TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Would imagine this means they’re considering upping ice totals… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 26 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: The frustrating part is the front makes decent progress, then gets hung up right before it passes through Allegheny county Thursday afternoon. Whew, thank goodness. The half-day hangup line had been right over me in Butler on models for the past 1.5 days, I was growing concerned. Realistically though, the models are all gridded, so we won't have 1km-by-1km outputs until we get closer to the event. 3km, 12km, 30km are all large grids that leave out a lot of details so that line definitely has some wavering that can't be displayed on the NAM or GFS. Edit: "Wavering" = Uncertainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Funny that we never jackpot on snow but looks like we are in it to jackpot on freezing rain. Hey, just because we don’t do snow well doesn’t mean we can’t do literally every other p-type very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Draw a line from City of Pittsburgh to Clarion, the further North / West you go will be rapidly increasing impacts. South and East of that line rapidly decreasing impacts. That's my take based on looking at all the 6z data / 12z NAM. Still almost 36 hours until we get into the part of the storm we are all interested in, so any minor adjustments one way or the other will have big influence on sensible weather. Slower / Less amped look of that wave is what we want, but the trends have been slightly in the opposite direction on the GFS / NAM so lots of stuff to track / analyze. The front really slows down as I mentioned before, and there is some warm nose influence as the freezing line even bumps NW a little bit. Looks like the counties NWS has highlighted in the watch currently is a good call although I could see an expansion eastward with advisories. Most counties currently in the watch would hit warning criteria based on freezing rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 What model is handling the current conditions the best as of now? Maybe that's the one we focus on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Idk my gut tells me the warm air does it usual thing and keep things more wet. I guess we have to watch for short term trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 From NWS Thursday Night Freezing rain and sleet, possibly mixed with snow before 11pm, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet between 11pm and midnight, then snow after midnight. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 22. North wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Gfs continues to show an absolutely brutal ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Gfs continues to show an absolutely brutal ice storm. Verbatim, the GFS is probably the worst case scenario from a practical (non-weenie) perspective. Enough ice to knock out the power, a bunch of snow and temperatures plunging well below zero Saturday morning. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Verbatim, the GFS is probably the worst case scenario from a practical (non-weenie) perspective. Enough ice to knock out the power, a bunch of snow and temperatures plunging well below zero Saturday morning. Brutal. Do you have a snow/ice/sleet output from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Do you have a snow/ice/sleet output from it 0.76” ice and 5.9” snow plus what looks like a couple inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 What an absolute nightmare to forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 0.76” ice and 5.9” snow plus what looks like a couple inches of sleet. Also do you have an onset time for frozen precip. I work tomorrow and am highly considering calling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Also do you have an onset time for frozen precip. I work tomorrow and am highly considering calling off. Do I? Does anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 From yesterday ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Also do you have an onset time for frozen precip. I work tomorrow and am highly considering calling off. It looks like at least on the GFS between 4pm - 7pm the front will be sliding across Allegheny county, NAM is more like 7pm - 10pm. GFS did tick slightly faster at 12z than 6z but still slower than 00z, we are really talking like 25-50 miles differences here which is probably just run to run noise but if you are on the eastern edge it makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I wouldn’t trust the RAP at this range but it did go from 1.4” of snow on its previous extended run to pushing double digits on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 RAP looks like a big hit. Looks like the short, range rapid refresh models have done a 180 on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The HRRR is also bringing decent totals in the northwest of the city: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 We are still 36 hours out and unfortunately we are in the anything can happen spot. My guesses as of now. Will change tomorrow. GFS- rain changes earlier tomorrow and a decent amount of ice. lots of sleet then 2-4 snow into late Friday. CMC-rain changes later tomorrow afternoon. a little ice and a lot of sleet then 2-4 inches of snow into late morning Friday. NAM -rain doesn't change over until Thursday evening. light ice and sleet and 1-2 inches by early morning Friday. We all know that the NAM usually wins out on warm air longest so I put my money on the NAM right now but tonight is another night of models. NWS must blend everything so it is going to be a very tough forecast for them so I think we need to take it easy on them. They will be making changes right up to nowcasting Thursday night. I would love to be wrong and get less ice and more snow but I think Thursday night might be a sleet-fest. Who wants boring rain or snow when you can have it all. lol Should be fun to track anyhow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Note that neither of these maps would include any accumulated sleet that occurs. Also, they are Kuchera maps but they are almost identical (or even lower) for our region than the 10:1 maps, since the Kuchera ratio for this event would generally be around 10:1 due to the warm nose aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 32 line seems to be advancing a little faster on the Canadian. Of course, that means we get pounded with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Not bad. Full run says a foot at 10:1 ratio. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Is the RAP even tracking the same storm as the other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Not bad. Full run says a foot at 10:1 ratio. Sleet bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 so basically it could do anything at this point nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Sleet bomb Yeah, doesn't look like the snowfall map is particularly accurate for the RAP at 10:1. Kuchera is somewhat better. Changeover to all snow in Pittsburgh occurs around 0z Friday (Thursday evening) on that run and the 10:1 map already has 5.6 inches accumulated at that time. In reality, taking the simulated radar literally, would be like 0.5-1" of mostly sleet (probably mixed with some wet snow). But even so it does show nearly 7" of snow thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just for fun at this point, but this is an incredible GFS run. Snowstorm, Arctic outbreak, rinse and repeat. We have 27” piled up through hour 300, parts of SW Ohio are pushing 4 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Just for fun at this point, but this is an incredible GFS run. Snowstorm, Arctic outbreak, rinse and repeat. Agree maybe with the cold more chances for Clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordo74 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Just for fun at this point, but this is an incredible GFS run. Snowstorm, Arctic outbreak, rinse and repeat. We have 27” piled up through hour 300, parts of SW Ohio are pushing 4 feet. You can’t say that and not post maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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