KPITSnow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I would be very surprised west. But no hard feelings from most if you get heavy snow. Tracking is fun. The 850 low punching warm air up into the far south corner of PA was a warning sign I guess. If the GFS came back east now I'd be fine. This run actually pushed it into Cleveland lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: That is why I expect either a correction east or west. On a mobile so hard to move over but most of the wind is east of the center if I saw the panel correctly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: If the GFS came back east now I'd be fine. This run actually pushed it into Cleveland lol. Gfs is extreme west compared to the other 0z suite and the gefs. It really scores a coup if it goes any further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS is definitely less amplified. EC heights are lower and the jet is weaker. the NS energy is also holding to the north this will be SE. from another poster on GEFS Update, good bit southeast this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I almost want this to get to savannah then the low hook over Pittsburgh. That’d be an epic failure for millions lol My guess is in two days we have a lot different look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Gem is also into PA from a post I just read. Bed time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The GFS ensemble is posted over in MA. It’s absolute chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather5 said: That’s legit hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, canderson said: The GFS ensemble is posted over in MA. It’s absolute chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, paweather5 said: Ukmet moved the low about 50 miles east this run. New run to old run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If some gfs members are right we’re all smoking cirrus while mid Atlantic makes out, gonna be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, canderson said: The GFS ensemble is posted over in MA. It’s absolute chaos. Lol it really is though, the snow mean is down across PA (generally 4-6”) but over a majority of it. I assumed there were several members following the GFS op in punching a lot of mixing into PA but I was definitely wrong in that assumption. I see like one such member, the rest are snow and some don’t really hit PA. Good news I guess is that there isn’t any members that are trying any funny business like making the low more dominant on the other side of the Apps. My educated guess is that the operational models are presenting this system as stacking and occluding as it arrives into the Mid-Atlantic region and giving the models fits in terms of the temp fields aloft and p-type and just evolution in general. For example, I simply don’t see the whole western part of the state sleeting like the Canadian has with the intense precipitation. I would imagine this should be more of a case of how far inside the tracks and how far in the low level warmth punches. And again, this warm punch is brief and happens after the main initial slug of precip. The storm is stacked with the really deep 500mb low moving overhead and should rapidly reestablish a snow friendly column, even with the surface low over PA. The problem is just with the best total QPF residing with the comma head, which would be west of the LSV with an inside surface low track. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Might as well throw in the Canadian ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 models are on crack and drinking . start of the weak way south and out to sea a day later way north just off the coast. half a day later way west running up the apps. Watch tomorrow they are back out to sea and they will say operational errors lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z Euro still brings the low right into the LSV. The low this run actually passes not too far from my house on Monday morning. It still has a solid front end thump of snow for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Here is the 0z Euro snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My handbook says to just hug the model that gives me the most snow… so tonight the winner is the 0z ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 How’s wind looking? 980 to 985 mb low should have it cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: How’s wind looking? 980 to 985 mb low should have it cranking. Ask @canderson tomorrow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Ask @canderson tomorrow? Lol he’s resident wind man! No matter what this thing looks to bring interesting weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro ensemble stuff. Really ramped up accumulation probs in true central and western. Unfortunately also looks like it’s solidified with what the op is trying to sell sending the surface low up into eastern PA. Accum mean: Individual surface low tracks (using 0z vs 12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Here is the 6z GFS. Slight shift east on 6z vs. 0z. Then a second low developed off of the coast of southern New England at hour 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The 6z GEFS is still well east of other Ops & ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 We still have a few days to get a 50 or so mile adjustment in the Ops which would give the LSV a better chance at more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We still have a few days to get a 50 or so mile adjustment in the Ops which would give the LSV a better chance at more snow. Yes. I think we see an East shift. S/W coming in the coast today, with better sampling we’ll have to except what’s shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: At hour 96 on Pivotal you can actually see the SLP jump briefly from N.Va to Delaware. Something to watch in the future runs As some have pointed out in here & in the the Mid Atlantic thread, the models are trying to figure out where to place the low as it stacks at our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Borrowed this from the MA Incoming front end blitz. Serious snowfall rates in Va verbatim That works for me! Bring the good rates for 6 or more hours of heavy snow & then let the chips fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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