Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Blizzard of 93]

56 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

Three days ago I came down with Covid and getting my butt kicked. I had it prior to vax and it wasn’t that bad. This time the chest pain has been unreal. Fever and chills. Not sure what strain I got but it’s brutal. I know good many people saying the same thing. I went to WellSpan for testing and the line was 50 people deep no joke. I also work in medical field and see multiple hospitals and it’s not good what they are saying. What’s scary is the amount of people I know with the vax saying it’s rocking them hard as well. 

Very sorry to hear that!

Get well soon.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GFS has Christmas Eve day light snow for us.

 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, paweather5 said:

Three days ago I came down with Covid and getting my butt kicked. I had it prior to vax and it wasn’t that bad. This time the chest pain has been unreal. Fever and chills. Not sure what strain I got but it’s brutal. I know good many people saying the same thing. I went to WellSpan for testing and the line was 50 people deep no joke. I also work in medical field and see multiple hospitals and it’s not good what they are saying. What’s scary is the amount of people I know with the vax saying it’s rocking them hard as well. 

I’m so sorry - it’s a quagmire right now. Hang in there. ERs are turning away people which is frightening. 
 

We got our boosters 5 weeks ago so peek efficiency but we are hunkered back down and not doing any social stuff and very limited trips into buildings. 

[Bubbler86]

3 hours ago, paweather said:

Just Canada is going no fans. I don’t think it will happen here. 3 FB games rescheduled to Monday and Tuesday. 

Yep, that was why I mentioned Habs. 

[Bubbler86]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

I do remember.  Glad you are better.  I got the iHealth test.  From what little I've looked into it, it seems rather accurate.  My symptoms are more like omni, not delta.  Anywhoo...thanks bud.  It's early, but I'm hoping my 1 dose of Phzr does it's thingy and it stays mild.  

Get better.  I know lots of people who have tested positive in the last month.  I just took the home Binax test and it came up negative for me. Do not feel sick just precaution.  It is not bad in Florida right now.  Getting bad here though. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, paweather5 said:

Three days ago I came down with Covid and getting my butt kicked. I had it prior to vax and it wasn’t that bad. This time the chest pain has been unreal. Fever and chills. Not sure what strain I got but it’s brutal. I know good many people saying the same thing. I went to WellSpan for testing and the line was 50 people deep no joke. I also work in medical field and see multiple hospitals and it’s not good what they are saying. What’s scary is the amount of people I know with the vax saying it’s rocking them hard as well. 

It almost seems to be hitting Vax people more often.  Maybe that is a result of more people being vaxxed (in metor areas at least) than not. 

[pasnownut]

56 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Get better.  I know lots of people who have tested positive in the last month.  I just took the home Binax test and it came up negative for me. Do not feel sick just precaution.  It is not bad in Florida right now.  Getting bad here though. 

Thanks bud. So far ok. Wishin you and the rest of the gang safe travels through the next round. Let’s hope Omni proves to be just a bad cold or flu.  Fortunately we are far better prepared heading into winter than we were a year ago. Hope that calms many but fear it wont. 

[TimB]

8 hours ago, TimB84 said:

The GFS and CMC ensembles both still look fine for next weekend and beyond, but I feel like I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop once again.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

The pattern still looks great moving forward.

The week long warm up is over tomorrow.

Next week we have chances to track.

The better window is just beginning to open with no sign of closing anytime soon.

 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The pattern still looks great moving forward.

The week long warm up is over tomorrow.

Next week we have chances to track.

The better window is just beginning to open with no sign of closing anytime soon.

 

Best guess at high temp Christmas Day…go.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Best guess at high temp Christmas Day…go.

It all depends if we get clouds and any precip…or if we have partly cloudy.

Either way it looks seasonal

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Welcome back Winter to CTP

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
233 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021

PAZ017>019-045-046-049>053-058-181945-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Schuylkill-
233 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A light wintry mix is expected to develop late tonight over the
northern tier of the Commonwealth, generally for areas near, and just
to the north of Interstate 80. Locally slippery travel conditions
are possible on any untreated surfaces.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A light wintry mix of sleet, and perhaps some patchy freezing rain
on the ridge tops, is likely to continue Saturday morning, mainly
near and to the north of Interstate 80.

Again, localized slippery travel conditions are possible on
untreated surfaces. Temperatures will warm enough for primarily rain
by Saturday afternoon.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Another welcome back to the northern tier of CTP tonight and tomorrow…

Winter Weather Advisory

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 221 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-181000- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0026.211218T0900Z-211218T1800Z/

 

Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, and Laporte

221 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 ...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...The Northern Mountains of Pennsylvania

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery conditions on untreated

 

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It all depends if we get clouds and any precip…or if we have partly cloudy.

Either way it looks seasonal

 

What do you describe as seasonal? +5 departures? +10? How many degrees above or below normal can you be and still be “seasonable”?

