Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[PhineasC]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you realize all it has to do is tic west to look like them?

Its hardly east of them at all now...

Yeah, they moved to the Euro. Euro was already there waiting. It can just wobble and have the same look.

[Ginx snewx]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RI used up 50 years of jackpot karma in the ‘78 storm…gotta wait until 2028 for them. 

12 21 09

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I don’t think many quite grasped how far west the 18z euro actually was. It really doesn’t need much of a move to just look like the Ukie/GGEM. 
 

 

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, radarman said:

 

I think Newport jackpotted 12/7/81.  Push it back to 2031.

12 21 09

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I don’t think many quite grasped how far west the 18z euro actually was. It really doesn’t need much of a move to just look like the Ukie/GGEM. 
 

 

why are the weather models so bad

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, PhineasC said:

why are the weather models so bad

Not sure why they are struggling so bad with this system. The longwave trough really looks pretty similar on all guidance and even the handling of the shortwaves isn’t far off now. 
 

This has definitely been a pretty schizophrenic 24 hours…esp considering yesterday it really seemed like we were honing in on a solution. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Can you post the wider NARCAN maps for the GGEM, UKMET, and Euro? Those maps are great.

 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure why they are struggling so bad with this system. The longwave trough really looks pretty similar on all guidance and even the handling of the shortwaves isn’t far off now. 
 

This has definitely been a pretty schizophrenic 24 hours…esp considering yesterday it really seemed like we were honing in on a solution. 

We may be getting there now.

[PhineasC]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Thanks. What a crazy turnaround here from 12z/18z. Euro has been the best by far.

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you realize all it has to do is tic west to look like them?

Its hardly east of them at all now...

I do realize that. I still think the heavier omega will be east and the orientation will be only a little different than what you have there in your forecast map. However, I don't think this Feb 13 or Jan 15 all over again exactly. I will admit where you have that band is somewhat aggressive. Everything would need to come together just right for it to pan out like that, but we'll see.

[ice1972]

JMA totally had it…..it usually gets the biggies…..40 burger west Hartford 1st call…..

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

I do realize that. I still think the heavier omega will be east and the orientation will be only a little different than what you have there in your forecast map. However, I don't think this Feb 13 or Jan 15 all over again exactly. I will admit where you have that band is somewhat aggressive. Everything would need to come together just right for it to pan out like that, but we'll see.

It was aggressive at the time, this afternoon, but its seems like many OCMs are going to need to play catchup because that is where this is headed back to.

[ORH_wxman]

Already a good start on the euro through 30 hours. The TPV lifting out quicker than 18z and both northern and southern stream out west look better. I assume that trifecta should lead this to come west at least a little. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Already a good start on the euro through 30 hours. The TPV lifting out quicker than 18z and both northern and southern stream out west look better. I assume that trifecta should lead this to come west at least a little. 

No surprise...will look like UK IMO

[ineedsnow]

wish we could get this to go over the Cape... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Somebody cut Luke down from the noose and give him CPR, he's getting over a foot

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I do...we'll see...

If it does then we’re back in business out here with potentially tickling the pivot point. Sometimes…you just have to let the frustrations propagate down to the finger tips, then step away for a bit. Come back recharged with a clear head.

[wxsniss]

Yeah this should come west

And agree, 18z Euro was already pretty west

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Already a good start on the euro through 30 hours. The TPV lifting out quicker than 18z and both northern and southern stream out west look better. I assume that trifecta should lead this to come west at least a little. 

Maybe a tic or so but at least hold serve.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If it does then we’re back in business out here with potentially tickling the pivot point. Sometimes…you just have to let the frustrations propagate down to the finger tips, then step away for a bit. Come back recharged with a clear head.

Been there a million times, just bustn'. I melt with the best of them.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

wish we could get this to go over the Cape... 

Yes, or over Taunton. LOL

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Yes, or over Taunton. LOL

I think outer cape

[brooklynwx99]

everything on the ECMWF is improved

[ORH_wxman]

PV decided to stop lifting out fast by 42 so we’re behind on the heights up in Quebec by that point. But the two shortwaves still look great. 

[wxsniss]

thru 36h, perhaps the biggest improvement is in the TPV more restrained

glad to see that, that was a more recent fly in the ointment

[ineedsnow]

this run wont look anything like the GFS thats for sure

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

everything on the ECMWF is improved

Is everything awesome?

[ineedsnow]

I think this run is going to crush

[WeatherWilly]

I don't think the Euro is going to blow it like the Bruins

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Starting to climb the ladder…