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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

I feel if you're west of a line from say Richmond to Raleigh, we're pretty much done unless we get some big trends the next 48 hours. This thing is looking flat and weak until it's off the coast. Lots of energy being left behind.

Good lord.. we are still just a bit less then 100hrs from onset! Hello?? Have you forgot last week's insane back and forth the models were doing regarding Friday's event?  Hell, the Mets in Charlotte didn't get the forecast right until halfway through the storm.. lol.. 

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Euro was further west and quicker with the phase. Verbatim was a 1-3” snowstorm for much of NC with much more in NE NC. Euro actually takes the low inside the benchmark further north and over eastern MA. I’m sure it got some of those folks around Boston a tad bit concerned about mixing

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This is thread the needle situation so let the teeth gnashing commence. Problem with relying on super phases is that they almost never pan out. Euro may be on to something but GFS seems like a more likely outcome. Of course I've been wrong 1000x so take what I say with a grain of salt haha. 

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Things working in SE favor with this storm:

  • Favorable pattern. Storms tend to repeat when you have a good pattern
  • Pattern seems to be dissolving soon and good storms can often come at the end and start of the pattern
  • Euro seems to be holding serve with the big dog solution

Things not working in the SE favor with this storm:

  • Reliance on a big phased solution (see image below)
  • Cold 850's but SFC temps need perfect timing WITH a big phase
  • It's the southeast

6z_Euro_EPS_Energy.png.6e43f476359c8a6ad3529b150056cd4c.png

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Things working in SE favor with this storm:
  • Favorable pattern. Storms tend to repeat when you have a good pattern
  • Pattern seems to be dissolving soon and good storms can often come at then end and start of the pattern
  • Euro seems to be holding serve with the big dog solution
Things not working in the SE favor with this storm:
  • Reliance on a big phased solution (see image below)
  • Cold 850's but SFC temps need perfect timing WITH a big phase
  • It's the southeast
6z_Euro_EPS_Energy.png.6e43f476359c8a6ad3529b150056cd4c.png
So the rare triple phase of 93?

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35 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

So the rare triple phase of 93?

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

That's why we always have to bring up 93, 96 or another rare storm cause it almost never happens. Like @Bevo and others have said these almost always end up working out for the NE and rarely workout for the SE. 

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4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

As a general rule growing up in ENC, we rarely saw DC, NYC, BOS also do well when we did. Snow in NC, particularly in this part, is an exclusive business.

 

Yep. It's easy to forget how far East of us New England is. Boston is about the same distance East of Greensboro as it is North. (400+ miles)

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1 hour ago, Beach Snow said:

Control run

1B5ED600-59F1-4407-A856-F1F87F6E2594.png

Can we talk about easy it must be to be a meteorologist in New England? Like close your eyes and Sleep during you shift easy…. They have nothing to look at except track…. They always have Cold Air, They never have Mixing issues or CAD (lol)…. It literally must be as simple as “ohh hey it’s Cold out, here comes liquid yep big storm 16-24” maybe more that’s the only reason I’m watching the track back to you Bob for sports” no this post isn’t me whining it’s making fun of them 

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