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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

Bubbler86

By Bubbler86,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035
MAG5035

We can debate how far into PA the warm air aloft punches but I simply do not buy the NAM’s expansive freezing rain.    This isn’t really a setup for a deep swath of ice IMO, the high moves east as thi

MAG5035
MAG5035

Some updated thoughts on the pattern. The quoted above was the large post I made back on Jan 28th for reference and review. First off that was at the time, in the 5-7 day range of what was for most in

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seems as tho the thread was accidentally deleted by the author...ahem @Bubbler86    Anyway, I restored it and merged

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

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2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The look at 240 is more like what the EPS is depicting which isn’t a terrible look.


 

Not at all.  I am just a bit downtrodden by what appears to be the end of the Jan 3rd threat.   I thought it really had legs.  If we start getting into Mid January still chasing 100+ hour threats, I am going to get sullen.  LOL. 

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TimB

TimB

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not at all.  I am just a bit downtrodden by what appears to be the end of the Jan 3rd threat.   I thought it really had legs.  If we start getting into Mid January still chasing 100+ hour threats, I am going to get sullen.  LOL. 

I’m downtrodden by all of it. Going into Blizz mode and looking for sources of (possibly false) hope.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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19 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

@Cashtown_Coop, or @MAG5035, or to anyone else who melts down their snowfall to obtain a liquid equivalent:  I just went outside and brought in my clear-vue gauge to melt down today's 1.9" of snowfall.  I was pretty surprised at what I saw.  I received 0.40" of liquid from 1.9" of snow which equates to a ratio of just 4.75 : 1 !!  Typically you only see these low ratios with a lot of sleet.  I know my snow this morning was wet but I didn't think it was THAT wet.  I am very anxious to see what others near my area got for their liquid equivalent and ratio.  Thanks in advance.  

PS>>>My temp is now down to 32.2 degrees.  Oh so tantalizingly close for a bit of freezing rain.

Did it rain or sleet at all before you were able to bring the snow sample in yesterday? That might’ve lowered the SLR some. Either way it may have been a low ratio event. I didn’t melt mine down but it seemed pretty moisture laden and the majority of the 2-3” around here fell in about 2 hours or so in one intense period of precip.

One thing I noticed the night before when I was looking at the guidance to gauge the likelihood of this snow burst was the column of course was marginal.. but even at 700mb it was only a couple degrees below zero which is roasting at that particular level.  That’s getting into the typical region of snow growth and only -1 to -2ºC would yield poor snow growth and likely a high moisture content. So ratios were probably pretty lousy, I dunno about 5:1 ish lousy but it’s possible. 

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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JB finally acknowledging this a bit more in a post today. 

Quote

 

The MJO has NOT been in a phase favorable for warmth in December. It is solidly in 7, by correlation means there are samples when its not cold. Unfortunately for me and my December forecast, this is one of them.

Note this statement from the NOAA MJO discussion:

“While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended-range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America.”

The strongly negative PNA has been fighting the cold over the past couple of weeks. My mistake was in believing other factors would overwhelm it and they plainly have not. However, the intensity of the negative PNA will back off dramatically over the next 15 days

 

Regarding the MJO I’ve brought this correlation thing up like twice in posts the last few weeks, which is why I continue to think we need to get it to 8 and 1, and there are signs of that maybe finally occurring. Interesting tidbit with the NOAA quote, something I’ve admittedly not really thought about but it’s interesting to consider… the La Niña enhancing the Phase 7 pattern. Look at what’s happened in the west (esp the Sierra Nevada of California). The big concern there leading into winter with the ENSO being a Nina was continued drought conditions especially in that part of the west and about the most opposite thing that could probably occur has happened.

But yea models have been all over this super -PNA all month, I mentioned previously that getting into the territory it has gotten into was probably going to be a primary driver over the -NAO/AO and it was going to have to neutralize at least some. It shouldn’t be a surprise that we ended up where we are currently at going through this month on this side of the country. 

 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

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24 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

JB finally acknowledging this a bit more in a post today. 

Regarding the MJO I’ve brought this correlation thing up like twice in posts the last few weeks, which is why I continue to think we need to get it to 8 and 1, and there are signs of that maybe finally occurring. Interesting tidbit with the NOAA quote, something I’ve admittedly not really thought about but it’s interesting to consider… the La Niña enhancing the Phase 7 pattern. Look at what’s happened in the west (esp the Sierra Nevada of California). The big concern there leading into winter with the ENSO being a Nina was continued drought conditions especially in that part of the west and about the most opposite thing that could probably occur has happened.

But yea models have been all over this super -PNA all month, I mentioned previously that getting into the territory it has gotten into was probably going to be a primary driver over the -NAO/AO and it was going to have to neutralize at least some. It shouldn’t be a surprise that we ended up where we are currently at going through this month on this side of the country. 

 

I read his post today. I’m focusing on the last sentence from the section that you quoted. The ensembles are taking the -PNA from off of the charts negative towards closer to neutral or just slightly negative. This could allow the other pattern drivers to take over, such as the MJO, which as you mentioned looks to soon be heading finally into phase 8.

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TimB

TimB

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41 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

@TimB84quick question, do you have a link for daily coop reports for the Pitt NWS?  Most other WFO’s offices have easy access to their data but I couldn’t find any for Pitt.  

I think I tried to find this once and failed but I didn’t look very hard. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

60F days are a dime a dozen :D We can hit 60F 12 months out of the year and though I love cars and particularly my 87 Heavily modified Buick Grand National and like tearing up the asphalt with it . I can do it every month of the year . I can only track snow 4 months out of the year:mapsnow: . 

Btw ...I'm guessing 47 high tomorrow 

Tomorrow is not a snow tracking day.  I was bemoaning the 60 run.  Sucks.  Hrrr has me getting to 56 or 57.  Not so high on your side.   Driving through all the snow covered landscape of western Adams and Cumberland County was great today but then I got home and ran through the next 5 days on the globals and it just sucked.  Lol.

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