Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Totally agree.  We are only 18 days into winter.  Patient in that something could happen and we are not in a total washout pattern. But assumptions that something great will happen is not good either, IMO.   It's always tough when we never get deep cold over us so waiting to see that consistently modeled. 

Not going off the models or teleconnections but with how dry and mild it’s been the last 2 months, I think Mother Nature will balance things out and turn wet in the upcoming months.   Hopefully there’s enough cold air around during peak winter climo to cash in on some snow.    Again nothing scientific, but just a feeling I have.  

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Not going off the models or teleconnections but with how dry and mild it’s been the last 2 months, I think Mother Nature will balance things out and turn wet in the upcoming months.   Hopefully there’s enough cold air around during peak winter climo to cash in on some snow.    Again nothing scientific, but just a feeling I have.  

Yes, I was just thinking about this as well.

Hopefully the turn towards more wet will time out well with peak climo in January and February.

[pawatch]

12 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

It almost seems to be hitting Vax people more often.  Maybe that is a result of more people being vaxxed (in metor areas at least) than not. 

I was reading that in the NFL that some teams were testing unvaxxed players because the vaxxed was testing positive 2-1

They ended up getting in trouble. Think Browns was one of the teams.

We are just under the fringe of a weather advisory this morning.

“Freezing rain”

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are just a few big picture thoughts on Winter, when just comparing to last year.

Last year we had 1 really good Winter storm on December 16th that brought near 1 foot of snow in the Harrisburg area and near 2 feet in northern PA. 
We didn’t have any snow before the 12/16 storm and then nothing more than a car topper in January until the very last day of the month. We then had our second big storm on 1/31 into 2/1 that brought another 1 foot of snow to many in the LSV, while northeast PA got closer to 20 inches.

The pattern last year looked great at times, but December we cashed in on 1 great storm. The pattern last January looked good as well, but no storms got their act together until the end on the month when we cashed in with our 2nd good storm.

Then in February we had 3 or 4 more Advisory level events that combined to give our last foot of snow. Then in March, there was nothing again.

Last year the snow all added up to 36 inches, which is 5 inches above normal at MDT. 2 good storms gave us 67% of our seasonal snow last season.

My point is, we just need to be patient. We will have our chances. Hopefully we have a sustained run with several chances? Maybe we just get 1 or 2 good storms? Every Winter is different in how we get our snow. Let’s see how it plays out this year.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, pawatch said:

I was reading that in the NFL that some teams were testing unvaxxed players because the vaxxed was testing positive 2-1

They ended up getting in trouble. Think Browns was one of the teams.

We are just under the fringe of a weather advisory this morning.

“Freezing rain”

Since you posted I would like to give a shout out to the NAM.  It did fairly well in spotting the enhanced cold you guys would have this AM.  I did not look at every model but the Nam gets bashed enough that it deserves kudos when earned.

I am surprised there are many unvaxxed players left.  I know the majority of PA is unvaxxed (land wise, population wise the city centers are highly vaxxed) but thought most sports players went with it. 

 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are just a few big picture thoughts on Winter, when just comparing to last year.

Last year we had 1 really good Winter storm on December 16th that brought near 1 foot of snow in the Harrisburg area and near 2 feet in northern PA. 
We didn’t have any snow before the 12/16 storm and then nothing more than a car topper in January until the very last day of the month. We then had our second big storm on 1/31 into 2/1 that brought another 1 foot of snow to many in the LSV, while northeast PA got closer to 20 inches.

The pattern last year looked great at times, but December we cashed in on 1 great storm. The pattern last January looked good as well, but no storms got their act together until the end on the month when we cashed in with our 2nd good storm.

Then in February we had 3 or 4 more Advisory level events that combined to give our last foot of snow. Then in March, there was nothing again.

Last year the snow all added up to 36 inches, which is 5 inches above normal at MDT. 2 good storms gave us 67% of our seasonal snow last season.

My point is, we just need to be patient. We will have our chances. Hopefully we have a sustained run with several chances? Maybe we just get 1 or 2 good storms? Every Winter is different in how we get our snow. Let’s see how it plays out this year.

In the last 10 days someone posted last winter was bad and I told them to prepare to be corrected...but you never did?!  LOL 

[canderson]

If it were 20 degrees colder a loooooot of people would be pissed today with this non event. I have .06” and it looks like that’s it lol 

[Cashtown_Coop]

15 minutes ago, canderson said:

If it were 20 degrees colder a loooooot of people would be pissed today with this non event. I have .06” and it looks like that’s it lol 

Writing was on the wall 3 days ago that the moisture was going to miss us.  0.14” this morn.   With ratios that’s 2” 

[Blizzard of 93]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

In the last 10 days someone posted last winter was bad and I told them to prepare to be corrected...but you never did?!  LOL 

Lol, thanks.

Storms that bring a widespread 1 to 2 feet of snow in PA are rare. We historically get maybe get 1 of those type of storms every 5 years or so on average. We had 2 of these storms last year. This fact made it a good Winter in my book.

[paweather]

Well I assume from Blizz the GFS has move towards the EURO for this upcoming week not the wintry pattern look. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Well I assume from Blizz the GFS has move towards the EURO for this upcoming week not the wintry pattern look. 

Unfortunately yes, but still time to go. We might need to keep waiting. The ensembles still look great in week 2 and beyond with blocking and the trough out West beginning to slowly get on the move.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Well I assume from Blizz the GFS has move towards the EURO for this upcoming week not the wintry pattern look. 

