Tracking Jan 7 coastal storm. Lingering compression/flow velocity has not lent to consensus, but it seems at 30 hours out.. finally?

[Henry's Weather]

42 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Check GFS and NAM again.

GFS 24 hr precip from 12z Thursday:

Wide swath of .1 to .15 northwest for my region, metro west.

24 hr precip from 12z Friday

Worcester east gets .05 to .1

You are technically correct about a pedantic detail from the most progressive piece of guidance. Excuse me that I didn't differentiate between .1-.15 inches of crappy low-res QPF output from .05-.1 inches of it.

 

NAM 12km before the storm: Metrowest has, let's say, .05 inches of antecedent precip.

NAM accumulated QPF up until 12z Friday: metrowest has .2

NAM accumulated QPF by 18z: metrowest has .3

Congrats. Guess what all other guidance has though?

NAM 3km antecendent: .2-.3 for metrowest

NAM 3km total up until 12z Friday: .5 for metrowest

NAM 3km total after: .75+

 

RGEM antecendent: .2-.3

RGEM total before 12z: .4

RGEM total after: .75-1, exceeding 1 in spots.

 

EC 24 hour accum before: .1-.2

EC 24 hr accum after: .3

 

Don't accuse me of not being able to read a map, saying I can't think for myself because of twitter meteorologists. Laughable.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

I'll add that H85 is 850mb....it's not someone fat-fingering H5 (usually, lol)

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We gonna get the Messenger

?

Oh man’ the complaints on here would be insufferable.  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Oh man’ the complaints on here would be insufferable.  

You are getting to happy hour now too.............lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Oh man’ the complaints on here would be insufferable.  

Nah, I'm not that invested in 4"

[Ericjcrash]

1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

Why are we bitching so hard? It looks like we'll get at least a moderate event, and we haven't had basically anything yet... Why so attached to the romantic idea of a bombing coastal, crawling and doing loop-de-loops south of Montauk? Not every storm has to be +3 sd intense. Just enjoy the several inches and be glad that it's snowing in the daytime.

It's early, but definitely a post of the year candidate.

[PhineasC]

Happy hour NAM will save the day. Have faith. 

[ORH_wxman]

Might be some bridge-jumping this run....it looks even flatter than the clunker 12z solution.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah, I'm not that invested in 4"

We're in the minority.  Many seem ready to lose their shit.

[Greg]

23 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

GFS 24 hr precip from 12z Thursday:

Wide swath of .1 to .15 northwest for my region, metro west.

24 hr precip from 12z Friday

Worcester east gets .05 to .1

You are technically correct about a pedantic detail from the most progressive piece of guidance. Excuse me that I didn't differentiate between .1-.15 inches of crappy low-res QPF output from .05-.1 inches of it.

 

NAM 12km before the storm: Metrowest has, let's say, .05 inches of antecedent precip.

NAM accumulated QPF up until 12z Friday: metrowest has .2

NAM accumulated QPF by 18z: metrowest has .3

Congrats. Guess what all other guidance has though?

NAM 3km antecendent: .2-.3 for metrowest

NAM 3km total up until 12z Friday: .5 for metrowest

NAM 3km total after: .75+

 

RGEM antecendent: .2-.3

RGEM total before 12z: .4

RGEM total after: .75-1, exceeding 1 in spots.

 

EC 24 hour accum before: .1-.2

EC 24 hr accum after: .3

 

Don't accuse me of not being able to read a map, saying I can't think for myself because of twitter meteorologists. Laughable.

 

 

I'll take the NAM 3KM for 400 please.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might be some bridge-jumping this run....it looks even flatter than the clunker 12z solution.

I had my melt when I realized the 6-12" ship had sailed.

I'm shifting to the long range lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

We're in the minority.  Many seem ready to lose their shit.

I almost prefer nothing instead of an inch or two because I’m enjoying the bare ground for a number of reasons.
 I mean, I’m totally on board with snow if there’s enough for me and the kid to ski or sled on. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I almost prefer nothing instead of an inch or two because I’m enjoying the bare ground for a number of reasons.
 I mean, I’m totally on board with snow if there’s enough for me and the kid to ski or sled on. 

welcome aboard

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I almost prefer nothing instead of an inch or two because I’m enjoying the bare ground for a number of reasons.
 I mean, I’m totally on board with snow if there’s enough for me and the kid to ski or sled on. 

I got one last rake in on Monday after the last bit of snow had melted.

[CoastalWx]

S/W is really consolidated. It might not be too bad.

[ORH_wxman]

The vortmax is actually a bit more potent this run, so its going to try and gain back here late in the game.

[Baroclinic Zone]

It's making an 18-wheeler right turn to the left.

[wxsniss]

I think this comes in better than 12z

Through 36h, vort is more consolidated, looks more similar to 12z RGEM than 12z NAM

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

S/W is really consolidated. It might not be too bad.

Its fighting off the convection an is a tic or so west @hr39

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, wxsniss said:

I think this comes in better than 12z

Through 36h, vort is more consolidated, looks more similar to 12z RGEM than 12z NAM

Yea, just noticing that.

Cool

[ORH_wxman]

It's def better than 12z by 39 hours...the stronger vortmax is offsetting the earlier trend of lower heights over us. It's pulling the system back in closer to the shortwave.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Vort looks a bit more negatively tilted, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's def better than 12z by 39 hours...the stronger vortmax is offsetting the earlier trend of lower heights over us. It's pulling the system back in closer to the shortwave.

We're getting that curl.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Still a hot mess on the surface though, verbatim

[ineedsnow]

still kind of meh here but that was really close.. still time to bring this back.. atleast at 0z tonight everything will be sampled and we might have a clear view either way

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We're getting that curl.

Yeah it's trying, biut not quite enough this run to deliver the real goodies....still a better look at least than 12z. Most of my hope in this system is due to the strong vortmax....that as we get closer and closer, the model guidance will be focusing more of the forcing along the track of that vortmax and not to the east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Still a hot mess on the surface though, verbatim

Not sure how this doesn't end up better at the surface

[wxsniss]

Yeah I take this as a positive, better H5 evolution (stronger, more consolidated further west), even though surface is a head scratcher

[Henry's Weather]

3km coming in hot

[dryslot]

3k looks better then 12z as well.