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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


StormchaserChuck!
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The GFS has had this for something like 15 runs in a row while none of the other models have anything like this. Either:

 

The GFS is on to a 2012 Sandy like coup that  gave the Euro the reputation that it had OR

 

It is on to a 2015 Mid Atlantic Blizzard forecast  that the Euro was alone on that never materialized and started the Euro's downward trend.

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1 minute ago, Prospero said:

I see a couple other models are now starting to pick up a hint of a low forming around the Yucatan.

It's good to finally have something worth posting about :) 

I just went through the GEFS and EPS, it looks like one of the main differences is where the energy coalesces. On the GEFS, the signal is for more eastern development in the western Caribbean, which the EPS mostly keeps things suppressed and develops more in the EPAC. Climo kinda favors EPAC right now, but if we can get moisture to stream more north toward the Yucatan, that increases odds of something forming on our side of tracks. 

Still not quite ready for primetime yet with any higher end tropical development absent excellent upper level conditions, IMO. 

cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

 

IyNMYxL.jpg

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3 hours ago, Prospero said:

GFS still spinning a storm in the Gulf. Granted, it has been all over the place, but hanging on.

It is approaching late May, we do get storms this early.

I'm not worried about a Laura, Michael, etc. But a TS would be nice. ;)

 

A gradually intensifying TS that brings a good rain would be a nice appetizer. 

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The GFS has been like a dog that will not just let go of his grip.  Jeez, run after run for day after day the GFS has been insistent that something is going to get going in the NW Caribbean or Gulf.  If this would ever come to fruition the GFS will have scored a total respect from me.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

The GFS has been like a dog that will not just let go of his grip.  Jeez, run after run for day after day the GFS has been insistent that something is going to get going in the NW Caribbean or Gulf.  If this would ever come to fruition the GFS will have scored a total respect from me.  

 

 

Even if totally wrong, I'm a fan as having something to see a couple or so times a day for a couple weeks. My first 2022 season excitement! I am voting for GFS, but not betting money on it. Still worth coming to see every day what it's model predicts. :)

Later on may judge by what happens now, but for today, I love the Spring energy!

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1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

I have no idea if this is significant but that's an impressive looking area of convection over the southern Caribbean...

Untitled.jpg

Issue is that it’ll likely be suppressed further south, significantly limiting any chance of development.

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On 5/17/2022 at 8:11 AM, olafminesaw said:

Although I know the GFS is smoking something...Definitely potential there if something does spin up. Of course with more troughs moving into the gulf this time of year, potential Is more limited, but I could definitely see a strong hybrid type system somewhere. 

atlpot.jpeg

Not sure if there has been a study to combine cyclone speed with subsea topography and OHC to develop a better predictor for max cyclone intensity.  A faster cyclone, even if strong, would seem to have less time to upwell cooler water before the center passes.  I know 1938 was probably baroclinically enhanced, it had very little time over colder water to weaken, however because of its speed.

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Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Not sure if there has been a study to combine cyclone speed with subsea topography and OHC to develop a better predictor for max cyclone intensity.  A faster cyclone, even if strong, would seem to have less time to upwell cooler water before the center passes.  I know 1938 was probably baroclinically enhanced, it had very little time over colder water to weaken, however because of its speed.

I suspect the reason Texas has never had a Cat 5 is not a shallow subsurface meaning very low OHC, I think it is strong storms would start entraining downsloping air off the Chihuahuan desert highlands.  If not for that, SSTs would support more than Cat 4.  (Now, if things like the Gulf's average SST's do rise w/ climate change, maybe not even dry air could stop a smaller storm, but I wonder if warmer SSTs would cause warmer upper level temps with time, keeping instability from rising as quickly)

Gulfminmax.jpg

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It appears that the ECMWF keeps a would-be Agatha as a closed low as it crosses from the Pacific into the Atlantic basin. When was the last time we had a named storm (TS or higher) cross basins in this manner?

I know TD-11 crossed over and developed into a TS in 2010, but it only got named Hermine after it crossed.

Note that I do see several Atlantic-to-Pacific crossovers, but few Pacific-to-Atlantic crossovers. 

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6 hours ago, cptcatz said:

The big three are all in agreement of a sub-1000 storm passing near/over the Florida peninsula.  Probably looking like something like Eta's impacts for us here.

ec-fast_ow850_watl_fh240-240.gif

gfs_ow850_watl_fh180-180.gif

gem_ow850_watl_fh228-228.gif

Ensemble signal on the EPS/GEFS looks solid as well for this range. Need a little more time to figure what the seed for development looks like, whether it’s the actual EPAC system per the Euro or some other area of vorticity a la GFS.

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