You know the drill.  January will be 'rockin is the mantra.  Lol

[paweather]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Unfortunately yes, but still time to go. We might need to keep waiting. The ensembles still look great in week 2 and beyond with blocking and the trough out West beginning to slowly get on the move.

Agreed. This waiting is just killing me but I guess we wait that is all we can do. It is the only weather we got.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are 2 snapshots of the 6z GEFS showing the pattern progression over the next 2 weeks.

Here is the look on Christmas and then the look on day 16 just after New Year’s weekend.

If this happens as depicted, we lose the southeast ridge and see the trough extend to the east.

The west based -NAO blocking up top looks very good as well.

This could be a very good period for us as we head towards New Year’s weekend.

[Blizzard of 93]

The best part is that the Euro & Canadian ensembles both agree with the GEFS with the pattern look for New Year’s weekend.

 

[TimB]

@Blizzard of 93, I really hope you’re right. A short winter would largely be made up for with a really good pattern. But by day 13, MDT is staring down the barrel of a second consecutive year where 0.2” or more of snowfall hasn’t fallen on 311 days in a row, which has only happened one other year in 130+ years of recorded history.

[Atomixwx]

Cold. ****ing. Rain in Clearfield today. Merry Christmas.

[Blizzard of 93]

38 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

@Blizzard of 93, I really hope you’re right. A short winter would largely be made up for with a really good pattern. But by day 13, MDT is staring down the barrel of a second consecutive year where 0.2” or more of snowfall hasn’t fallen on 311 days in a row, which has only happened one other year in 130+ years of recorded history.

The main reason for the last 2 years is because of no March or April snow. The non-Winter of 19-20 had historically low snow the whole season. Last year we had snow in Dec., Jan. & Feb., but nothing in March- but above normal total for the whole season.

In recent history, we had good March snow in 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019, so I’m not concerned about last 2 years not producing March snow, which really skews that chart that you posted.
It’s interesting and thanks for posting it, but I don’t think we can draw any conclusions.

[TimB]

9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The main reason for the last 2 years is because of no March or April snow. The non-Winter of 19-20 had historically low snow the whole season. Last year we had snow in Dec., Jan. & Feb., but nothing in March- but above normal total for the whole season.

In recent history, we had good March snow in 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019, so I’m not concerned about last 2 years not producing March snow, which really skews that chart that you posted.
It’s interesting and thanks for posting it, but I don’t think we can draw any conclusions.

The only conclusion I’m drawing here is purely mathematical, and that is (3/130)^2 = approximately 1 in 2,000. 

[TimB]

But beyond that, it’s frustrating. First the pattern was changing the week before Christmas, then right around Christmas, then right after Christmas, but now we’re on the precipice of losing New Year’s too. That said, I love what things are showing after New Year’s, but I just can’t trust any of that. But all will be forgiven between me and the weather gods if it happens. 
 

I won’t go and quote the posts from around this time in 2019 (I wasn’t here then), but that thread is an interesting read and, without the timestamps, I’d think it was from this month. All sorts of hope for January and we all know how that turned out.

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

Cold. ****ing. Rain in Clearfield today. Merry Christmas.

45 and brightening here. About to go weed - who’d thought we would have (and need) perfect weeding weather in late December? 

[paweather]

39 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

But beyond that, it’s frustrating. First the pattern was changing the week before Christmas, then right around Christmas, then right after Christmas, but now we’re on the precipice of losing New Year’s too. That said, I love what things are showing after New Year’s, but I just can’t trust any of that. But all will be forgiven between me and the weather gods if it happens. 
 

I won’t go and quote the posts from around this time in 2019 (I wasn’t here then), but that thread is an interesting read and, without the timestamps, I’d think it was from this month. All sorts of hope for January and we all know how that turned out.

I think your right delay delay delay it looks good one day until the next day. It sucks

[Superstorm]

I always saw the winter pattern for us coming after Christmas. I think some were hoping for white Christmas.

Until MJO is solidly in phase 8, don’t by into any rush to cold and snow.


.

[Atomixwx]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

But beyond that, it’s frustrating. First the pattern was changing the week before Christmas, then right around Christmas, then right after Christmas, but now we’re on the precipice of losing New Year’s too. That said, I love what things are showing after New Year’s, but I just can’t trust any of that. But all will be forgiven between me and the weather gods if it happens. 
 

I won’t go and quote the posts from around this time in 2019 (I wasn’t here then), but that thread is an interesting read and, without the timestamps, I’d think it was from this month. All sorts of hope for January and we all know how that turned out.

This is why I posted about losing NY and then MLK and going holiday to holiday until we were bitching about cold rains in June lol

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z GFS showed a couple of Winter weather opportunities before New Year’s.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Then the 12z GFS had another Winter weather chance just after NewYear’s.

Yes, I know….Op run at long range…. But it’s certainly possible with the pattern change that’s underway.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Then the 12z GFS had another Winter weather chance just after NewYear’s.

Yes, I know….Op run at long range…. But it’s certainly possible with the pattern change that’s underway.

 

I also like seeing the massive 1050+ Highs that are showing up in Canada & the northern US.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z Euro & Canadian ensembles still show the trough extending coast to coast. West based -NAO looks impressive for ensemble runs at 2 week range.

We are still heading in a good direction for Winter weather chances.

 

[Voyager]

I really need to go visit my mom...for about three months. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I really need to go visit my mom...for about three months. 

Heatmiser, we have not had much winter yet :-)