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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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On 12/2/2022 at 9:54 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

Smells like La Niña to me 

I would imagine a triple dip La Niña would be very La Niña-ey. Plenty of time for it’s pattern to set into place.

I am down in Gainesville. I came to Florida to escape winter cold and though I didn’t go quite far enough south to ensure constant warmth, I do appreciate the long string of 77 degree days here. Longer days are great too. 
 

Not that I want to diminish any snow lovers on here who live up north in Georgia or anything.

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On 12/2/2022 at 2:55 PM, wncsnow said:

The Pacific is going to screw up the -NAO as it often does. 

 Here is the PNA for the seven strongest -NAOs since 1950 for Dec 1-15 along with the RDU temperature anomaly for the respective Dec 1-15:

1963: +0.8/-7

1977: -0.4/-5

1989: +0.9/-7

1995: 0.0/-2

2002: +1.2/-9

2009: +0.1/-2

2010: -1.0/-12


 Here in 2022, the GEFS is now forecasting a Dec 1-15 PNA of -1.1, which would be tied for second lowest since 1950, and an NAO of -0.9, which would be ~8th lowest NAO for Dec 1-15. So, 2022's -PNA/-NAO for Dec 1-15 is actually most similar to 2010, which despite a strong -PNA was the coldest Dec 1-15 at RDU of the strong -NAO group! It is the only Dec 1-15 similar to 2022. Thus as mentioned earlier, this makes for an unusually difficult forecast for the models as well as forecasters. Therefore, my confidence in model runs is lower than normal and I expect continued volatility in model runs.

 Currently, for the first half of this month, warmth is winning out over cold for the SE US on the recent model runs as runs have largely been turning warmer for the same period. This may be due to enhanced tropical convection in or near the Maritime Continent/Indian Ocean, which tends to act like a warm phased MJO regardless of what the official MJO phase is. This has often occurred in recent years due to record or near record warm SSTs there and has often resulted in model runs being cold biased. This often results in runs showing cold and then backing off in later runs for the same period as it gets closer. Also, La Niña in general favors a stronger SER (southeast ridge) than other ENSO.
 

 Whereas La Niña isn't just going to disappear, the enhanced tropical convection that I mentioned can change. I suspect that IF a -NAO/-AO regime were to hold, the best chance for SE cold to take hold for a several week period would be if that enhanced convection were to diminish and possibly allow a +PNA to become dominant. The GEFS is saying to look for a slow moving low amp/inside COD MJO on the left side of the circle to possibly occur starting around Dec 17th. Research has shown that especially during and near midwinter that a slow moving low amp MJO just outside to inside the left side of the COD (especially rotating from 7 to 8 to 1 to 2) has on average been the coldest MJO for the SE US. IF this occurs, IF the -NAO/-AO were to still be around, and IF that convection were to diminish, I'd be looking out for a +PNA to dominate along with a cold 2nd half of this month. Lots of IFs though. So, this isn't a prediction.

(Sorry for the big font, but I didn't do that on purpose. I wasn't able to change it using my phone.)

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 Further to the above, I just saw the 12Z EPS and it is I believe easily the coldest run in the SE of any recent run for any 11-15 day period. It is significantly colder than any run of the last few days for sure. At face value, it is hard to beat this run if you like cold. Linking this to my post above, this is the kind of thing that is quite possible with an MJO forecast like what the GEFS has.

 But the EPS and other models have been too cold during earlier runs for the 11-15 day periods. As I said, I suspect high levels of tropical convection in the MC/IO are at least partial culprits. If that convection were to diminish, then that might reduce the tendency of models to be too cold in the SE and thus allow for cold similar to the 12Z EPS' 11-15 to actually happen. The timing will be crucial to be able to take advantage of the progged cold favoring MJO should it really end up as the GEFS has.

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 The end of the 0Z Euro fwiw is by a good margin the coldest in the SE US at 850 mb for any run yet this season. The 240 hour is absolutely frigid at 850 mb with 850 mb temperature anomalies a whopping 10-15 C (18-27 F) colder than normal! I don't have 2m temps yet. Again, fwiw that far out. Runs like this for day 10 don't tell me what's likely or anything close to likely for day 10. They just tell me the kind of thing that potentially can happen, I.e., a small chance for something similar in day 10, especially considering that models have been too cold.

 Edit: Although not as cold in the 11-15 in the SE as the coldest yet prior run because the 500 mb trough axis is a bit further west, the mean 0Z EPS is still chilly with a +PNA forming. Moreover, with the trough axis near the Mississippi River instead of the SE, this run is more moist and includes a few members with Miller A Gulf lows moving ENE at the bottom of the cold air. I don't have access to mean snowfall or individual members' snowfall, but I bet a couple of members have snow around the end of the run.

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9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The 12z GFS missed the memo 

From what I've been reading that the gfs just had an update but it's verification scores are lower than the old gfs. I think that explains some big swings in model run to model run. Not sure about the gfs ensembles though.  Im sticking with the Euro currently. 

