Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The 18z euro came SE. can’t really make this up. I love model mayhem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, TimB84 said: GFS basically folded. It’s over. Maybe it’ll be like last year and we can get a snowless March and a consolation prize of an inch and a half on April 21st that melts in 3 hours. KPIT, is that you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I never put any stock into the 18z runs. Just wait for the 00z and we will see what we have. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I never put any stock into the 18z runs. Just wait for the 00z and we will see what we have. .I say this, but you better believe that if the 18z was puking snow, I’d lock in that run in a heartbeat . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Not too bad. I mean not a lot, but it has Pittsburgh getting nearly as much as Cleveland, especially at the PIT airport which is depicted to get between 6 and 7 inches. Actually has a relative maxima through northern Beaver and Butler Counties. But overall the Euro is not impressed at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: I never put any stock into the 18z runs. Just wait for the 00z and we will see what we have. . I don't know. The GFS moved north a bit, but the European moved south. They actually seem quite similar now, although the European is drier in general. Here was the GFS 10:1 map for reference: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The 18z euro came SE. can’t really make this up. Best run of the Euro yet since it jumped way North a couple days ago. GFS didn't "cave" from what I saw, was maybe 25 mile NW, well within any error at this range, and the NAM well it's the NAM. Let's see what 00z does, if things keep going the wrong way then you start to think maybe it's not going to work out. I really don't get all the melting in this thread earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 49 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: Right now guidance shows the 850 low as more of glorified trough of LP. Shouldn’t take much to flip to frozen near the boundary. Interesting system. Plus since everything will be gravy, I’m not sweating this storm like MLK. ⛄️ I'm with you on this, pretty zen on the whole situation. It's like we are a last place underdog that had no business making the playoffs yet here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Not too bad. I mean not a lot, but it has Pittsburgh getting nearly as much as Cleveland, especially at the PIT airport which is depicted to get between 6 and 7 inches. Actually has a relative maxima through northern Beaver and Butler Counties. But overall the Euro is not impressed at all. Looks much more south from earlier solutions, good trend in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 How about a good ole fashioned NAMing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The HRRR is a bad start to the 00z suite. Looks like 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: How about a good ole fashioned NAMing I am with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: The HRRR is a bad start to the 00z suite. Looks like 33 and rain. I dont know... Somethings looks really off on that radar run of the HRRR. Like a force field bubble. The freezing line approaches and then doesnt advance for 12 straight hours.. Call me Rosey, but it looks strange to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: I dont know... Somethings looks really off on that radar run of the HRRR. Like a force field bubble. The freezing line approaches and then doesnt advance for 12 straight hours.. Call me Rosey, but it looks strange to me. I mean…we’ve seen this before. It seems like every storm we are the battleground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 at least its interesting... Always nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NAM looks very similar the the HRRR through 39 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said: I never put any stock into the 18z runs. Just wait for the 00z and we will see what we have. . 0z NAM and HRRR Watches should have never been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 0z NAM and HRRR Watches should have never been issued. KPitt is starting to rub off on you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 positive vibes people. Positive vibes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Good news!!! Looks like we dry slot on the NAM! Man, do we know how to do it here! Our storms we look great a day or two out bust low. If we need an adjustment to get us in a good spot, it goes the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: positive vibes people. Positive vibes We will see what the other models do but the first two were BAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Good news!!! Looks like we dry slot on the NAM! Man, do we know how to do it here! Our storms we look great a day or two out bust low. If we need an adjustment to get us in a good spot, it goes the other way. You should be used to it by now but you still complain about it. The sooner you realize that a big storm here is 6-12 and may get a 12+ every 25-30 years the happier you will be... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Eh, I'd rather dry slot than have freezing rain for hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Oof, tough to read here already. Too heavy on negative. If something doesn’t look good just say it and move on. Please don’t continually complain about how terrible every storm is here, or how they bust, even when they didn’t. We know our climate, it is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Ahoff said: Oof, tough to read here already. Too heavy on negative. If something doesn’t look good just say it and move on. Please don’t continually complain about how terrible every storm is here, or how they bust, even when they didn’t. We know our climate, it is what it is. This, we have a pretty good group of people but we will lose posters if every single post is gloom and doom. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: This, we have a pretty good group of people but we will lose posters if every single post is gloom and doom. Have you read any other forum. There are dudes on the NE sub complaining about “only” 12 inches and the upstate thread has it as well. This is going to be another miss by 100 miles. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The nam looks way different than the previous run and frankly way different than any other guidance in regards to precipitation on the back edge. I don’t know how much stock should be put in it. The gfs and euro both showed it still snowing at 18z Friday. The nam is like 12 hours faster. Also the gfs has a low pressure in Georgia the same timeframe the Nam has a low overhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Oof, tough to read here already. Too heavy on negative. If something doesn’t look good just say it and move on. Please don’t continually complain about how terrible every storm is here, or how they bust, even when they didn’t. We know our climate, it is what it is. Our climate is nowhere near as bad as it’s been recently. Until the storm last year we had only a few 6+ inch storm even in the previous 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Our climate is nowhere near as bad as it’s been recently. Until the storm last year we had only a few 6+ inch storm even in the previous 10 years. It happens but crying about every miss to the south east or NW isn't helping. We will eventually get a great memorable storm but it's very difficult for everything to line up perfectly for our area. 1950 redux could be lurking around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Our climate is nowhere near as bad as it’s been recently. Until the storm last year we had only a few 6+ inch storm even in the previous 10 years. Guarantee there were periods decades ago that were the same. Climate goes through patterns. It’s a good thing none of us were around for the season that had 8.8”. You’d have had a coronary. Also, just the fact that our average seasonal snow increased with the new normals released last year, kind of proves you wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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