Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, dj3 said: We already have some patients calling and cancelling tomorrow morning. Can't say I'm really surprised based on the timing of the Winter Storm Warning even though impact should be later on as you stated. I'm probably in wait and see mode about leaving/closing early tomorrow. yeah same here the HRRR at 18z looks colder and icier. If by tomorrow it looks like we will torch and avoid the ice then I'll stay at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 18z HRRR is interesting. Basically goes straight from rain to sleet in Pittsburgh. This HRRR run is a pretty drastic change, would you agree? I’m only out to hr 32 but I’m thinking it shows a decent snow ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: This HRRR run is a pretty drastic change, would you agree? I’m only out to hr 32 but I’m thinking it shows a decent snow ending. I would say it shifted a good bit south. The 12z run had basically no snow through daybreak Friday, this one has a warning level snow. And the lack of zr, while good, is a massive change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: I would say it shifted a good bit south. The 12z run had basically no snow through daybreak Friday, this one has a warning level snow. And the lack of zr, while good, is a massive change. Yeah I was going to say…I didn’t think the other long range hrrr runs had basically any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: yeah same here the HRRR at 18z looks colder and icier. If by tomorrow it looks like we will torch and avoid the ice then I'll stay at work. It seems to be shaping up to be such a tough forecast. With Allegheny county being the battle zone (again lol) I could see a scenario where I leave work west of the city with icing and by the time I get home I'm sitting in 33 and rain for another a few hours. Tomorrow night seems dicey so I certainly don't envy you if you do end up working. Hope things are safe either way for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I mean granted a lot is probably sleet look at the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: I mean granted a lot is probably sleet look at the difference I’m pretty sure the HRRR breaks out snow separately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: I mean granted a lot is probably sleet look at the difference All of it falls at temps of 28 or lower and most of it falls at temps 25 or lower, which would help ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I would say it shifted a good bit south. The 12z run had basically no snow through daybreak Friday, this one has a warning level snow. And the lack of zr, while good, is a massive change. Not for western areas. The airport would be looking at nearly .5" of freezing rain, while eastern Allegheny Co. maybe nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: Not for western areas. The airport would be looking at nearly .5" of freezing rain, while eastern Allegheny Co. maybe nothing. Prior run had the airport looking at well over an inch. But point taken, relative “lack”. There is zr in the areas you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NAM looks like it's adjusting to 18z data too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Prior run had the airport looking at well over an inch. But point taken, relative “lack”. There is zr in the areas you mentioned. Oh, well that is better, hadn't seen that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18Z HRRR would be a beast of a storm. Suspect these numbers are overdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Looks a little colder and faster with the changeover on the 18z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said: 18Z HRRR would be a beast of a storm. NAM actually is looking more like the HRRR now. Maybe the RAP was actually on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 ouch... So say we do get ice and then 6inches of snow is anybody gonna be upset at such a "bust" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: ouch... So say we do get ice and then 6inches of snow is anybody gonna be upset at such a "bust" A “bust” from this system to me would be something like maybe 1-3” of snow and 0.1-0.3” of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 My kids school already prepped them for a 'fid' day tomorrow (no more snow days, just school from home now). Interesting is that most of the storm would come after the morning but there could be an issue getting home from school., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I'll be upset if tree limbs come down and "bust" up the power lines because it would really suck to have no power once temps start dipping. I've got the generator ready, hope I won't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NAM moved a decent bit southeast and colder fwiw. 0z could have huge implications on this storm. One thing is for certain the 18z data is showing more white/ice than wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: ouch... So say we do get ice and then 6inches of snow is anybody gonna be upset at such a "bust" I mean, if I don't have a power...yeah, but if I do I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: I mean, if I don't have a power...yeah, but if I do I'm good. Suppose you got an inch of ice but the power stayed on. Take or toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Suppose you got an inch of ice but the power stayed on. Take or toss? I mean, as long as everyone is safe, then okay. But the destruction at an inch of ice, is not something I'd want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NAM slightly colder and also develops another wave. Taken literally, the city is in icy hell in between, but dropped the bigger totals a little closer from the north, and then developed another band of 3-4” snows south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Burghblizz said: NAM slightly colder and also develops another wave. Taken literally, the city is in icy hell in between, but dropped the bigger closer from the north, and then developed that other band of 3-4” snows south Just keeping trending south and we'll be on the good side. Let's hope it's the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 When was our last significant ice storm? Was it late 90's? I can maybe recall losing power once over ice but I feel like big ice is rare for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, dj3 said: When was our last significant ice storm? Was it late 90's? I can maybe recall losing power once over ice but I feel like big ice is rare for us. When we first moved to PA in Nov 2018, just started to unpack and lost power because of the ice storm for 12 hours. I thought the power infra would be more resistant to winter weather because the area deals with it all the time, haha, I was wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, donyewest said: When we first moved to PA in Nov 2018, just started to unpack and lost power because of the ice storm for 12 hours. I thought the power infra would be more resistant to winter weather because the area deals with it all the time, haha, I was wrong. There definitely is a good chunk of the area that has a combination of trees and above ground lines - not a great combo. But severe ice storms aren’t too frequent thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 lol my point and click has no accumulation.... 12 miles away point and click shows 5-8". Crazy gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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