rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nws doesn't seem impressed. Again...the bitter cold airmass will generate some light lake snows south of Lake Ontario with very minimal accumulations. The snow will be less able to accum to any degree being in the form of needles and thin plates rather than fluffy dendrites. They also mention dry air. Which is always a problem for us with N winds. These can surprise tho. 2-4”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Anyone think gravity waves are going to play a role in the banding? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 That looks like ip to me showing up on RGEM. You can see warm tongue in that area at h7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Is that snow or sleet. Color scheme sucks between snow and sleet I can’t make out their color scheme either. I’m color blind so all those salmons, pinks and purples look similar. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Tropical tidbits shows this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: That looks like ip to me showing up on RGEM. You can see warm tongue in that area at h7 Soundings look supportive of snow. Color scheme looks like sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: Tropical tidbits shows this. That’s better lol. Sounding look all snow for roc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: Soundings look supportive of snow. Color scheme looks like sleet Color scheme looks backwards actually... the scale shows darker to lighter pinkpurple for lighter to heavier snow but it literally looks backwards... lol I'll be in your neck of the woods this weekend, maybe we get some of that band ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 44 minutes ago, Syrmax said: HeWhoShallNotBeNamed is usually pretty good with snowstorm forecasts and discusssions. I love it when he gets emotional and digs into a position that busts. Darth Bond? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Last time Rochester had over a foot (in 24 hrs) was March 14, 2017. According to a local met. Wow. I knew it had been a while but damn!!!! That is 5 years!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: That looks like ip to me showing up on RGEM. You can see warm tongue in that area at h7 That's not IP over WNY, maybe around Syracuse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I can’t pull soundings from NAM or RGEM on Tidbits. I can pull from GFS. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Never seen one modeled that heavy in western ny. Whats the rate in that 2 3 a hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, vortmax said: That's heavy-ass snow. You can see the sleet just north of the Frzr layer. 11 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Snow because it’s nested within the last color blue in the snow scale. Except stupid Sizzlecuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, tim123 said: Never seen one modeled that heavy in western ny. Whats the rate in that 2 3 a hour? That seems reasonable. Seems like a long time since I've seen 3"/hr rates synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, vortmax said: That's heavy-ass snow. You can see the sleet just north of the Frzr layer. It's sleet over buffalo. I posted about this earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 44 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Right now I would say rochester area has best shot at 15"+ as they get the northerly to northeasterly flow off Ontario to enhance snowfall. This is assuming no other adjustments are made in tracks Not sure you'll see much lake enhancement during the storm.. maybe at the very end.... ... The " No pulse recorded band" you see depicted on the models, is basically basically an occluded front from the old primary, where the deformation band forms....ie...mid levels... You won't have a ton of instability at the lowest levels with 850 millibar temperatures only -4 at best... Until we can sample that kicker impulse over the Pacific better, (like tonight and tomorrow's runs), we could potentially see some significant changes, especially in the mid level set up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Except stupid Sizzlecuse Every time. It’s gotta be getting funny at this point. I’m sorry Matt!! Lol. I still think Syracuse does fine. 10”+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Tt shows snow but 850s are +0C..Both the algorithm and the model sucks, wouldn't worry about it to much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: They also mention dry air. Which is always a problem for us with N winds. These can surprise tho. 2-4”? Looks about right according to the pros.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Every time. It’s gotta be getting funny at this point. I’m sorry Matt!! Lol. I still think Syracuse does fine. 10”+ I'm telling you...there is always some warmth here at some level anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: Not sure you'll see much lake enhancement during the storm.. maybe at the very end.... ... The " No pulse recorded band" you see depicted on the models, is basically basically an occluded front from the old primary, where the deformation band forms....ie...mid levels... You won't have a ton of instability at the lowest levels with 850 millibar temperatures only -4 at best... Until we can sample that kicker impulse over the Pacific better, (like tonight and tomorrow's runs), we could potentially see some significant changes, especially in the mid level set up. I saw a piece about this recently. Apparently the hurricane hunters have been sampling it. They happen to be doing research in the pacific and are doing run throughs. I have no idea how accurate this is but the poster acted certain that this was already happening and that the info was being absorbed into the models. Obviously, having the parts on shore will be best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Tt shows snow but 850s are +0C..Both the algorithm and the model sucks, wouldn't worry about it to much lol Its orange on wxbell. And the 850 t on the sound is above freezing. I like the rdps a great deal as a model but this is far outside its normal range. I like to use it more like the NAM...mostly only within 48 h. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Its orange on wxbell. And the 850 t on the sound is above freezing. I like the rdps a great deal as a model but this is far outside its normal range. I like to use it more like the NAM...mostly only within 48 h. Could dynamic cooling help? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Could dynamic cooling help? Yes for sure. If a similar representation happens I'd think it would be snow. I think the rdps is overdoing the effect of downsloping off the Apps. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12z NAM probably gonna be noticeably west this run. That northern stream piece is really strong and digging in this run. Hopefully overdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Yes for sure. If a similar representation happens I'd think it would be snow. I think the rdps is overdoing the effect of downsloping off the Apps. Because that would burn. To be on the NW side like that and get sleet at the height. Oh boy. There’d be jumpers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z NAM probably gonna be noticeably west this run. That northern stream piece is really strong and digging in this run. Hopefully overdone. Way west probably. N/S digging for China Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Because that would burn. To be on the NW side like that and get sleet at the height. Oh boy. There’d be jumpers. I’d be one. We NEVER get tracks like this for Pittsburgh. It is almost ideal…and if it mixes it will be painful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The kicker wave will be key...look at the changes already... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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