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January 28th/29th Event Obs - From KU to FU?


JTA66
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14 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

They clearly aren't putting any eggs in the NAM/Euro basket. I do agree that an advisory should definitely go out. Just to make people aware of the possibilities.

How often do you see Mt Holly issue blizzard warnings that fan out to storm Warnings with no advisories to the fringe side? It's odd.

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Ironic, they rely heavily on the Euro models in the discussion but fail to warn  almost a million people who live "on the fringe". The greater Lehigh Valley metro area has a larger population than most areas in the midwest.  Makes no sense. The Lehigh Valley has the most dangerously traveled  road in PA - I-78/RT 22/ RT 309 corridor. Its already snowing and Mt Holly should at least be precautionary and not reactionary as there are way too many residents/drivers who rely on an accurate warning system.  The Lehigh Valley metro is not hicksville rural areas anymore and they need to be more precautionary, thats all.  The "I told you so  syndrome" is about to come out of the closet again.  Sorry for my rant but 25+ years of seeing this same scenario unfolding  is frustrating. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All surfaces are white here in Ivyland. Nkce band over us setting up shop.

Both vehicles went in the shop this AM. Dead battery on one, deal oil pump on the other. Murphy's Law.

Sorry to hear ralph but now you have no reason to go anywhere anyway :)

No snow at PHL airport

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19 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

 

Toss that junk. Everything's dialed in on something big. This one's out to lunch 

I am just posting model images for the benefit of this subforum for people to look at since there are those who lurk here who are watching the play by plays and who have expressed a desire to "learn". I have given no weight or "analysis" of which one(s) I think is "correct".  They all constitute "data points", nothing more, nothing less.

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I am just posting model images for the benefit of this subforum for people to look at since there are those who lurk here who are watching the play by plays and who have expressed a desire to "learn". I have given no weight or "analysis" of which one(s) I think is "correct".  They all constitute "data points", nothing more, nothing less.

No no no I'm glad you post it I like to see it! 

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Could you imagine if the NAM is right ... 44.9" at Toms River :lmao: Whoever said Kuchera ratio is crap is likely right...still..

 

snku_acc.us_state_ne_s.png

 

My mt. holly forecast is 4-11", largest range I've seen but very understandable. Would be amazed though if we see a foot+ around 95. This just seems like one to sit back and watch unfold. None of the model's had this snow as robust as it looks this morning. Most didn't have precip beginning until this afternoon including the latest HRRR. Even though most people are aware of the storm, I don't think many were expecting it to begin so early, afternoon commute could be a nightmare...

 

Right now light snow is falling in Trenton.

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26 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Ironic, they rely heavily on the Euro models in the discussion but fail to warn  almost a million people who live "on the fringe". The greater Lehigh Valley metro area has a larger population than most areas in the midwest.  Makes no sense. The Lehigh Valley has the most dangerously traveled  road in PA - I-78/RT 22/ RT 309 corridor. Its already snowing and Mt Holly should at least be precautionary and not reactionary as there are way too many residents/drivers who rely on an accurate warning system.  The Lehigh Valley metro is not hicksville rural areas anymore and they need to be more precautionary, thats all.  The "I told you so  syndrome" is about to come out of the closet again.  Sorry for my rant but 25+ years of seeing this same scenario unfolding  is frustrating. 

 

So true that Rt 78 is always a mess in any weather, especially Lehigh-Berks portion. Per the latest AFD Mt. Holly seems to be aware of the potential for some increased snow totals in the NW 1/3 of the forecast area:  “…My current feeling is that totals on the coast may be a little on the high side given a potential positive snow-ratio forecast bias, but may be a little on the low side in the northwest CWA (where snow ratios may be higher, and where forecasts have trended west with QPF in recent model suites).…”. Today’s snow has been in the forecast for many forecast cycles, but it’s far too little to warrant an advisory, and also may be too far removed from the potential additional snowfall tomorrow to even get the area to advisory level snows (the NWS criteria is 3” in 12 hours).    I am more frustrated seeing the potential big snows to the east than by anything else, but hopefully some of the modeled snow trends continue and we get to join the party. 

82E81DB6-AB33-49F6-8C31-8D842267A8A7.jpeg

CCE6383A-7634-4525-BF50-0E2BD62D459F.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I thought I read in the MA forum that when a double low apears on the GFS the west low takes over.

Whatever that is, it has been causing the continual "west - east - west" model dance, depending on how much "weight" they put on that. The GFS seemed to have ignored it early on but has drunk the koolaid  and is now having to deal with it, whereas the NAM and Euro completely embraced the chaos early on.  This also impacts whether you end up with a SECS whiff or a HECS.

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17 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I am just posting model images for the benefit of this subforum for people to look at since there are those who lurk here who are watching the play by plays and who have expressed a desire to "learn". I have given no weight or "analysis" of which one(s) I think is "correct".  They all constitute "data points", nothing more, nothing less.

Keep it up. Much appreciated. 

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Could you imagine if the NAM is right ... 44.9" at Toms River :lmao: Whoever said Kuchera ratio is crap is likely right...still..

 

snku_acc.us_state_ne_s.png

 

My mt. holly forecast is 4-11", largest range I've seen but very understandable. Would be amazed though if we see a foot+ around 95. This just seems like one to sit back and watch unfold. None of the model's had this snow as robust as it looks this morning. Most didn't have precip beginning until this afternoon including the latest HRRR. Even though most people are aware of the storm, I don't think many were expecting it to begin so early, afternoon commute could be a nightmare...

 

Right now light snow is falling in Trenton.

Please stop with the Kuchera

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