[Bubbler86]

17 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Best guess at high temp Christmas Day…go.

49.  And I would call seasonal with a few degrees of average.

[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

What do you describe as seasonal? +5 departures? +10? How many degrees above or below normal can you be and still be “seasonable”?

How about “No torch” this Christmas.

Seasonable means within a few degrees of average.

The end of my CTP point & click for Christmas Eve:

Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 41.

I would call this Seasonable.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

It’s good to see Advisories & Warnings from northern PA up through New England for tomorrow.

Our time is coming soon. The pattern change is just beginning.

[CarlislePaWx]

I'm going with 38 degrees on Christmas day.  By the way, the first 17 days of this month for me are among the driest I've seen since 1989.  That was a December to remember.  I had a total of only 0.63" of precipitation for the entire month, most of that occurring during the final 6 hours of the month!  It was absolutely the coldest December I've ever lived through.  Temperatures for the month were 10 degrees below normal.  I remember my average low temp for the month was 14 degrees (this was in northern NJ).  It was so cold (and dry!) that there was no liquid precip that fell for the entire month until 4 hours before midnight on the 31st.  All of the precip up to that point had been snow.  Unfortunately, it wasn't very much snow.  The forecast for New Year's Eve night was for snow developing but then quickly mixing with and changing to rain.  I was only four hours away from experiencing a rainless month.  The snow began around 6:00pm and by 8:00pm it began to change over.  By 9:00pm it had gone over to all rain.  It practically ruined my New Year's Eve festivities..(LOL). I was so upset about coming soooooo close to setting another record for the month.  Hard to believe that was 32 years ago.  That brings me back to the start of my story.  I have only recorded a whopping total of 0.13" of rain this month so far.  This dryness is coming off of a very dry November with less than 2" for last month.  I know I'm just hours away from the rain arriving so we'll see how much gets added to the total.

[canderson]

Think tmrw afternoon is dry and fairly warm. This December blows.  

[Bubbler86]

6 hours ago, canderson said:

Think tmrw afternoon is dry and fairly warm. This December blows.  

The models have been depicting a Miller B like screw job for much of Southern PA.  Dry, dry.  If that happens some could get little to no rain.  

[Bubbler86]

Have not been following much this last week, so guessing someone has already posted, but if the vorts are timed a bit differently mid to late week, we have a snow storm on our hands next week.  Basing that off this AM's run. 

[mahantango#1]

Its been a fairly dry month here with only .43 precip. falling and that includes .09 from the rain event we have now.

[mahantango#1]

47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Have not been following much this last week, so guessing someone has already posted, but if the vorts are timed a bit differently mid to late week, we have a snow storm on our hands next week.  Basing that off this AM's run. 

Are you going out on a limb and calling for a storm? Sooner or later it will come, we been lucky so far.

[Itstrainingtime]

Picked up .13" overnight. Currently cloudy and 39. 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Have not been following much this last week, so guessing someone has already posted, but if the vorts are timed a bit differently mid to late week, we have a snow storm on our hands next week.  Basing that off this AM's run. 

Sort of looks like that to me. 

[Blizzard of 93]

49 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Have not been following much this last week, so guessing someone has already posted, but if the vorts are timed a bit differently mid to late week, we have a snow storm on our hands next week.  Basing that off this AM's run. 

The models have backed off of the good looks for some minor winter events that some runs were showing over the last day or two for the time period right around and just beyond Christmas.

The ensembles look to be heading towards a much more favorable pattern for us in week 2 and rolling into the early New Year.

[TimB]

36 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The models have backed off of the good looks for some minor winter events that some runs were showing over the last day or two for the time period right around and just beyond Christmas.

The ensembles look to be heading towards a much more favorable pattern for us in week 2 and rolling into the early New Year.

I like to play a little game where I pick a random panel of an ensemble run and see if much has changed. I picked this one today:

I’m afraid to look at the 6z GFS. Maybe you already have, how much snow falls at MDT over the course of the run?

[MJO812]

Nao and AO are actually negative and going down even more as this month goes on.  We have to be patient. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

Are you going out on a limb and calling for a storm? Sooner or later it will come, we been lucky so far.

Oh not at all, I was just pointing out something with at least a modicum of interest in the models.  But maybe someone was already on it?  You have an SLP from both streams going by at the same time...and the southern system is loaded with moisture.  MR models are having none of it right now though.  

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nao and AO are actually negative and going down even more as this month goes on.  We have to be patient. 

Totally agree.  We are only 18 days into winter.  Patient in that something could happen and we are not in a total washout pattern. But assumptions that something great will happen is not good either, IMO.   It's always tough when we never get deep cold over us so waiting to see that consistently modeled.   The teleconnection's may support it but I personally need to see it modeled at least in the MR.