Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

My pack is holding up     High was 33.  Back to 31 now 

That is like Tug Hill compared to over here.  It got to 38 today. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

It looks like this on Pivotal so you can see my confusion:

 

Even being ice its not as bad as I thought.  Not what we wanted of course.  Only an hour or two away from our next shot. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

They were making snow 3 days in a row before XMas.  

We are a visitors delight right now.  Golf and skiing all in the same town. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

We are a visitors delight right now.  Golf and skiing all in the same town. 

4 season resort.    Golf might win out for little while longer.   

[CarlislePaWx]

33.4 here now after a high of 35.2.  Snow slowly compacting but still around 1.3".

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

4 season resort.    Golf might win out for little while longer.   

Sort of ironic but if you look at the banner/cover picture, for Liberty, it shows skiers with snow all around them...except anywhere in the background/valley.  LOL.

 

 

[paweather]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Only looked at one thing on the 12Z GFS, the snow map, and this is not exactly a shut out look.  All fantasy snow but after all the negative posts I was expecting basically nothing. 

 

I didn’t see anything negative just frustration we are not nearly the MA forum.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

I didn’t see anything negative just frustration we are not nearly the MA forum.

Not sure what the difference is.  I meant negative as negative PBP.  Was expecting more of a torch.   Jan 3rd is close and Jan 9th is an ice storm.  

 

Signed-Blizz for a day

 

 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not sure what the difference is.  I meant negative as negative PBP.  Was expecting more of a torch.   Jan 3rd is close and Jan 9th is an ice storm.  

 

Signed-Blizz for a day

 

 

haha! OK understood. And negative PBP will happen just like every year but we aren’t close to being the MA forum. 

[Itstrainingtime]

35 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Meanwhile, out at Mammoth Mountain......

 

11:00 AM Update: Due to extreme snowfall rates, no visibility, high winds and recent temporary power outages we are suspending operations for the day out of Main Lodge.

It's been dumping all morning! This latest round of storms has dropped 3+ feet and counting, bringing our December snowfall to over 12 feet at Main Lodge! Avalanche mitigation work is taking place across the mountain this morning as our team works to keep up with heavy snowfall. Currently the lower-mountain lifts out of Eagle and Canyon Lodge are open. We are working to expand terrain as conditions allow. With a layer of blower snow on top, it's going to be a good time in the white room!

Check the lift status page for real time operating information. Weather holds and closures are in place for the safety of our guests and employees – please adhere to ALL closures. Avalanche Danger is very high after all this new snow.

The snow is very DEEP and light out there now. Snow Immersion Suffocation (SIS) danger is a reality during heavy snowfall periods like this. Ski and ride with a buddy and keep your buddy in sight at all times.

Let it snow!

I was gonna do this earlier today but was waiting for today's totals to come in. What an amazing week out there! I checked the Village cam about an hour ago and there was zero visibility. 15' of snow in 6 days. Wow...

[Itstrainingtime]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I wonder if season opening dates has ever been tracked re: earliest, latest, etc.  Think this is pretty late.   Ski Liberty opens Wednesday but only the beginner area so sort of a very soft opening. 

I saw that after I posted about Roundtop. Only thing Roundtop has open other than beginner terrain is Minuteman.

By the way, no measurable rain here today. It was all snow save for some drizzle. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

haha! OK understood. And negative PBP will happen just like every year but we aren’t close to being the MA forum. 

I said we were like the the MA forum because Voyager said the forum was quiet and he could tell that meant bad model runs.  Not because anyone was negative :-).

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

18 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

33.4 here now after a high of 35.2.  Snow slowly compacting but still around 1.3".

Highest temp for me so far is 33.6. Currently it's 33.1

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was gonna do this earlier today but was waiting for today's totals to come in. What an amazing week out there! I checked the Village cam about an hour ago and there was zero visibility. 15' of snow in 6 days. Wow...

How 'bout it!?  Yeah I should have waited, looks like another 1+ foot for them on the way.

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I saw that after I posted about Roundtop. Only thing Roundtop has open other than beginner terrain is Minuteman.

By the way, no measurable rain here today. It was all snow save for some drizzle. 

Same, didn't notice any mixing by the time things dried up.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I saw that after I posted about Roundtop. Only thing Roundtop has open other than beginner terrain is Minuteman.

