February 2022

[donsutherland1]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don when is the AO going to get down to something more reasonable for wintry weather?

 

It’s tough to be sure. The wave lengths are shortening, so that adds complexity. I still suspect that we’ll see at least some accumulations of snow in March and that there might be a window of opportunity for at least a moderate snowfall.

[gravitylover]

11 hours ago, Rjay said:

People need to stop looking at snow maps and computer generated precip type bs.   

Until these things were available we didn't see the kind of extreme event emotion we see now. As more layers and solutions are offered it gets worse. 

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of February are averaging 34degs.(25/44) or -4.

Month to date is  37.8[+2.2].        February should end at  37.4[+1.5].

Reached an unexpected 46 here yesterday.

Today: 34-38, wind nw. to w., few clouds, 30 tomorrow AM.

First 10 days of March   41(35/46) or +2 and snow less.    GEFS says only 60% chance of at least 1" in the next 384hrs.

Snows are over.    70's and SPF-15 OK for now.

25*(54%RH) here today.      30* at 11am.      32* at Noon.       34* at 1pm.       38* at 3pm.       Reached 40* at 4pm.        36* at 6pm.

[wdrag]

Pattern as outlined by others previously- unreliable UKMET has 6" for the I84 corridor this coming week. Definitely for the I84 folks, do not want to be dismissive about this pattern. Also, am not seeing lots of warmth this week til maybe the 6th. Shortwave dropping se from Canada are the culprit.

[bluewave]

A record breaking 7th warmer than average winter in a row for our area. The SE Ridge or WAR has been a dominant player since the historic December 2015 +13.3 departure. So the limited colder departures end up further west away from this persistent 500 mb height anomaly. 

 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Until these things were available we didn't see the kind of extreme event emotion we see now. As more layers and solutions are offered it gets worse. 

Good morning gravity it brought to mind the saying “a little learning is a dangerous thing” from a 1709 Alexander Pope poem. The question remains, for some of us, ….. is more better? Stay well, as always …..

[KEITH L.I]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A record breaking 7th warmer than average winter in a row for our area. The SE Ridge or WAR has been a dominant player since the historic December 2015 +13.3 departure. So the limited colder departures end up further west away from this persistent 500 mb height anomaly. 

 

So a warm December, cold January, with a big snowstorm, blizzard for Long Island, slightly above normal February..Overall below average snowfall.We'll have to see if we can get near normal snowfall in March

[wishcast_hater]

Took a brief walk on my property this morning - my sleet pack is literally a glacier which can support my 200+ pounds of weight without even caving in.  Haven't experienced that since i was a kid. 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

So a warm December, cold January, with a big snowstorm, blizzard for Long Island, slightly above normal February..Overall below average snowfall.We'll have to see if we can get near normal snowfall in March

The snowfall distribution this winter was the opposite of last year with the progressive +AO pattern. Coastal sections did much better than interior areas this winter. Last winter the south based -AO allowed the storms to tuck in near SNJ with heavier snowfall further to the west.

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The snowfall distribution this winter was the opposite of last year with the progressive +AO pattern. Coastal sections did much better than interior areas this winter. Last winter the south based -AO allowed the storms to tuck in near SNJ with heavier snowfall further to the west.

 

Every storm was near coastal SNJ which I found interesting. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Until these things were available we didn't see the kind of extreme event emotion we see now. As more layers and solutions are offered it gets worse. 

It was only for the big events....for one thing there werent any extreme events between Feb 1983 and Mar 1993 and then it was sporadic (just Mar 1993 and Jan 1996) before the madness that began in the 2000s lol.

Mar 2001 would have sent this board over the edge

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The snowfall distribution this winter was the opposite of last year with the progressive +AO pattern. Coastal sections did much better than interior areas this winter. Last winter the south based -AO allowed the storms to tuck in near SNJ with heavier snowfall further to the west.

 

One would think a +AO would favor inland areas.....wasn't this the case during the mid 80s thru early 90s?  It was all about N/W

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

One would think a +AO would favor inland areas.....wasn't this the case during the mid 80s thru early 90s?  It was all about N/W

 

I thought a negative PNA also favors inland areas.

