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Winter Storm Izzy Obs Thread


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mcd0072.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0072
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

   Areas affected...Southern Appalachians...North Carolina and Virginia
   Piedmont

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 160902Z - 161500Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates exceeding one inch per hour will be
   possible across parts of the southern Appalachian Mountains this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor-imagery shows an upper-level low
   moving eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the
   low, mid-level moisture is streaming northeastward across Tennessee,
   Georgia and the Carolinas, where widespread precipitation is
   ongoing. Surface temperatures within the area of precipitation are
   mostly above freezing. The exception is along the northern edge of
   the precipitation from northern South Carolina into western North
   Carolina where surface temperatures have dropped to near or just
   below freezing. In response, precipitation has changed over to snow
   across much of the southern Appalachians, especially from the
   Appalachian crest eastward. As the upper-level low moves eastward
   across the central Gulf Coast states, large-scale ascent will
   increase across the southern Appalachians. In response, bands of
   heavy snowfall will likely develop. Snowfall rates could exceed one
   inch per hour from far northeast Georgia into the western Carolinas
   and far eastern Tennessee. Later this morning, heavy snow will also
   be possible in western Virginia.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 01/16/2022

 

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2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

mcd0072.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0072
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 AM CST Sun Jan 16 2022

   Areas affected...Southern Appalachians...North Carolina and Virginia
   Piedmont

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 160902Z - 161500Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates exceeding one inch per hour will be
   possible across parts of the southern Appalachian Mountains this
   morning.

   DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor-imagery shows an upper-level low
   moving eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the
   low, mid-level moisture is streaming northeastward across Tennessee,
   Georgia and the Carolinas, where widespread precipitation is
   ongoing. Surface temperatures within the area of precipitation are
   mostly above freezing. The exception is along the northern edge of
   the precipitation from northern South Carolina into western North
   Carolina where surface temperatures have dropped to near or just
   below freezing. In response, precipitation has changed over to snow
   across much of the southern Appalachians, especially from the
   Appalachian crest eastward. As the upper-level low moves eastward
   across the central Gulf Coast states, large-scale ascent will
   increase across the southern Appalachians. In response, bands of
   heavy snowfall will likely develop. Snowfall rates could exceed one
   inch per hour from far northeast Georgia into the western Carolinas
   and far eastern Tennessee. Later this morning, heavy snow will also
   be possible in western Virginia.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 01/16/2022

 

I-85 …. Climo wins very nice!

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From GSP discussion at 2:45a

Quote
Continued snowfall is expected across the Upstate and Piedmont
through the next several hours, gradually changing over to sleet
and freezing rain as WAA atop the cold wedge dynamically produces a
warm nose in profiles.  This warm nose is expected to push in from
the southeast and make its way to perhaps the I-85 corridor.  Thus,
the current thinking is that by dawn, most sites south of I-85 will
primarily be seeing ice, while points farther north will likely see
more of a mix.

 

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2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

The heavy snow discussion came out 15 minutes after GSP update

I think they wrote that near term part at 2:45, the discussion came out at 3:37a. Sleep deprived I didn't pay attention to it lol.

Quote
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EST Sunday: At the time of this writing

 

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The mix line on CC looks like it settled south when rates/cooling took over but may be working back north and west now. Definitely going to walk the line for the 85 folks in the upstate next few hours but if you can keep snow it will certainly pile up fast with those rates and returns incoming. That’s a juiced system 

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