TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1.8” of QPF through 3z Friday, of which 1.72” is rain and the other 0.08” is “freezing rain” that falls during the day at 32 degrees, which is just a glorified way to say plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: A boring rainstorm. It’s almost like they set these models up in such a way that they suck us in for a storm we had no business tracking, only to pull the rug out. I tried not to get very interested in this storm so I'd probably be less annoyed than normal if that is the final outcome. I do think its funny that the local news has seemed to hype this potential at a longer range than the MLK storm. I was getting texts from family Monday morning asking about the storm that was coming. Must be because of the icing potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I’d go as far as to say they should take down the watch, but they’ll leave it up until it turns into an advisory for a trace to a tenth of freezing rain. We met our quota of one good winter month, but now it’s February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 If it isn't gonna snow bring on the soaking rains. Get that mix line to Cleveland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 They won't and probably shouldn't considering it is only 1 NAM run and we know it can wildly jump. If the GFS starts caving possibly overnight after the 0z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3K looks a little bit colder but still plain rain through most of Allegheny county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, dj3 said: They won't and probably shouldn't considering it is only 1 NAM run and we know it can wildly jump. If the GFS starts caving possibly overnight after the 0z runs. Even if it’s several runs, they’ll never take down the watch, they’ll just quietly replace it with an advisory and rejoice in the fact that an advisory was the right call if we get even a trace of zr, since that’s the criteria for an advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 In other news, we overperformed on temps again today, as we always do when there’s snow to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Not sure why I even watched this, but there were several runs that sucked me in. That change on the NAM though was absolutely massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Even if it’s several runs, they’ll never take down the watch, they’ll just quietly replace it with an advisory and rejoice in the fact that an advisory was the right call if we get even a trace of zr, since that’s the criteria for an advisory. Obviously too early to know the final outcome, but let's say this does end up as 33 and rain for the majority of the area. This would be the exact type of storm that gets a bunch of people complaining about how you shouldn't trust the weather on the news lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, dj3 said: Obviously too early to know the final outcome, but let's say this does end up as 33 and rain for the majority of the area. This would be the exact type of storm that gets a bunch of people complaining about how you shouldn't trust the weather on the news lol. I’d be fine with 33 and rain. I’d be fine with a sleet storm. If it’s between rain and freezing rain please give me rain every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I’d be fine with 33 and rain. I’d be fine with a sleet storm. If it’s between rain and freezing rain please give me rain every time. I’d also be fine with missing out on this storm if there wasn’t still a sour taste from last year when we missed out on a storm in mid-February, not knowing at the time that it was our last chance for any real snowfall, and worrying that this could be that moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 They are definitely not canceling anything. 33° on one run of one model. HRRR is still out of its league with this amount of time to go. 18z NAM keeps the ice line close enough to the county for the watch to be maintained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Wait…. So we have the GFS and Euro came in faster with the cold and would be impactful with sleet and freezing rain but we are burning it all down and killing the rest of FEB over one 18z NAM run!? Lol Im by no means discounting a slower push of cold and we plain rain, it’s been on the table and honestly the more likely scenario but a bit premature reaction off one run of one cycle. If we see the others go North then yeah it’s game over but it’s still not like we lost 18in of snow in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 found this. Thought it was nice to see the comparison between models and runs of models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This seems to always happen with the models lately. They can't come to agreement until the day of. It was weird looking at the 12z GFS and CEM today and seeing that they seem to be 100 miles apart. I'm guessing they will eventually all come together but as always we get sucked into the the best one for us (GFS this time) If it comes down to the rain scenario at 33 mixing and changing to snow let's hope we can score at least 2-4 somewhere in there whether sleet or snow. (This is why we all criticize NWS for being cautious because it is the best thing to do) But it never fails that we all get sucked in days before hahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 People at the dog park, omg you hear about this crazy storm we are gonna have... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18Z NAM 18Z GFS This is what we are up against Thursday. Who wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 also I'm hearing the gfs caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS basically folded. It’s over. Maybe it’ll be like last year and we can get a snowless March and a consolation prize of an inch and a half on April 21st that melts in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: GFS basically folded. It’s over. No surprise. Basically every model was NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yep GFS caves harder than the Steelers do every year in the playoffs. Very impressive Snow is most likely out of the question but we certainly not out of the woods yet as far as ice goes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: Yep GFS caves harder than the Steelers do every year in the playoffs. Very impressive Snow is most likely out of the question but we certainly not out of the woods yet as far as ice goes. Wonderful! Like you said, push that freezing line to Cleveland. I want nothing to do with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecanem Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Can we talk about Saturday morning temperature again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Ecanem said: Can we talk about Saturday morning temperature again? Cold and dry does nothing for me unless we are talking record breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Ecanem said: Can we talk about Saturday morning temperature again? Great. On top of us getting 2 inches of rain then it can be ten below…our normal cold dry wet warm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Cold and dry does nothing for me unless we are talking record breaking. The record for Saturday is -11 if that helps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Great. On top of us getting 2 inches of rain then it can be ten below…our normal cold dry wet warm pattern. Rest assured we won’t get to -10, especially since we won’t have snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Right now guidance shows the 850 low as more of glorified trough of LP. Shouldn’t take much to flip to frozen near the boundary. Interesting system. Plus since everything will be gravy, I’m not sweating this storm like MLK. ⛄️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The 18z euro came SE. can’t really make this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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