

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don there wont be a significant pattern change in the second half of February.

It already happened lol, this is the pattern change the warm weather is here.  The whatever we get Sunday is just a small gnat on the windshield of warmth thats already here

 

My reference deals with sustained ridging returning to the East. Warmth has developed sooner. February 1-10 was about 1.5 degrees above normal.

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2 week cooldown, Don?  When is that supposed to happen- around March 15th?

On average our last measurable snowfall is around March 20th so timed well with the equinox.  I think our first measurable snowfall averages around December 20th, timed well with the solstice.

 

After the 1st week in March.

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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i love cold springs maybe it will last well into may.. some may and june days not to long ago had temps in the 90;s so i will enjoy the cold or cool weather for as long as it can last until summer  is here to stay..

No. Cold past april is depressing. After april give us 60s and 70s. 

If its cold its usually misty and foggy under cloudy skies with temps in the 40s. No ty

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The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(33/48) or +5.

Month to date is  35.9[+1.6].      Should be. 37.7[+3.1] by the 19th.

Ground white or up to 2" snow Sunday/Monday on the strength of low T/high ratio?

Reached 54 here yesterday.

Today: 55, m. clear, few clouds, wind s.

44*(48%RH) here at 6am.     42* at 7am.        47* at Noon.       Only reached 48* at 5pm.        Up to 53* at 11pm.

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

this forum is going to empty out until the first summer super heatwave.  No one cares about any other kind of weather here and they shouldn't  Severe weather sure, but it rarely happens on the coast and the chances of it happening are so small in the spring around here that it's not worth bothering about until May.  I think we'll end up in the political sub forum duking it out before the end of February lol.

Now there's a place where the drama never ends lol.

You did it again. 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and very mild. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania could see the mercury approach or reach 60°. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 60°

Temperatures will remain above normal into the weekend before colder air returns on Sunday. A light snowfall is possible in parts of the region on Sunday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 41.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 42.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.4°; 15-Year: 43.2°

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Record warmth and record snowfall have become the new winter normals on Long Island. 
 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0421 PM EDT THU FEB 10 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 56 WAS SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT 
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 54 SET IN 2001.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
616 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT ISLIP NY FOR JANUARY 29TH...

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT ISLIP NY FOR ANY CALENDAR DAY...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 23.5 INCHES WAS SET AT ISLIP NY FOR JANUARY 29TH.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 1.5 INCHES SET IN 2014.

THIS SNOWFALL OF 23.5 INCHES ON JANUARY 29TH 2022 ALSO BREAKS THE 
PREVIOUS CALENDAR DAY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RECORD OF 23.4 INCHES OF 
SNOWFALL RECORDED ON JANUARY 23RD 2016.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
0206 PM EDT SUN JAN 02 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 58 WAS SET AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT 
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 57 SET IN 2000.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
137 AM EST FRI DEC 17 2021

...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 52 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY 
YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAK THE OLD RECORD OF 49 SET IN 1971.

RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1963 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.
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14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro mjo Goes right through 3-4 then 5 by the end of this month .

This MJO wave may be important as to what type of weather patterns we get next winter. El Niño events usually need the MJO to make a strong push into phase 7 in March. That phase in the WPAC usually brings a WWB pattern which warms the Pacific. Both the EPS and GEFS have the MJO going into phases 4-5 for the rest of February and early March. If the MJO stalls out again near phase 6 in early March, then any return to cooler in March will get pushed back. The MJO not making a strong enough push into 7 could also mean the ENSO gets struck in neutral with a La Niña background state possibly  remaining entrenched again for next winter. 
 

1F67DFDF-25AD-4F42-B2D4-B11EBF03FFC1.gif.4803e74f7eb61a5f05e890378ab3df57.gif

C738EBED-1B10-48EF-AEEC-25D4E524FBF5.gif.f7b94773e48ddc0ef70c9395b9808e7b.gif

 

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