By the way, no measurable rain here today. It was all snow save for some drizzle. 

Another "elevation is not always good" example.  LOL.  I am elevated on the wrong side of the mountain for systems moving by to our west.    We had more rain today than any day in a long time. 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Another "elevation is not always good" example.  LOL.  I am elevated on the wrong side of the mountain for systems moving by to our west.    We had more rain today than any day in a long time. 

That's a good thing - I'd gladly take some more rain at this point. 

[paweather]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I said we were like the the MA forum because Voyager said the forum was quiet and he could tell that meant bad model runs.  Not because anyone was negative :-).

 

 

It’s all good 

[Cashtown_Coop]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Another "elevation is not always good" example.  LOL.  I am elevated on the wrong side of the mountain for systems moving by to our west.    We had more rain today than any day in a long time. 

Your location works well blocking the easterly fetch of warm air.   The big storm last year I was getting pinged and you were heavy snow.   

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Your location works well blocking the easterly fetch of warm air.   The big storm last year I was getting pinged and you were heavy snow.   

No doubt.  If the storm is to our south east, I am golden.  

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt.  If the storm is to our south east, I am golden.  

You’ve stolen plenty of snow from me 

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

You’ve stolen plenty of snow from me 

I’m watching GFS run come in on Pivotal.   There’s a ton of cold air in the west.  By hr 33, it’s surging south and East

[Cashtown_Coop]

5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’m watching GFS run come in on Pivotal.   There’s a ton of cold air in the west.  By hr 33, it’s surging south and East

Then stalls and reloads lol.   -42 showing up in Canada  

[MAG5035]

58 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Even being ice its not as bad as I thought.  Not what we wanted of course.  Only an hour or two away from our next shot. 

Yea I get the models aren’t showing much digital snow today in the long range and are showing some cutters in the interim but I really don’t share the pessimism of the 12z suite. 

I see some decent things brewing in the ensemble means. I see the PNA forecasts steadily starting to come out of the hole (below -6 st dev currently) to a lesser negative value or even almost to neutral in the Euro EPS case by the end of the run. EPO briefly touches positive (around the period of the after New Years system) before going back negative. WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) remains negative which means that Pac ridge is going to likely continue to be a fixture. NAO/AO realm not as negative but nothing I see as overly detrimental. If that super -PNA neutralizes even some and we keep our general base state with the other teleconnections, that’s going to broaden what has been a very sharp western trough and allow the cold to push east and level off the SE ridge. Probably not going to be really cold initially unless/until we get an actual western ridge but it doesn’t need to be -20 to snow.

This system coming New Years weekend is likely going to be the first thing that allows an actual shot of colder air east in awhile. Just said yesterday the system itself probably cuts (and depending on a kicker right behind it is low probability at best in most cases). We’ll see how the pattern evolves. Individual features/systems in the longer range are background noise to me at this point beyond this weekend system. I’m concentrating at the bigger picture features. The MJO is also starting to edge toward 8 and is finally starting to get into there on some of the model forecasts. 

With all that business 7-10+ days down the road, I’m also sitting here wondering if the next wave of precip tomorrow night tries to do what this morning’s wave did maybe getting some frozen further south than advertised.  The majority of snowfall on that 12z GFS forecast today in northern PA comes from that. Probably looking at a another advisory for the northern counties (potentially for straight up snow) and at least some of the central ones for mix. This is on the other models too (swath a tad further north on most other guidance). Sus Valley probably is gonna be a bit too warm for this one but it’s fairly close to being a second wintry event during a week that had appeared to be to be the warmest/most hostile period in the actual 15 day forecasts. 

 

[paweather]

8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I get the models aren’t showing much digital snow today in the long range and are showing some cutters in the interim but I really don’t share the pessimism of the 12z suite. 

I see some decent things brewing in the ensemble means. I see the PNA forecasts steadily starting to come out of the hole (below -6 st dev currently) to a lesser negative value or even almost to neutral in the Euro EPS case by the end of the run. EPO briefly touches positive (around the period of the after New Years system) before going back negative. WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) remains negative which means that Pac ridge is going to likely continue to be a fixture. NAO/AO realm not as negative but nothing I see as overly detrimental. If that super -PNA neutralizes even some and we keep our general base state with the other teleconnections, that’s going to broaden what has been a very sharp western trough and allow the cold to push east and level off the SE ridge. Probably not going to be really cold initially unless/until we get an actual western ridge but it doesn’t need to be -20 to snow.

