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Widespread Snow Potential January 16th to January 18th


sferic
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26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Nws doesn't seem impressed. 

 

Again...the bitter cold
airmass will generate some light lake snows south of Lake Ontario
with very minimal accumulations. The snow will be less able to accum
to any degree being in the form of needles and thin plates rather
than fluffy dendrites.

They also mention dry air. Which is always a problem for us with N winds. These can surprise tho. 2-4”?

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Soundings look supportive of snow. Color scheme looks like sleet

Color scheme looks backwards actually... the scale shows darker to lighter pinkpurple for lighter to heavier snow but it literally looks backwards... lol

I'll be in your neck of the woods this weekend, maybe we get some of that band ???:D

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44 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Right now I would say rochester area has best shot at 15"+ as they get the northerly to northeasterly flow off Ontario to enhance snowfall. This is assuming no other adjustments are made in tracks 

 Not sure you'll see much lake enhancement during the storm.. maybe at the very end....

...

The " No pulse recorded band"  you see depicted on the models, is basically basically an occluded front from the old primary, where the deformation band forms....ie...mid levels...

 You won't have a ton of instability at the lowest levels with 850 millibar temperatures only -4 at best...

 Until we can sample that kicker impulse over the Pacific better, (like tonight and tomorrow's runs), we could potentially see some significant changes, especially in the mid level set up.

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1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 Not sure you'll see much lake enhancement during the storm.. maybe at the very end....

...

The " No pulse recorded band"  you see depicted on the models, is basically basically an occluded front from the old primary, where the deformation band forms....ie...mid levels...

 You won't have a ton of instability at the lowest levels with 850 millibar temperatures only -4 at best...

 Until we can sample that kicker impulse over the Pacific better, (like tonight and tomorrow's runs), we could potentially see some significant changes, especially in the mid level set up.

I saw a piece about this recently. Apparently the hurricane hunters have been sampling it. They happen to be doing research in the pacific and are doing run throughs. 
I have no idea how accurate this is but the poster acted certain that this was already happening and that the info was being absorbed into the models. Obviously, having the parts on shore will be best. 

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Tt shows snow but 850s are +0C..Both the algorithm and the model sucks, wouldn't worry about it to much lol

rgem_T850_neus_76 (1).png

Its orange on wxbell. And the 850 t on the sound is above freezing. I like the rdps a great deal as a model but this is far outside its normal range. I like to use it more like the NAM...mostly only within 48 h. 

 

rgem-all-ontario-instant_ptype_3hr-2410000.png

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Because that would burn. To be on the NW side like that and get sleet at the height. Oh boy. There’d be jumpers. 

I’d be one. We NEVER get tracks like this for Pittsburgh. It is almost ideal…and if it mixes it will be painful 

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