[the_other_guy]

48 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

So a warm December, cold January, with a big snowstorm, blizzard for Long Island, slightly above normal February..Overall below average snowfall.We'll have to see if we can get near normal snowfall in March

Most of the sub forum is well below normal as that blizzard only produced big for immediate coast

 

In particular HV had a terrible year for snow.

Very similar to 2015 in snow gradient… Not quite as extreme

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

One would think a +AO would favor inland areas.....wasn't this the case during the mid 80s thru early 90s?  It was all about N/W

 

We have to view the +AO configuration this winter in the broader context of what the other telconnections were doing. The strong Janaury +PNA  put the trough in the East. But the +AO prevented the upper lows from closing off until the surface lows got east of the benchmark. Last winter the upper lows were closing off early to our SW with the strong south based -AO. The surface lows all tucked in near SNJ. So Binghamton is currently in 2nd place for lowest seasonal snowfall through the 25th. While ACY is currently the 10th snowiest on record. The places were reversed last winter. BGM was 16th snowiest with  ACY the 17th least snowiest.

 

Time Series Summary for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15	Missing Count
1	2016-05-15	32.0	0
2	2022-05-15	43.0	79
3	2012-05-15	43.5	0
4	1989-05-15	47.8	0
5	1969-05-15	52.0	0
6	1995-05-15	52.8	0
7	1992-05-15	56.0	0
8	1980-05-15	56.8	0
9	1981-05-15	59.3	0
10	2002-05-15	61.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15	Missing Count
1	2010-05-15	58.1	0
2	1967-05-15	46.9	0
3	1996-05-15	46.4	0
4	2014-05-15	43.8	0
5	1979-05-15	43.1	0
6	2003-05-15	42.3	0
7	1964-05-15	38.1	0
8	2011-05-15	38.0	0
9	2018-05-15	34.1	0
10	2022-05-15	33.3	79
-	1987-05-15	33.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15	Missing Count
1	2017-05-15	135.2	0
2	1994-05-15	131.3	0
3	1996-05-15	131.2	5
4	1993-05-15	122.7	0
5	1956-05-15	122.6	0
6	2003-05-15	117.6	0
7	2011-05-15	117.3	1
8	1978-05-15	115.3	0
9	1970-05-15	114.0	0
10	2001-05-15	112.6	0
11	1971-05-15	108.6	0
12	1958-05-15	108.3	0
13	2005-05-15	106.5	0
14	2004-05-15	106.4	0
15	1972-05-15	106.2	0
16	2021-05-15	105.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15	Missing Count
1	1973-05-15	0.4	0
2	2020-05-15	0.5	0
3	1995-05-15	0.8	0
4	1950-05-15	1.6	0
5	2002-05-15	2.6	0
6	1998-05-15	3.0	0
7	1992-05-15	3.2	0
-	1951-05-15	3.2	0
8	1981-05-15	3.3	0
9	1947-05-15	4.2	7
10	2012-05-15	4.3	0
11	1957-05-15	4.6	0
12	1945-05-15	5.2	122
13	1999-05-15	5.7	0
-	1997-05-15	5.7	0
14	1949-05-15	6.2	0
15	2007-05-15	6.5	0
16	1975-05-15	7.1	0
17	2021-05-15	7.3	0

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We have to view the +AO configuration this winter in the broader context of what the other telconnections were doing. The strong +PNA  put the trough in the East. But the +AO prevented the upper lows from closing off until the surface lows got east of the benchmark. Last winter the upper lows were closing off early to our SW with the strong south based -AO. The surface lows all tucked in near SNJ. So Binghamton is currently in 2nd place for lowest seasonal snowfall through the 25th. While ACY is currently the 10th snowiest on record. The places were reversed last winter. BGM was 16th snowiest with  ACY the 17th least snowiest.

