paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 End of the run is a monster low off the coast LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I'll take this map for 500 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, paweather said: I'll take this map for 500 Even if taboo... if one uses this for what its worth, it shows that opportunities for white gold may be getting closer to our backyards. Mind you....if one looks at the 192 GooFuS Op, it went from no storm at 6z to this at 12z. Just an example of why even in medium range its only a tool....and shouldnt be worth chewin one fingernail over.....Beyond 3 days, search for trends...good or bad. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 FWIW, Ens guidance is notably flatter for timestamp above, so glue your fingernail back on.....it wasnt worth the chew, and extrapolated, shouldn't cut, and would likely be something for all as it fits the NAO/AO at same timestamp. Looks to be best window we've had (on the maps and charts anyways). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 EC not really much of anything through 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Another cutter at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 EC = Boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: EC = Boring No it’s not, it’s impressive how quick those 500 height anomalies spring back to deep red next weekend behind the departing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: No it’s not, it’s impressive how quick those 500 height anomalies spring back to deep red next weekend behind the departing system. It is boring to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, paweather said: EC = Boring EC = close to something really good later next week. There is some ridging out west and there is plenty of cold High pressure to our north & northwest. As it is, the storm transfers from western PA to just north of NYC. It would not take much to have a little more flat solution or a slightly earlier transfer to bring us the snow goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 You all are really having fun today. In Etters right now and it's 53 degrees. Another over achiever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You all are really having fun today. In Etters right now and it's 53 degrees. Another over achiever. Yes we are! There is no better place for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Yea that 12z Euro threw down a 12”+ swath (1-2 feet factoring Kuchera) on a rapidly developing wave running an arctic boundary from the Lower Lakes through upstate NY/interior Northeast. *Yawn* That swath was right through PA just on the 0z run, and this particular wave is on all the models today. Not super far out in range so the strong storm signal amongst models is noteworthy, but definitely too far out to make any assumptions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea that 12z Euro threw down a 12”+ swath (1-2 feet factoring Kuchera) on a rapidly developing wave running an arctic boundary from the Lower Lakes through upstate NY/interior Northeast. *Yawn* That swath was right through PA just on the 0z run, and this particular wave is on all the models today. Not super far out in range so the strong storm signal amongst models is noteworthy, but definitely too far out to make any assumptions. Just saw the low track. Rather unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Just saw the low track. Rather unusual. Yea it looks to be modeled as a very robust shortwave that’s pulling an arctic front. We can debate how long the significant cold shot behind it lasts but it looks like a pretty significant blast with -15 to -20ºC 850 air briefly overspreading the commonwealth If we had a big time ridge established out west for this we might have been making comparisons to some other arctic wave that happened on 1/6-7 a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 25 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea it looks to be modeled as a very robust shortwave that’s pulling an arctic front. We can debate how long the significant cold shot behind it lasts but it looks like a pretty significant blast with -15 to -20ºC 850 air briefly overspreading the commonwealth If we had a big time ridge established out west for this we might have been making comparisons to some other arctic wave that happened on 1/6-7 a few years back. I'd settle for the flatish look we've had, and just being on the colder side of the boundary, as we've been hoping for. With all of the vorts we've been seeing, that'd set up a nice conveyor belt of snowballs from the midwest. This looks to be progressing twds the promise land. Just gotta hope NAO/AO dont mute the signal, cause we all know how easy it is to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Nice sharp shortwave on our beloved Nam Yes, indeed…very interesting… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Surface Ninjd December 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Surface Ninjd Let’s hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Let’s get this north train rolling! I want something to track even if it’s for Harrisburg lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: I'd settle for the flatish look we've had, and just being on the colder side of the boundary, as we've been hoping for. With all of the vorts we've been seeing, that'd set up a nice conveyor belt of snowballs from the midwest. This looks to be progressing twds the promise land. Just gotta hope NAO/AO dont mute the signal, cause we all know how easy it is to fail. Yea trends on the models have been consistently showing a transition to a +NAO/AO going forward. For us to have a longer lasting period of cold/snow opportunities later in January, this is where we need some ridging out west to build in the PNA realm to go with the persistent Pac ridging (-WPO). Looking at today’s ensembles, Euro EPS and GEFS both transition towards a western ridge look but differ a good bit in alignment. GEFS vs Euro EPS 500mb anomaly (Day 10-15 average) The GEFS has a really good look, with the ridge bridging over to Siberia. This alignment would suggest a more direct cold air source, even with the +AO look. Basically pretty chilly but not overwhelming. The Euro has troughing in AK.. cutting off that Siberian source and flattening/broadening the western ridge, and generally making for a warmer look in the east. Here’s the comparison with the 5 day average 850 temp anomalies (D10-15 average) The Euro still isn’t super torchy in our region, but you can see how much more favorable the GEFS would be when considering storm track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: There's definitely a limit to how far north this system can come . I just hope its 75- 100 miles further then this run What is causing it not to come North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 There are some 12"+ totals on the 18Z GFS for the Chessie area. That is not too common to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Salisbury jackpot lol. Chase? Getting stuck in Salisbury? Eh...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: There are some 12"+ totals on the 18Z GFS for the Chessie area. That is not too common to see. 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Salisbury jackpot lol. Chase? I said a few days ago this had a Tangier Island special written all over it. Wouldn't that be something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Getting stuck in Salisbury? Eh...LOL. Not a fan of the Shore Birds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Not a fan of the Shore Birds? It's been a long time since I have been in Salisbury but it seemed to be a bit "behind the times" last time I was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Salisbury use to be hoppin before the Salisbury bypass got built for OC traffic ... back in the day I would prefer to have it a bit farther south and ride the Griffon at Busch Gardens during a snow storm :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Do they still have the Loch Ness monster coaster? ....then I'm in Oh yes. And it opens early (in the summer of course) so you can ride it before the rest of the park opens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Do they still have the Loch Ness monster coaster? ....then I'm in 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Oh yes. And it opens early (in the summer of course) so you can ride it before the rest of the park opens. Rode the Loch Ness Monster in 1981 and again again in 2019. Amazing how perception changes from a 16 year old to when you're 54. Equally amazing how far coasters have come - I drove to BGW JUST to ride that shortly after I got my license. It was a "must do" back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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