TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, TheClimateChanger said: No, I don't think the ice forecast changed. Still shows the highest totals of 0.25"+ for the immediate metro but tops out at 0.3" in the W. Va. panhandle. I just used the 0.2-0.3" as a general range for the broader region. 0.25”+ is red. I don’t see any red on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: That’s significantly less bullish than they were on the ice potential earlier. The previous package had over a quarter inch for much of the metro. They’ve also updated the zones to include a lot more mix during the day Thursday. I’m not sure I understand that though. If we do drop temps below freezing say mid afternoon Thursday there is going to be like 1-1.5 inches of frozen precip so .3 ice, 3 inches of snow, and 8 inches of sleet is what they are banking on? It has to fall as SOMETHING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Actually thats 3 inches of sleet. Ratios of sleet are about 3 to 1 Ok that makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: 0.25”+ is red. I don’t see any red on that map. Sorry, I edited my reply. I was still viewing the old map. Refreshed to the new one when I posted. My edit: Actually they just changed it. I was wrong. Now they show generally less than a tenth of inch of icing. I had to refresh my browser for the new map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ground is still frozen under all this snow up in Butler. Whatever melts between now, during the rain, likely won't be enough to warm up a lot of the surfaces. WAA means clouds so the sun won't be out to really warm up manmade surfaces either. Wonder if the freezing rain is going to readily accumulate everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Ok that makes more sense. Yeah, sleet is like 3:1, maybe 4:1. Would take a full inch of precipitation to lay down 3" of sleet. I will say normally when we get sleet, there is at least some mangled snowflakes mixed in. And perhaps the occasional changeover to heavy, wet snow with dynamic cooling of the column during periods of heavier precipitation. So we could get a bit more accumulation than the models are showing. It seems the Pivotal algorithms are set up to completely discard mixed precipitation as snowfall, which is why it keeps showing the razor sharp cutoff from 12+ to little or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Its the dead of winter. 2 minutes ago, donyewest said: Ground is still frozen under all this snow up in Butler. Whatever melts between now, during the rain, likely won't be enough to warm up a lot of the surfaces. WAA means clouds so the sun won't be out to really warm up manmade surfaces either. Wonder if the freezing rain is going to readily accumulate everywhere. Its the dead of winter. Won't have any issues with it not icing up. Especially if its light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Actually they just changed it. I was wrong. Now they show generally less than a tenth of inch of icing. I had to refresh my browser for the new map. That's positive. We need that SE trend again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The book has been closed on January. Coldest January (5.2 degrees below normal) since 2014. Snowiest January since 2011. At least a trace of snow on 23 days, measurable snow on 13 days. There were 20 days that didn’t get above freezing. Finished the month with 15 consecutive days of snow cover. About as good as it can get if you ask me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Posting this not as a snowfall map, but to show just how much sleet would be possible on the NAM. This map shows all precipitation falling as sleet and snow as 10:1, so that means about 1.8" of precipitation is to fall as snow or sleet - almost all of which falls as sleet. Using a more realistic 3:1 or 4:1 ratio for sleet would mean 5.4-7.2" of sleet... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I think we legitimately could get 2-4 inches of sleet, maybe 5 in spots, if these models are correct (probably with some snow mixed in too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Interesting what NWS in Cleveland is calling for matches the "high end" for PIT Looks like some continuity between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS looking very similar to 6z thru 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Slower to make sleet change to snow which will cut into snow totals but we get pounded for hours on end with heavy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Gradient of 4-12” of snow across Allegheny not counting sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Not bad. Very subtle slight south shift in highest snow totals. Now brings a foot to most of Beaver and Butler Counties, as well as NW Allegheny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 If the sleet were to somehow fall as snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I don't know, guys. This pesky GFS just doesn't want to budge. Looks like it's going to just keep holding pat until all the other models converge onto its idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 With a GFS-like snowpack, it continues to insist that Saturday morning could be the coldest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I weenied out a bit and looked at the soundings for my backyard (Cranberry). It was right on pivotals sleet line, but the soundings never went above freezing at any level. I’d love to see another model join the GFS though. Getting real close to something nice for northern AGC and points N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: GFS looking very similar to 6z thru 48hr Yeah comparing hour to hour vs previous run it's maybe ever so slightly colder / faster with the cold push but for someone that's going to make a big difference. I hope we can get like the Canadian and Euro to get closer to the GFS, that would instill a lot of confidence that this is turning the right way. At least the NAM is making the move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Unfortunately, the short-term Canadian model still wants to send this storm up to, well, Canada: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: I weenied out a bit and looked at the soundings for my backyard (Cranberry). It was right on pivotals sleet line, but the soundings never went above freezing at any level. I’d love to see another model join the GFS though. Getting real close to something nice for northern AGC and points N. Wouldn't it be nice for the cold air to win out and come in faster than modeled like what usually happens to us with the warm nose? If it's going to happen this is probably the type of setup to do it with a strong arctic boundary pressing and a decent 1040+ high in a good position to the north. I'd feel better being west / north of the city right now but I wouldn't be too upset over 2-4 inches of sleet either, that is something pretty unusual. One can hope. Sure looks like your move is paying off this winter eh? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, TheClimateChanger said: Unfortunately, the short-term Canadian model still wants to send this storm up to, well, Canada: Probably also means the Canadian won't be making any big jumps towards the GFS. Man, what a battle, something is going bust pretty badly and I hope it's not the one that gives us the most snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Probably also means the Canadian won't be making any big jumps towards the GFS. Man, what a battle, something is going bust pretty badly and I hope it's not the one that gives us the most snow. It looks like a slight NW shift on the Canadian but we can’t really afford anything in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ive been in an out of this forum today and trying to keep up with all of the posts. This is the most recent Ice forecast though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 30 minutes ago, TimB84 said: With a GFS-like snowpack, it continues to insist that Saturday morning could be the coldest of the season. How cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 36 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Not bad. Very subtle slight south shift in highest snow totals. Now brings a foot to most of Beaver and Butler Counties, as well as NW Allegheny. Keep dropping south! Seems there's a lot of room to the north for corrections south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: How cold? GFS drops to -12 but is by far the coldest model on that part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The weekend looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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