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Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 9-11 Lake Effect Snow Event


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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Good thing is though, the rain last night added some meat to it, so that will help 

Yeah, but there are blades poking through in some areas (as in a some places lost complete snowpack yesterday.) So in our next thaw, it will definitely be patchy in area. Still, in general, a 2 to 4 inch pack. Silly..but better than most are doing right now.

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Oh geez lol They actually increased totals..It better snow like 5" an hour this afternoon:lol:

 

Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow before 2pm. High near 21. West wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow before 11pm, then snow showers likely, mainly between 11pm and midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around -5. Wind chill values as low as -15. North wind 8 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That looks to robust to me for your area. I would make the 24-30 in the upslope territory by lewis,jeff,oswego counties meet. 

 Well this is a perfect setup to get some insane rates like 6...7...8" per hour.... For them to potentially allude to that is remarkable, and noted....

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3 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

2A4EFD2A-95F3-4592-9F38-7976AF4690C7.thumb.png.dcdd0bd2fa8e480016cdfb5f09315491.pngLook at the intensity of the band just north of you around Perth. It’s only about 3-4 miles wide but is probably producing 1-2 inches per hour. I assume you’re south of that. Just like me it’s very frustrating to be a spectator in a front row seat.

Yeah, was over my house then drifted north. Drove thru it though... pictures didn't do it justice.

Resized_20220110_064056.jpeg

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Moderate to heavy lake snows remain locked in place across Oswego
county late this morning...`behaving` quite well with the forecast.
While the activity has become a little cellular this morning...feel
that with a stronger upstream connection this afternoon...the band
will consolidate a bit and push north by miles or so. This is where
the RGEM has been anchoring it for several days now...and as no
surprise...is where the new 12z run of the NAM takes it.
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Just now, wolfie09 said:
Moderate to heavy lake snows remain locked in place across Oswego
county late this morning...`behaving` quite well with the forecast.
While the activity has become a little cellular this morning...feel
that with a stronger upstream connection this afternoon...the band
will consolidate a bit and push north by miles or so. This is where
the RGEM has been anchoring it for several days now...and as no
surprise...is where the new 12z run of the NAM takes it.

RGEM is king. No doubt

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12 minutes ago, sferic said:

About 1.5 inches OTG in Cicero; hope to add a few more in the next 18 to 24 hours but not pining my hopes on that.

 

I was envisioning  all day S+ today, but no worries, they'll be other times

 

Just give me 4 inches later and I'll be okay!

This is what usually happens with strong Lake Events with West or WNW flow. We get a bit up front as it's starting...and at the tail end...but the bulk of the event stays north of here until a s/w or front pushes it south. And if it moves quickly it blows thru with 1-4" and falls off the lake while transitioning to NW flow multibands, where we might get another inch or two.  

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I think the area that will JP will be just south of here, parish, mexico, maple view etc..The band will go through that area late this evening once again..I still yet to see much northern movement which kbgm alluded to..

Screenshot_20220110-103350.png

Screenshot_20220110-103409.png

Wasn’t it Parrish and Mexico about a decade ago that got absolutely demolished to the tune of over 100” over like a 3 day period?

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I think the area that will JP will be just south of here, parish, mexico, maple view etc..The band will go through that area late this evening once again..I still yet to see much northern movement which kbgm alluded to..

Screenshot_20220110-103350.png

Screenshot_20220110-103409.png

Whatever town is just northeast of that lake has been getting pounded for a few hours already

WUNIDS_map?num=20&type=N0Q&mapx=400&mapy

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42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:
Moderate to heavy lake snows remain locked in place across Oswego
county late this morning...`behaving` quite well with the forecast.
While the activity has become a little cellular this morning...feel
that with a stronger upstream connection this afternoon...the band
will consolidate a bit and push north by miles or so. This is where
the RGEM has been anchoring it for several days now...and as no
surprise...is where the new 12z run of the NAM takes it.

The NAM…the black sheep of all models 

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7 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

2007....

 

 

Hard to believe it was that long ago. 

I had to drive to Nine Mile Point thru that week long storm every day for work.  Was a circus.  One day a couple of us stopped to rescue a stranded coworker.  Got a toofless person from a nearby trailer park to go get a chain and pull him out after digging in 2-3"/hr snow rates got us nowhere.  Bless his kind heart.   Never made it in that day, turned around and headed back to the Sunny Sizzle...

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