This system coming New Years weekend is likely going to be the first thing that allows an actual shot of colder air east in awhile. Just said yesterday the system itself probably cuts (and depending on a kicker right behind it is low probability at best in most cases). We’ll see how the pattern evolves. Individual features/systems in the longer range are background noise to me at this point beyond this weekend system. I’m concentrating at the bigger picture features. The MJO is also starting to edge toward 8 and is finally starting to get into there on some of the model forecasts. 

With all that business 7-10+ days down the road, I’m also sitting here wondering if the next wave of precip tomorrow night tries to do what this morning’s wave did maybe getting some frozen further south than advertised.  The majority of snowfall on that 12z GFS forecast today in northern PA comes from that. Probably looking at a another advisory for the northern counties (potentially for straight up snow) and at least some of the central ones for mix. This is on the other models too (swath a tad further north on most other guidance). Sus Valley probably is gonna be a bit too warm for this one but it’s fairly close to being a second wintry event during a week that had appeared to be to be the warmest/most hostile period in the actual 15 day forecasts. 

 

Thanks Mag

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I get the models aren’t showing much digital snow today in the long range and are showing some cutters in the interim but I really don’t share the pessimism of the 12z suite. 

I see some decent things brewing in the ensemble means. I see the PNA forecasts steadily starting to come out of the hole (below -6 st dev currently) to a lesser negative value or even almost to neutral in the Euro EPS case by the end of the run. EPO briefly touches positive (around the period of the after New Years system) before going back negative. WPO (West Pacific Oscillation) remains negative which means that Pac ridge is going to likely continue to be a fixture. NAO/AO realm not as negative but nothing I see as overly detrimental. If that super -PNA neutralizes even some and we keep our general base state with the other teleconnections, that’s going to broaden what has been a very sharp western trough and allow the cold to push east and level off the SE ridge. Probably not going to be really cold initially unless/until we get an actual western ridge but it doesn’t need to be -20 to snow.

This system coming New Years weekend is likely going to be the first thing that allows an actual shot of colder air east in awhile. Just said yesterday the system itself probably cuts (and depending on a kicker right behind it is low probability at best in most cases). We’ll see how the pattern evolves. Individual features/systems in the longer range are background noise to me at this point beyond this weekend system. I’m concentrating at the bigger picture features. The MJO is also starting to edge toward 8 and is finally starting to get into there on some of the model forecasts. 

With all that business 7-10+ days down the road, I’m also sitting here wondering if the next wave of precip tomorrow night tries to do what this morning’s wave did maybe getting some frozen further south than advertised.  The majority of snowfall on that 12z GFS forecast today in northern PA comes from that. Probably looking at a another advisory for the northern counties (potentially for straight up snow) and at least some of the central ones for mix. This is on the other models too (swath a tad further north on most other guidance). Sus Valley probably is gonna be a bit too warm for this one but it’s fairly close to being a second wintry event during a week that had appeared to be to be the warmest/most hostile period in the actual 15 day forecasts. 

 

Thanks for your excellent discussions. I was wondering the same about tomorrow. This area, Danville, was supposed to get an inch or two of snow today, but it completely missed to the south.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Another op run with the 2 wave idea for Jan 1-3  . HH Gfs 

Jan 3rd is definitely our focus, IMO.    Lot's of two wave runs so far.  Like I mentioned a few days ago, the impact is huge is something big happens.   Jan 3rd is the first day back to work for many. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Another op run with the 2 wave idea for Jan 1-3  . HH Gfs . The 1st wave drags the boundary across then the follow up ...thread the needle but becoming more and more possible as we near .

I’m only at 120

[Itstrainingtime]

[Voyager]

22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks for your excellent discussions. I was wondering the same about tomorrow. This area, Danville, was supposed to get an inch or two of snow today, but it completely missed to the south.

Hey, I went through Danville about 3pm... Anyway, as best as I could figure, no one north of 78 or east of the Susquehanna got anything. Even snowy Hazleton had bare grass.

[Cashtown_Coop]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Very similar to 12z euro in sliding out instead of up