Itstrainingtime Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 57 here. Plenty of 60's on the wundermap. 49 and partly sunny here. Today's high was 52. Felt amazing in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 49 and partly sunny here. Today's high was 52. Felt amazing in the sun. Yea, no wind meant the winter Version of a Chamber of Commerce day. MDT got to 54 or 55. The zone forecasts were well under done but I figured that was coming when I looked last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Ugh cloudy and 42-44 here all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 Topped out at 58 here. Today may be the warmest day in a while. Maybe Sunday....Sat not looking so warm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Topped out at 58 here. Today may be the warmest day in a while. Maybe Sunday....Sat not looking so warm at this point. 53 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 53 for me. What did your zone say? I think my said 47-49ish. I know MDT said 46-47. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 Large changes by the 18Z Icon. A just miss (LSV) with a low forming Sunday night. With the GFS also being close, Jan 3rd is still not closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Gulf of Alaska Tropics > Susquehanna Valley Tropics Bubbler definitely would’ve been running the AC in Kodiak, AK yesterday lol. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/baked-alaska-record-december-warmth-winter-rains-2021-12-29/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 32 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 53 for me. Forgot what it was but the 2p discussion was on it. Maybe too late to adjust by then. With sunshine expected to hang tough for at least the next few hours, high temperatures will overperform in the south central mountains and lower Susquehanna Valley. High temperatures should range from the upper 30s to near 40 north to the mid 50s in southern PA. These temperatures are +10 to +15 compared to normal, and the mild weather will stick around through Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: Gulf of Alaska Tropics > Susquehanna Valley Tropics https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/baked-alaska-record-december-warmth-winter-rains-2021-12-29/ I still contend we have not been all that warm. It may go down as one of the top 5 warmest but it sort of nickeled and dimed its way there. Plenty of very cold nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, no wind meant the winter Version of a Chamber of Commerce day. MDT got to 54 or 55. The zone forecasts were well under done but I figured that was coming when I looked last night. Took some of my family to the Strasburg Railroad (I go A LOT) and we had to open the windows in our car...they must have had the heat on because it was way hotter than this guy can handle. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Gulf of Alaska Tropics > Susquehanna Valley Tropics Bubbler definitely would’ve been running the AC in Kodiak, AK yesterday lol. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/baked-alaska-record-december-warmth-winter-rains-2021-12-29/ My AC hasn't stopped running. It was on a few times during the snow Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Took some of my family to the Strasburg Railroad (I go A LOT) and we had to open the windows in our car...they must have had the heat on because it was way hotter than this guy can handle. LOL The "winter memories" are taking a hit over here as well. We have windows and doors open right now...to avoid having to put the A/C on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I still contend we have not been all that warm. It may go down as one of the top 5 warmest but it sort of nickeled and dimed its way there. Plenty of very cold nights. Yea I agree with you. We started the month out pretty chilly and weren’t super warm but somewhat above average highs for most of it, with those dry chilly nights kind of counter balancing some. Up until this week we have been in a really dry pattern since November. Big thing is we have had zero legitimate winter cold shots (even something more mundane like 20s for highs) and that’s really weighing into that temperature average. That and of course the last few days to close out the year are definitely going to be significantly above average day and night. Take Dec 98 for example, that year got to #2 way differently with the front half of that month way above average and most of the first week of the month in the mid 70s+ for highs (one day cracked 80) at MDT. I remember it well.. I was 12 and it was my first deer season hunting. I’ve had some warm hunts in recent years but there still isn’t anything that compared to the opening day of rifle season that year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea I agree with you. We started the month out pretty chilly and weren’t super warm but somewhat above average highs for most of it, with those dry chilly nights kind of counter balancing some. Up until this week we have been in a really dry pattern since November. Big thing is we have had zero legitimate winter cold shots (even something more mundane like 20s for highs) and that’s really weighing into that temperature average. That and of course the last few days to close out the year are definitely going to be significantly above average day and night. Take Dec 98 for example, that year got to #2 way differently with the front half of that month way above average and most of the first week of the month in the mid 70s+ for highs (one day cracked 80) at MDT. I remember it well.. I was 12 and it was my first deer season hunting. I’ve had some warm hunts in recent years but there still isn’t anything that compared to the opening day of rifle season that year. Yea, definitely a soft top 5 hot month. 