 

Time Series Summary for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15	Missing Count
1	2016-05-15	32.0	0
2	2022-05-15	43.0	79
3	2012-05-15	43.5	0
4	1989-05-15	47.8	0
5	1969-05-15	52.0	0
6	1995-05-15	52.8	0
7	1992-05-15	56.0	0
8	1980-05-15	56.8	0
9	1981-05-15	59.3	0
10	2002-05-15	61.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15	Missing Count
1	2010-05-15	58.1	0
2	1967-05-15	46.9	0
3	1996-05-15	46.4	0
4	2014-05-15	43.8	0
5	1979-05-15	43.1	0
6	2003-05-15	42.3	0
7	1964-05-15	38.1	0
8	2011-05-15	38.0	0
9	2018-05-15	34.1	0
10	2022-05-15	33.3	79
-	1987-05-15	33.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15	Missing Count
1	2017-05-15	135.2	0
2	1994-05-15	131.3	0
3	1996-05-15	131.2	5
4	1993-05-15	122.7	0
5	1956-05-15	122.6	0
6	2003-05-15	117.6	0
7	2011-05-15	117.3	1
8	1978-05-15	115.3	0
9	1970-05-15	114.0	0
10	2001-05-15	112.6	0
11	1971-05-15	108.6	0
12	1958-05-15	108.3	0
13	2005-05-15	106.5	0
14	2004-05-15	106.4	0
15	1972-05-15	106.2	0
16	2021-05-15	105.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15	Missing Count
1	1973-05-15	0.4	0
2	2020-05-15	0.5	0
3	1995-05-15	0.8	0
4	1950-05-15	1.6	0
5	2002-05-15	2.6	0
6	1998-05-15	3.0	0
7	1992-05-15	3.2	0
-	1951-05-15	3.2	0
8	1981-05-15	3.3	0
9	1947-05-15	4.2	7
10	2012-05-15	4.3	0
11	1957-05-15	4.6	0
12	1945-05-15	5.2	122
13	1999-05-15	5.7	0
-	1997-05-15	5.7	0
14	1949-05-15	6.2	0
15	2007-05-15	6.5	0
16	1975-05-15	7.1	0
17	2021-05-15	7.3	0

That's an excellent way of looking at it-- we need to view teleconnections together, not in isolation.  And we further have to subdivide them into north vs south and east vs west based.  But here's another thought.  Is the NYC area just in a bad area for storm tracks....we saw this in the 80s too- there are two predominant tracks for storms, one is south of the area and the other is north of the area.  We've seen this in a few other recent winters too, where places both south and north of us see less snow in individual storms than we do.  Maybe the NYC is just a bad area for snow unless everything lines up perfectly?

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and cold. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 36°

Newark: 37°

Philadelphia: 41°

Tomorrow will be fair and milder.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 44.6°; 15-Year: 44.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 45.6°; 15-Year: 45.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.0°; 15-Year: 46.9°

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It was only for the big events....for one thing there werent any extreme events between Feb 1983 and Mar 1993 and then it was sporadic (just Mar 1993 and Jan 1996) before the madness that began in the 2000s lol.

Mar 2001 would have sent this board over the edge

The problem is people are trying to make every moderate size event a once in a lifetime event.

If you saw 2015-2016 you likely won’t see that again.

That is the kind of storm you tell your grandkids about. I’ve heard stories about cars being buried in snow in NYC and didnt believe it until I saw it with my own eyes.

And yes the storms are getting bigger and more frequent, but the set of circumstances that allow a perfect storm like that are only going to occur once twice or three times in a human lifetime.

People don’t want to hear that, particularly in the sensationalist age, but it’s the truth

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The problem is people are trying to make every moderate size event a once in a lifetime event.

If you saw 2015, you likely won’t see that again.

That is the kind of storm you tell your grandkids about. I’ve heard stories about cars being buried in snow in NYC and didnt believe it until I saw it with my own eyes.

And yes the storms are getting bigger and more frequent, but the set of circumstances that allow a perfect storm like that are only going to occur once twice or three times in a human lifetime.

