Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Bubbler86]

23 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The CMC would like a word with you. Oh wait, it’s on something.

It's hard to go against trend.  But could be wrong.  Seems CMC is in the low to mid 40's here. 

[canderson]

My Christmas Day pick is 55 and sun. 

[Voyager]

46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did you put a forecast in for the Christmas day contest?  My 49 looks a bit low right now.  May change.  

No I didn't. Not yet anyway. Just got done helping make hot bacon potato salad for the wife's family Christmas party. I'll have to look things over later. Where do I enter it? Just in a regular post?

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Okay...okay...everybody wishing for a west-based NAO can please stop wishing!  The center of the high heights have overshot and aren't even over Greenland on these maps.

Here's MU's weather director's take on the upcoming pattern, and note what he says regarding the NAO:

 The three primary features driving our weather pattern so far this month have been a persistent ridge of high pressure in the Bering Sea, a deep trough across western North America, and a lack of downstream blocking in the North Atlantic. Although I don't see the first two features changing much over the next 2-3 weeks, a blocking high pressure system has already returned to the North Atlantic over the past 24 hours and will slowly intensify and retrograde westward over the next 7-14 days. I'm not going to go into the meteorology behind why this blocking is returning (believe me, it would be a long dissertation!), but what it means for us is a transition back into a more typical winter pattern by late December and early January. However, it's vital to remember that the exact location of the blocking is key for our snow chances and that computer models often overdue the strength and westward extent of the blocking. If the blocking fails to center itself to the south and west of Greenland, then we'll be left with a pattern much like what we saw at the end of November: one featuring pseudo-cold (and still a few mild days) and weak, northern- branch storm systems or systems that try to cut into the Great Lakes region. Even if the blocking does become centered farther west, we'll still be fighting the effects of the Bering Sea ridge and deep trough in the western US, both of which try to force warmer air into the East. So, I think the prudent call at this point is to realize that any truly Arctic cold shots aren't in the cards until after the New Year and that "changeover" or "mixed-bag" precipitation events are most likely. Any snow events we do see are likely to remain light (on the order of a few inches or less), and specific details on any particular system will remain obscure beyond 4 or 5 days

[Itstrainingtime]

Christmas Day: Partly sunny and 52 at MDT. (my call)

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

No I didn't. Not yet anyway. Just got done helping make hot bacon potato salad for the wife's family Christmas party. I'll have to look things over later. Where do I enter it? Just in a regular post?

Yep.  We are just throwing them out there.  Honor system and memory :-). 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Here's MU's weather director's take on the upcoming pattern, and note what he says regarding the NAO:

 The three primary features driving our weather pattern so far this month have been a persistent ridge of high pressure in the Bering Sea, a deep trough across western North America, and a lack of downstream blocking in the North Atlantic. Although I don't see the first two features changing much over the next 2-3 weeks, a blocking high pressure system has already returned to the North Atlantic over the past 24 hours and will slowly intensify and retrograde westward over the next 7-14 days. I'm not going to go into the meteorology behind why this blocking is returning (believe me, it would be a long dissertation!), but what it means for us is a transition back into a more typical winter pattern by late December and early January. However, it's vital to remember that the exact location of the blocking is key for our snow chances and that computer models often overdue the strength and westward extent of the blocking. If the blocking fails to center itself to the south and west of Greenland, then we'll be left with a pattern much like what we saw at the end of November: one featuring pseudo-cold (and still a few mild days) and weak, northern- branch storm systems or systems that try to cut into the Great Lakes region. Even if the blocking does become centered farther west, we'll still be fighting the effects of the Bering Sea ridge and deep trough in the western US, both of which try to force warmer air into the East. So, I think the prudent call at this point is to realize that any truly Arctic cold shots aren't in the cards until after the New Year and that "changeover" or "mixed-bag" precipitation events are most likely. Any snow events we do see are likely to remain light (on the order of a few inches or less), and specific details on any particular system will remain obscure beyond 4 or 5 days

Basically the 6Z 15 day GFS

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Basically the 6Z 15 day GFS

Yeppers. (Note - that text is a small quote from a longer post on the upcoming pattern, and was made on Friday) 

[TugHillMatt]

9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

No I didn't. Not yet anyway. Just got done helping make hot bacon potato salad for the wife's family Christmas party. I'll have to look things over later. Where do I enter it? Just in a regular post?

You sure do like heat.

[Voyager]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep.  We are just throwing them out there.  Honor system and memory :-). 

Is it for our backyard only or for regional locations?

If it's just for our own backyard location, after a quick peruse of the models and CTP, I'm going to say 45 for the high, partly to mostly cloudy, with a shower or two possible, but mainly dry.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Voyager said:

Is it for our backyard only or for regional locations?

If it's just for our own backyard location, after a quick peruse of the models and CTP, I'm going to say 45 for the high, partly to mostly cloudy, with a shower or two possible, but mainly dry.

I think we have to do MDT or MDT and another station.  Backyards is tough!  The 12Z GFS says we are all too low. 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, paweather said:

One run to the next run all different. I don’t know what to believe.