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 If you want to know how the 14 day model consensus (mainly GEFS and EPS runs) forecast for the E US is trending from day to day, especially in late fall and winter, a great clue more often than not is the natural gas (NG) market. If warmer/colder than the previous trading day (M-F), it will often be down/up. Currently, it is down a whopping 10% vs Friday's close! Also, it is down an amazing 22% just since the high of the Thursday session, which is only two trading days ago!

 So, the NG market is telling us that the models have been adjusting much warmer in early to mid December in the E US vs what they showed just 4-5 days ago meaning they've been strongly cold biased. I believe that this cold bias (models being much too cold) is probably mainly the result of intense convection in and near the Maritime Continent and Indian Ocean leading to a warmer pattern vs where the official MJO is. It thus acts like a warm MJO phase for the SE US. The models don't handle this well and thus it has resulted in a cold bias on many occasions over recent years. The intense convection has often been the result of (near) record warmth in that area. For this reason and as long as this too cold trend in the models continues, it is best to be more wary about cold runs than warm runs of models. At some point, this trend will cease and cold will start verifying better. But when?

 Current NG prices:

https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas-historical-data

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 The 12Z EPS is still another EPS run establishing a +PNA around 12/16-17. So, it has been persistent with this for several days. We'll see whether or not the model will finally be right and the pattern actually change to cold dominated around then. The PNA is forecasted to rise to neutral to possibly a slight positive then while a -NAO per the GEFS at least is forecasted to then be getting reestablished along with a -AO. The MJO per GEFS is forecasted to possibly then be headed toward low amplitude/inside COD on left side, which in combo with a -AO/-NAO/neutral to low amp +PNA would typically be cold in the SE in mid to late December. We'll see.

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I predict Bastadi’s mega cold snap to be a 2-3 day stretch of below normal temps, proceeded and followed by near normal to above normal. The Pacific is relentless (la Niña) and it looks like the blocking from -NAO trends to be more neutral by mid month. This looks like a transient pattern shaping up to me, not a “pattern shift” that would lead to extended cold and snow chances in the south. GEFS and EPS are starting to meet in the middle

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Yep the "pattern change" keeps getting delayed over and over again on the EPS. It was December 10- then the 13th, now it may not be until the 19th and looks muted. I think the best chances for snow this winter may be later in the season in February or March. Not typical in a Nina but this one should be dying by then. 

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It’s generally never a good sign when I’m on about a 10 day streak of seeing a ton of Mets start their tweets with “delayed but not denied.” 
 

but as others have said, generally the teleconnections don’t look bad and perhaps that’s the only thing we should be looking at anyways. The gfs is drunk with the new upgrade and everything else seems to have too many wild swings to take seriously.  

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NG market down another 2-3% as of now (~25% down vs Thursday's high!):

https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas

 As previously mentioned, this market is often as good a barometer as any of temperature trends in the 14 day forecast in the E US as a whole. SE cold lovers generally want NG to rise on any day. The trend in the E half of the US and especially E 1/3 in the most recent EPS and GEFS run means often has the most effect though the operational GFS and especially Euro 6-10 can have significant short term effect. Thus, NG is telling me that milder trends since Thursday in the E US over the next two weeks are still not reversing as of this moment anyway. We'll see how the rest of the 12Z GEFS as well as the 12Z Euro suite affect NG over the next few hours. A deadcat bounce is due regardless of the wx outlook.

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

NG market down another 2-3% as of now (~25% down vs Thursday's high!):

https://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas

 As previously mentioned, this market is often as good a barometer as any of temperature trends in the 14 day forecast in the E US as a whole. SE cold lovers generally want NG to rise on any day. The trend in the E half of the US and especially E 1/3 in the most recent EPS and GEFS run means often has the most effect though the operational GFS and especially Euro 6-10 can have significant short term effect. Thus, NG is telling me that milder trends since Thursday in the E US over the next two weeks are still not reversing as of this moment anyway. We'll see how the rest of the 12Z GEFS as well as the 12Z Euro suite affect NG over the next few hours. A deadcat bounce is due regardless of the wx outlook.

If there’s a bright side to a warm winter, you wouldn’t be able to draw up a worse year for wall to wall cold with the crunch on the energy market right now. 

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1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

If there’s a bright side to a warm winter, you wouldn’t be able to draw up a worse year for wall to wall cold with the crunch on the energy market right now. 

 1. Agreed. With a cold E US December, NG would likely now be much more expensive! There are clear benefits to a mild winter.

2. Fwiw, a stronger +PNA coming out now on the 12Z GEFS in the 11-15.

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4 hours ago, Bevo said:

In all honesty, we've seen this movie too many times. The Pacific is going to likely wreck shop indefinitely. I don't see this winter as having great potential. A PAC behaving like a hyperactive hamster on a wheel has proven this time and again.

 

Hope I'm wrong.

I’ve missed you :wub: 

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Just now, Jonathan said:

Ninas gonna Nina!

This isn't just due to La Niña. It is also likely due to heavy convection in and near the MC, something that has been a factor for at least several years due partially to near record SSTs there.

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