People don’t want to hear that, particularly in the sensationalist age, but it’s the truth

Thats right and actually for me, Jan 2016 is in its own category.  There's only a few that rank that high for me and it's Feb 1983, Jan 1996, Feb 2003 and Jan 2016....so basically once a decade.  That's my full list of 20"+ storms (my minimum for HECS) and one of them was a 30"+ storm (BECS in my classification system).

<1" coating

1-3" minor

4-6" moderate

6-10" significant

10-20" major

20"+ historic

30"+ biblical

 

[EastonSN+]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s tough to be sure. The wave lengths are shortening, so that adds complexity. I still suspect that we’ll see at least some accumulations of snow in March and that there might be a window of opportunity for at least a moderate snowfall.

Thanks Don, given the depicted look of the ensembles I would not be shocked, but surprised if at least parts of the forum do not see more snow. 

ORH wxman in the NE forum had a great write up on the upcoming pattern in the March thread quoted below....

"The PNA index just measures where the height anomalies are within the PNA domain loading pattern. So because we have higher heights out toward the Aleutians and lower heights over western Canada, it’s going to produce a -PNA (RNA) number. It doesn’t mean the PV has to get sucked down into Washington and Oregon like it did back in December during that obscene pattern. 
 

The PV being over Hudson Bay will help with overrunning threats that might otherwise be cutters. You can see though how the mean trough is further east by the end of EPS run though. It’s more sitting over the central US instead of further west so it would give us a better shot at a Miller B. "

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats right and actually for me, Jan 2016 is in its own category.  There's only a few that rank that high for me and it's Feb 1983, Jan 1996, Feb 2003 and Jan 2016....so basically once a decade.  That's my full list of 20"+ storms (my minimum for HECS) and one of them was a 30"+ storm (BECS in my classification system).

<1" coating

1-3" minor

4-6" moderate

6-10" significant

10-20" major

20"+ historic

30"+ biblical

 

You didn't get 20+ in February 2006?

Here in SW CT only experienced 3 20 plus.

27 in 1996.

20.5 in 2006.

22 in 2013.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

You didn't get 20+ in February 2006?

Here in SW CT only experienced 3 20 plus.

27 in 1996.

20.5 in 2006.

22 in 2013.

Feb 2006 was a measly 13" here LOL and 10" in Feb 2013

 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Feb 2006 was a measly 13" here LOL and 10" in Feb 2013

 

 

Yeah 1983 was 16 and 2016 was 11.5 here.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning gravity it brought to mind the saying “a little learning is a dangerous thing” from a 1709 Alexander Pope poem. The question remains, for some of us, ….. is more better? Stay well, as always …..

I think part of the problem is some people don't even learn a little bit. 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It was only for the big events....for one thing there weren't any extreme events between Feb 1983 and Mar 1993 and then it was sporadic (just Mar 1993 and Jan 1996) before the madness that began in the 2000s lol.

Mar 2001 would have sent this board over the edge

I mean extreme emotional responses to mundane events. "Waaaahhhh I'm not the one getting more than 4"..."

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's an excellent way of looking at it-- we need to view teleconnections together, not in isolation.  And we further have to subdivide them into north vs south and east vs west based.  But here's another thought.  Is the NYC area just in a bad area for storm tracks....we saw this in the 80s too- there are two predominant tracks for storms, one is south of the area and the other is north of the area.  We've seen this in a few other recent winters too, where places both south and north of us see less snow in individual storms than we do.  Maybe the NYC is just a bad area for snow unless everything lines up perfectly?

 

You're just realizing these two things now? 

[Volcanic Winter]

I don’t think historically the NYC area is a bad area for snow, it almost certainly isn’t as good now as it was for the majority of the last millennium as we are at a much higher baseline temperature. This should affect NYC more than Boston at this point, with more borderline rain events and more frequently falling on the wrong side of the temperature gradient. 
 

I can’t comment on how historical storm tracks might’ve looked, but I’d be willing to bet going back 4-500 years this area had way less rain events and more frequent snow events, in storms and systems that would likely produce rain here now. 
 