Step down continues....Pushes more chips in.  Cold is coming and hopefully some white.

MJO headed thru 7 and though strong push to 8 is now somewhat muted.  Thats a worry, but I'll take the above and roll w/ whatever we get, cause there are enough signs that appreciable change is coming.  Remember folks, the weather isnt a light switch or an app to order from.  We never had a great look through christmas, and still dont...Its only been advertised as a better one, but that doesnt mean instant correlation to snow.  Hoping MJO comes around as that would be the final piece to appreciable changes for us

and yes, I've seen the maps.....AO and NAO couplet will likely diminish the effects of SC ridge that has been screwin us.  Yes, that blob south of AK needs to come east and cant be ignored, but no matter the result, the base state is changing.  

[Voyager]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think we have to do MDT or MDT and another station.  Backyards is tough!  The 12Z GFS says we are all too low. 

Gotcha. For MDT I'll go with 52.

[Greensnow]

Didn't know what those white things falling out of the sky this AM were up here. Just enough to remind you that it can actually snow.

Seriously- I have been up in NEPA for 25 years and have more white St. Patrick's Day vs Christmas Day. Seemed very likely when I first moved up here but for the past 20 years our winter weather is January through mid-April. Probably colder Easter Sundays than Christmas Days as well which is crazy.

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Christmas Day: Partly sunny and 52 at MDT. (my call)

 

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Gotcha. For MDT I'll go with 52.

We'll see how smart we are.   

[Voyager]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

 

We'll see how smart we are.   

Oh wow. I didn't even see your forecast. We're going to nail it...

[Voyager]

5 minutes ago, Greensnow said:

Didn't know what those white things falling out of the sky this AM were up here. Just enough to remind you that it can actually snow.

Seriously- I have been up in NEPA for 25 years and have more white St. Patrick's Day vs Christmas Day. Seemed very likely when I first moved up here but for the past 20 years our winter weather is January through mid-April. Probably colder Easter Sundays than Christmas Days as well which is crazy.

I used to do sports photos for the Times News down here in Lehighton, and I will tell that, no joke, I froze more often shooting spring high school baseball and softball games than I did shooting football in the fall.

[Atomixwx]

Christmas Day pick: 42 in MDT and UNV, 46 in LNS, 38 in AOO, and 37 along the front.

 

[pasnownut]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Basically the 6Z 15 day GFS

last 3 runs at 6hr differences are shown below. You found a map that matches what MU says, but forgot to look at the one 6hrs earlier (or the one before that....)  Pictured below is why its hard for me to wrap my head around LR Op guidance, but you do you bud. As you've questioned and poo poohed my voodo dolls used, I'm only doing the same.  I guess we both keep banging our drums and one of us may be correct....even if for the wrong reasons.  Just little to no continuity in LR Op guidance.  Savings grace for warmies is that its notably much easier to find warmth these days, so you may end up correct even if not for LR Op guidance. 

also if one uses the roll forward method towards the end of ens guidance that pig ridge seems to be headed SE which is signaled by PNA headed + down the road.  

Dont be mad....i'm just chatting up weather on a weather board in my quest to find answers....and snow.  .  Your one of the few that throws their thoughts and feelings out as to the why and why nots....and I respect that.  

6hrs later....lol

 

[TimB]

Hopefully the ensembles continue to look better than the rubbish the 12z GFS just spit out.

[Bubbler86]

54 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

last 3 runs at 6hr differences are shown below. You found a map that matches what MU says, but forgot to look at the one 6hrs earlier (or the one before that....)  Pictured below is why its hard for me to wrap my head around LR Op guidance, but you do you bud. As you've questioned and poo poohed my voodo dolls used, I'm only doing the same.  I guess we both keep banging our drums and one of us may be correct....even if for the wrong reasons.  Just little to no continuity in LR Op guidance.  Savings grace for warmies is that its notably much easier to find warmth these days, so you may end up correct even if not for LR Op guidance. 

also if one uses the roll forward method towards the end of ens guidance that pig ridge seems to be headed SE which is signaled by PNA headed + down the road.  

Dont be mad....i'm just chatting up weather on a weather board in my quest to find answers....and snow.  .  Your one of the few that throws their thoughts and feelings out as to the why and why nots....and I respect that.  

 

 

6hrs later....lol

 

 

