Uncle Nasty Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 MRX is officially on crack or second shift has taken over. They raised my totals up to 2” an hour ago and put me under a WWA. Now they have lowered my totals to 1/2” to 1”. .Might be the wrong graph they showed. Just guessing.Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, *Flash* said: 21z HRRR coming in a bit juicer. Verbatim, not a bad statewide hit. Anyone got pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 @Matthew70 Keep in mind this is only up through tomorrow AM: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Not sure what to think at the old homestead. So many models spitting out so many different scenarios. Look what the Weather Channel forecast gave us for tomorrow (Sunday). Snow? What snow?Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Will be watching the temps hope they are come in colder because I’ve seen this movie before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xAllVolsx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: Not sure what to think at the old homestead. So many models spitting out so many different scenarios. Look what the Weather Channel forecast gave us for tomorrow (Sunday). Snow? What snow? Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk They change for Lawrence County every hour. Went from 3-5 inches this morning, 1-3 inches around lunch, and now under a winter storm warning with the low only getting to 36 with possible 1 inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 [mention=15012]Matthew70[/mention] Keep in mind this is only up through tomorrow AM: Low pressure goes due north 150 miles in the last two time frames. Nothing would surprise me with this system but that doesn’t seem realistic without some blocking it seems. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Low pressure goes due north 150 miles in the last two time frames. Nothing would surprise me with this system but that doesn’t seem realistic without some blocking it seems. . Thermals seem way off of what kinda precip is falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Low pressure goes due north 150 miles in the last two time frames. Nothing would surprise me with this system but that doesn’t seem realistic without some blocking it seems. . I don’t think I’ve ever seen a low pressure do these kind of movements that the models are spitting out. I mean, a 2 frame increment is 2hrs in real time. So, the low is going to move 150mi due north in 2hrs time only to transfer again later? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a low pressure transfer twice in the same storm. However, that’s what these models are implying. I will have to see it to believe it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Thermals seem way off of what kinda precip is falling.I know 540 line ain’t the guaranteed R/S line but it barely makes it NW of Knoxville, right on the Knox Co Anderson Co line. If temps are an issue I think it would be very shallow and below 3k feet. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 NBM must rely heavily on the HRRR. The 21Z ends up looking almost exactly like MRX’s call map. No bueno for the valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The HRRR is pretty terrible outside of a few hours in my experience. I find the NAM way more reliable these days. It was pretty spot on for the last storm, temps and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 27 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: Not sure what to think at the old homestead. So many models spitting out so many different scenarios. Look what the Weather Channel forecast gave us for tomorrow (Sunday). Snow? What snow? Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk Is that Cantore? His face sums up up that forecast so well. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 That was the very end of that HRRR run too, so if it had been the 0z run, it might have looked better in places in East TN. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Where the heck is @Carvers Gaphe usually eats these damn things lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Is that Cantore? His face sums up up that forecast so well. “Americans most trusted weather network”. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, PowellVolz said: “Americans most trusted weather network” . That might get me to watch the weather channel again. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I bet John will get hammered and like Nashville said some possible thundersnow possibly,along the lower flank of the trowel along the upslopes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kasper said: Where the heck is @Carvers Gaphe usually eats these damn things lol Not recently, he read that these things are high in bust potential. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 20 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: NBM must rely heavily on the HRRR. The 21Z ends up looking almost exactly like MRX’s call map. No bueno for the valley. HRRR has been giving me near foot totals here in Marshall county, yet the NBM is showing less than an inch. I have no idea what it's blending, but it's not any of the models I'm watching. The fv3 and see of the SREF family is really low, maybe that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here'a a weird HRRR theory, what if it it is just got some parameter that automatically raises the temp when there's daylight: I don't know why else it would randomly decide to change some areas over to rain or mix? Does it think the downsloping is increasing? Sound from over my area at the end of that run: Look how small that boundary layer warmth is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 HRRR still ticking flatter (positive tilt) each run. Likely a result of the ULL diving further South. the more ticks we get like this the better it will get for Eastern areas. I don't buy the HRRR mixing issues right now. It is trending colder by the hour. There will be mixing but I don't think it will be quite as widespread as hrrr shows 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, Coach B said: HRRR has been giving me near foot totals here in Marshall county, yet the NBM is showing less than an inch. I have no idea what it's blending, but it's not any of the models I'm watching. The fv3 and see of the SREF family is really low, maybe that's it. It uses every OP, and Ens...40+ models plus real time obs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Shocker0 said: Monterey or Jamestown are usually better than Crossville. Or NW Cumberland County is good but no hotels here other than a campground on Exit 311 Agreed. You and I are much higher elevation-wise than downtown Crossville.,. Have gotten 8 inches before and driven to town where they had maybe an inch and a half 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here'a a weird HRRR theory, what if it it is just got some parameter that automatically raises the temp when there's daylight: I don't know why else it would randomly decide to change some areas over to rain or mix? Does it think the downsloping is increasing? Sound from over my area at the end of that run: Look how small that boundary layer warmth is. I’ll be extremely impressed with the mods if they can sniff out the minor details and gets the ptype right. What’s disheartening is 90% of the time this would be an ideal setup for a state wide storm but somehow we have found a path to the 10 percentile. . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, PowellVolz said: What’s disheartening is 90% of the time this would be an ideal setup for a state wide storm but somehow we have found a path to the 10 percentile. Agreed. I was just thinking I'm probably too worked up over random runs of the HRRR, but it has sniffed out my temp problems pretty well this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 For the NBM: 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said: Agreed. You and I are much higher elevation-wise than downtown Crossville.,. Have gotten 8 inches before and driven to town where they had maybe an inch and a half Yep, we benefit from being 150-200ft higher than town, plus further Northwest closer to the edge of the Plateau so the storms smack into us first and stick around longer. I remember in January 2016 we got around 10" with 2ft drifts in our part of the county while town ended up with 2-4" because they had mixing issues until late in the afternoon while it switched to snow here several hours earlier. I could see tomorrow play out like that, but I can also seeing it be a bust everywhere. Hopefully it isn't though, but I'm not getting my hopes up lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Current conditions! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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