I’d be so curious about historical records from before the 1880s, but actual data is sparse. I’m wondering if it was colder and dryer or colder and snowier. 
 

Having better data from the time of the LIA would’ve been fascinating, as it had already ended according to most by the 1850’s / 1860’s. Totally different climatological situation of course. 
 

Edit: I’m not really talking about those massive historic 20” + events, as that could be tied to the warming SSTs, but just the frequency of average / moderate snowfall events. 

[gravitylover]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I don’t think historically the NYC area is a bad area for snow, it almost certainly isn’t as good now as it was for the majority of the last millennium as we are at a much higher baseline temperature. This should affect NYC more than Boston at this point, with more borderline rain events and more frequently falling on the wrong side of the temperature gradient. 
 

I can’t comment on how historical storm tracks might’ve looked, but I’d be willing to bet going back 4-500 years this area had way less rain events and more frequent snow events, in storms and systems that would likely produce rain here now. 
 

I’d be so curious about historical records from before the 1880s, but actual data is sparse. I’m wondering if it was colder and dryer or colder and snowier. 
 

Having better data from the time of the LIA would’ve been fascinating, as it had already ended according to most by the 1850’s / 1860’s. Totally different climatological situation of course. 

One thing that always stuck out to me when reading the early history of the area is the early Dutch settlers often mentioned snow on the ground, on Manhattan island, well into what we consider to be spring now. For the area to have a snowpack well into March was quite common and in many cases agricultural seasons were much shorter than they are now with cold and snow being a thing at both ends of the winter. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That's an excellent way of looking at it-- we need to view teleconnections together, not in isolation.  And we further have to subdivide them into north vs south and east vs west based.  But here's another thought.  Is the NYC area just in a bad area for storm tracks....we saw this in the 80s too- there are two predominant tracks for storms, one is south of the area and the other is north of the area.  We've seen this in a few other recent winters too, where places both south and north of us see less snow in individual storms than we do.  Maybe the NYC is just a bad area for snow unless everything lines up perfectly?

 

It’s been easier for ISP to get 12”+snowstorms than NYC since 2010.There have been 10 events at ISP and only 6 in NYC. Both stations require a strong +PNA. But the -AO is more important for NYC. It allows the upper low to close off further to the SW. While a -AO is still favored for ISP, they can still get 12”+ events with a +AO. Slower closing off storms with a +AO can give them 12”+ since they are located further east.

 

10 snowstorm 500 mb composite since 2010 for ISP

 

6 snowstorm 500 mb composite for NYC

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s been easier for ISP to get 12”+snowstorms than NYC since 2010.There have been 10 events at ISP and only 6 in NYC. Both stations require a strong +PNA. But the -AO is more important for NYC. It allows the upper low to close off further to the SW. While a -AO is still favored for ISP, they can still get 12”+ events with a +AO. Slower closing off storms with a +AO can give them 12”+ since they are located further east.

 

10 snowstorm 500 mb composite since 2010 for ISP

 

6 snowstorm 500 mb composite for NYC

 

 

 

Chris, if we further limit the set to include 20"+ snowstorms only and compare NYC, JFK and ISP, how do they compare?  Let's extend it to the last 30 year climate period (1991-2020).  It makes sense that ISP requires less than what NYC requires....but I find it interesting that ACY, which is south of us, also seems to be fine with a +AO.  Maybe ACY can be included in the set too, it's not like the January storm was an isolated event, it also happened in 1989.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I think part of the problem is some people don't even learn a little bit. 

I mean extreme emotional responses to mundane events. "Waaaahhhh I'm not the one getting more than 4"..."

You're just realizing these two things now? 

No I also thought about it back in the 1980s when all of this was happening, but because the 2000s and 2010s were so good for snow, I just put it in the back of my mind.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and milder. A rain or snow shower is possible as a reinforcing shot of cold air will move into the region.

Overall, the closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot. A system could bring some precipitation to the region late next week. A warming trend could develop afterward. The duration of this warming remains uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was +19.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.617.

On February 24 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.968 (RMM). The February 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.090 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.1° (1.2° above normal).