5 days in the 60's so far....none in the 70's. Just no artic intrusions as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 There is our Jan 3rd precious again...starting off warm though its definitely going to snow over some of the LSV on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There is our Jan 3rd precious again...starting off warm though its definitely going to snow over some of the LSV on this run. Importantly, that low pressure has been getting modeled deeper (slightly) each passing day it seems. I would think that deeper low = chances of it being farther north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 29, 2021 Author Share Posted December 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Importantly, that low pressure has been getting modeled deeper (slightly) each passing day it seems. I would think that deeper low = chances of it being farther north? Just model discussion, not a forecast....I think it's tricky with the slightly delayed frontal passage. Farther north is ok as long as it is a bit farther east. But as modeled there is a chance of some decent snow maxes in the transition zone. With the cmc not even acknowledging a formation at that time, it's still suspect though the icon defintely tipped its hat to the gfs at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There is our Jan 3rd precious again...starting off warm though its definitely going to snow over some of the LSV on this run. Thanks still have a shot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 29, 2021 Share Posted December 29, 2021 Left cabin at noon today. 3" on top of the 1" we had otg. Really pretty last evening. This morning was pixie dust powder bomb....whatever you want to call it. Crazy beautiful till it started to melt a bit, and fog rolled in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Quote Thursday A chance of showers. Patchy fog between 1pm and 2pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 45. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Where? Deep Creek?... N.Pa ? Gaines, Tioga county Pa. Cabin sits on top of mountain at 2275'. Its another world up there. By time we got to bottom of mountain, barely 1'' left on the ground, and once to Wellsboro barely a trace. I bought there for location and upslope for LES/snowmobiling/hunting/general outdoors, but big draw was it is often white when much of state is brown. Like you, I cherish my 4 months of snow chasing, and all the warm chatter just bums me out (thats not a complaint, but a fact), so I just sneak away when i know I have snow to look at. Last night looked good for a few days, so off we went. Entire event was snow last night. Drizzle n snizzle this am for a bit, but sure was enjoyable. When we left cabin at 12:20, it was still 32-33 on top. 35 down bottom and into Wellsboro. By the time we got to Wspt, it was 45. Back home now and waiting for the next chance to head up. Plenty of places to stay if you are ever interested, let me know. I can help w/ that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Importantly, that low pressure has been getting modeled deeper (slightly) each passing day it seems. I would think that deeper low = chances of it being farther north? Perhaps the ridge to the south & east will put up just enough resistance in order for the follow up wave to ride the boundary in a spot that works for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 45 minutes ago, Voyager said: That is really specific! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Here is another look at the 18z Euro at the end of its run. Hopefully 0z runs keep moving in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: That is really specific! I know, right? Is it considered a bust if the fog forms five minutes earlier or later than the specified time??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It be nice for @showmethesnowto stop in . Hopefully he'll swing in when a legit solid hit is on the horizon Yes, he is a great poster! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: Gaines, Tioga county Pa. Cabin sits on top of mountain at 2275'. Its another world up there. By time we got to bottom of mountain, barely 1'' left on the ground, and once to Wellsboro barely a trace. I bought there for location and upslope for LES/snowmobiling/hunting/general outdoors, but big draw was it is often white when much of state is brown. Like you, I cherish my 4 months of snow chasing, and all the warm chatter just bums me out (thats not a complaint, but a fact), so I just sneak away when i know I have snow to look at. Last night looked good for a few days, so off we went. Entire event was snow last night. Drizzle n snizzle this am for a bit, but sure was enjoyable. When we left cabin at 12:20, it was still 32-33 on top. 35 down bottom and into Wellsboro. By the time we got to Wspt, it was 45. Back home now and waiting for the next chance to head up. Plenty of places to stay if you are ever interested, let me know. I can help w/ that. I'm curious to know what that microclimate averages in snowfall. When I lived in the Dubois area, considerably farther south...driving up Clearfield mountain on Interstate 80 was always like going into the twilight zone. It's about the same elevation as your cabin and the weather and snow were always more extreme up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The end of the 0z NAM run looks to be holding back some energy for the trailing wave potential on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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