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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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The first wave goes north on the 12z GFS and then the CAD kicks in but the 2nd impulse dries out and goes a bit north after that. Fantasy range hasn't come in yet. It does not have a winter storm for next weekend in this neck of the woods.

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9 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Explain?

Models are showing a total of like 36hrs(or less) of above 55-60(and cloudy) on Thursday/Friday before the front comes through and we're cold again... We've been cold for three straight weeks prior to that. I  don't think our ground temperatures are going to be scorching. 

Secondly, who cares if they are warm... it really has little effect on anything other than snow and  ice accumulation on pavement and potentially how long any ground accumulations hang around. Of the things to worry about with a winter storm/set up... ground temperatures are last on the list,(shouldn't even be on the list at all really). 

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I'll put it this way... if the models are showing you getting 6 inches of snow with surface temps in the upper 20's... are you going to say, "ah, forget it! the ground temps are warm from the previous warm weather! That snow will be melted off the roads and sunny spots within 2 days!" 

Maybe you do? I don't worry myself with something like that.

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Latest from WxSouth.

The period I'm particularly watching is  about February 10th  on to about the 20th. The timing could be off either way, but the confidence in this pattern type is high.  The Canadian and American models do build up the western ridge, just off the West Coast, to the point its the driver across North America (really the biggest  ridge anomaly in the Hemisphere this Winter). It does relax over the next week to 10 days, hence, our relaxation and warming trend in the Southeast. But similar to what happened in 2013-14 and 2014-15 Winters, it builds again, very, very strongly. That huge west ridge is a synoptic warning sign of sorts.  It indicates plenty of cold air dropping over the top of the ridge. This time, a split flow even shows up underneath, and there's not shortage of storm systems cruising across the Deep South, bringing precip from Texas to the Carolinas. In fact, the Southeast looks very active much of February with system after system moving through. Not all will be a Winter storm---but odds are  high one or more will be a hit in some areas, very far to the South.  I'll hit the pattern deeper in the blog later today with more model comparison and pattern recognition.  Enjoy the brief break later this week on moderating temps :)

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