I am not banging anything, I was just talking about the current run of the GFS at the point Training posted the MU stuff.  I did not look for a model, I just posted the current run and how it had changed from last night.    The 6Z (and now 12Z) GFS was not a good look for us.  Trying to forecast the MJO is voodoo stuff to me.  It's one thing to say what phase we are in but (mostly on MA) suggesting what phase we will next be in is not forecastable,  IMO.   So discussing it is great but making definitive statements that it will happen, is not the best in my opinion.  But when I made that statement, I did not have you in mind vs. the MA LR thread.  Forecasting off teleconnections is akin to 200 and 300HR GFS maps in my opinion.   One can say what the teleconnections show but they are modeled just like the OP runs.  LOL, I am not mad.   I have posted about snow chances several times in the last week....looking for a needle in a haystack as it were.   I will say that some posts suggested we would be heading into a colder time starting now and I think that was off base. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

last 3 runs at 6hr differences are shown below. You found a map that matches what MU says, but forgot to look at the one 6hrs earlier (or the one before that....)  Pictured below is why its hard for me to wrap my head around LR Op guidance, but you do you bud. As you've questioned and poo poohed my voodo dolls used, I'm only doing the same.  I guess we both keep banging our drums and one of us may be correct....even if for the wrong reasons.  Just little to no continuity in LR Op guidance.  Savings grace for warmies is that its notably much easier to find warmth these days, so you may end up correct even if not for LR Op guidance. 

also if one uses the roll forward method towards the end of ens guidance that pig ridge seems to be headed SE which is signaled by PNA headed + down the road.  

Dont be mad....i'm just chatting up weather on a weather board in my quest to find answers....and snow.  .  Your one of the few that throws their thoughts and feelings out as to the why and why nots....and I respect that.  

 

 

6hrs later....lol

 

 

Another thing, just to be up front, you would would have to look long and hard where I replied to a teleconnections post directly.  The comments you attributed to me were in response to someone attacking my less than rosy outlook at that time.   I do not enjoy the teleconnection talk so mostly stay out of it...but when its used to refute my opinion, I will give my opinion of it.  Let's face it...we had that bad day some 7-10 days ago and the OP runs did pretty well in predicting a less than ideal pattern for the next 7-10 days coming up. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Temps are definitely stepped down this week from last week’s 50s & 60s.

Here is my point & click for the next 5 days…

The colder pattern change is underway…very seasonal average temps here…

This Afternoon

Sunny, with a high near 40. North wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. 

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm after midnight. 

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 40. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph in the afternoon. 

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 26. South wind 3 to 5 mph. 

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 44. Light and variable wind. 

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 44.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 25.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 40.

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Hopefully the ensembles continue to look better than the rubbish the 12z GFS just spit out.

Just looked at the end of the GFS.  In the mode of crazy weather, that is REALLY cold in the upper Mid West.     Pray your car does not break down cold. 

 

[TugHillMatt]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just looked at the end of the GFS.  In the mode of crazy weather, that is REALLY cold in the upper Mid West.     Pray your car does not break down cold. 

 

All I could see was that STUPID GREEN covering our areas during what is supposed to be our "Real Winter Pattern."

I imagine it would come after this, but still.....

[Itstrainingtime]

37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am not banging anything, I was just talking about the current run of the GFS at the point Training posted the MU stuff.  I did not look for a model, I just posted the current run and how it had changed from last night.    The 6Z (and now 12Z) GFS was not a good look for us.  Trying to forecast the MJO is voodoo stuff to me.  It's one thing to say what phase we are in but (mostly on MA) suggesting what phase we will next be in is not forecastable,  IMO.   So discussing it is great but making definitive statements that it will happen, is not the best in my opinion.  But when I made that statement, I did not have you in mind vs. the MA LR thread.  Forecasting off teleconnections is akin to 200 and 300HR GFS maps in my opinion.   One can say what the teleconnections show but they are modeled just like the OP runs.  LOL, I am not mad.   I have posted about snow chances several times in the last week....looking for a needle in a haystack as it were.   I will say that some posts suggested we would be heading into a colder time starting now and I think that was off base. 

Yeah, and I posted MU's comments to support what Carlisle was saying. Wasn't my opinion, just thought it would fit there.

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

All I could see was that STUPID GREEN covering our areas during what is supposed to be our "Real Winter Pattern."

I imagine it would come after this, but still.....

384 so....LOL.  But I agree with your sentiment I think.  No slam dunk winter weather for a bit.   Models are insistent on not allowing the Southern Stream system, late next week, to get tugged up.   On the plus side, lots of people travelling so decent weather is good for them. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

So, I think the prudent call at this point is to realize that any truly Arctic cold shots aren't in the cards until after the New Year and that "changeover" or "mixed-bag" precipitation events are most likely. Any snow events we do see are likely to remain light (on the order of a few inches or less), and specific details on any particular system will remain obscure beyond 4 or 5 days

I like the MU call.

The majority of even our decent Winters are built on these types of storms. We usually have at least a few changeover or mixed bag storms every year. Most of time we are adding up 2.8 +1.9 + 3.6 etc. of snow to get to our yearly total amounts.

Storms that bring a widespread snow of 6+ or 12+ are rare. We just had 2 double digit storms last year, so odds are against it this year.

I am ready to enjoy a a Winter storm in whatever way we can get it!

 

[TimB]

15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

All I could see was that STUPID GREEN covering our areas during what is supposed to be our "Real Winter Pattern."

I imagine it would come after this, but still.....

I would have also imagined that the part of the run where the 500 heights were well into the blue would produce BN temps here, but…

[Bubbler86]

The EC is upper 60's and low 70's on Christmas.  It's the extreme high but the CMC and GFS and 60's.  Crazy.