Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Alright…wtf… who stole the GFS super computer cluster and is running it in their basement with modified physics code?  It can’t be this different from the rest and be correct can it? Lol

[Rd9108]

well then 

[Burghblizz]

That boundary is tight. GFS was actually a little colder than 12Z, but didn’t extend the wave of precip as far into Friday. But it largely held serve.

The NAM wasn’t anything great for us, but does get a raging sleet storm pretty close. 

Still think this feels like big hit for NW PA/NE OH. My glimmer of hope is that I have seen the rushing of cold air undermodeled here, similar to the way warm air advecting often is. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

well then 

There’s a ton of sleet probably counted as snow but still. Something’s got to start caving one way or the other soon you’d think.

[Rd9108]

2 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

That boundary is tight. GFS was actually a little colder than 12Z, but didn’t extend the wave of precip as far into Friday. But it largely held serve.

The NAM wasn’t anything great for us, but does get a raging sleet storm pretty close. 

Still think this feels like big hit for NW PA/NE OH. My glimmer of hope is that I have seen the rushing of cold air undermodeled here, similar to the way warm air advecting often is. 

Add on to the fact this shouldn't be a crazy deepening low which usually the NAM excels on. 

[TheClimateChanger]

9 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Alright…wtf… who stole the GFS super computer cluster and is running it in their basement with modified physics code?  It can’t be this different from the rest and be correct can it? Lol

That's a depth positive change map, which includes sleet as snowfall... similar to this one from Pivotal:

[MikeB_01]

The GFS needs to stop playing with my heart. Honestly, even though it is the furthest SE, it really isn’t that far fetched. It’s just a predominantly stationary frontal boundary that the energy runs along. If that boundary is suppressed like the GFS it’s game time


.

[Burghblizz]

6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Alright…wtf… who stole the GFS super computer cluster and is running it in their basement with modified physics code?  It can’t be this different from the rest and be correct can it? Lol

That counts a lot of sleet as 10:1 snow, especially in Kentucky and Southern Ohio. But if we can get that warm layer out..

[Rd9108]

I won't be staying up but I'd love to see the 6z gfs and 0z euro show the same if not better. 

[TheClimateChanger]

5 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

That boundary is tight. GFS was actually a little colder than 12Z, but didn’t extend the wave of precip as far into Friday. But it largely held serve.

The NAM wasn’t anything great for us, but does get a raging sleet storm pretty close. 

Still think this feels like big hit for NW PA/NE OH. My glimmer of hope is that I have seen the rushing of cold air undermodeled here, similar to the way warm air advecting often is. 

I think that's the one missing variable. If we can get that boundary through, then winds shift to the north. With north winds, the typical warm nose is non-existent at least at the surface which would allow any mode of wintry precipitation to occur over plain rain.

[Rd9108]

Yeah I feel good about more frozen than rain to be honest. Maybe I'm being optimistic but usually the warm tongue shows up whenever we have a stronger low pressure trying to cut up very nearby. This just seems like weak waves riding on a boundary that is slowly pushing south. Maybe if that boundary is faster to move through we change over quicker. 

[Burghblizz]

GEFS lookin better. 

[north pgh]

CMC 12z

Cmc 0Z

[Rd9108]

the trend is more progressive and colder will it continue or start to reverse. the joys of model watching. I love telling people we could get either 8 inches of snow or rain this week and they look at me like I'm crazy. 

[north pgh]

Liking the trends. Time to get some sleep. 12z tomorrow will be big. 

[KPITSnow]

Looks like the 6z gfs and ensembles started ticking back north, and none of the other models really moved south. I’d guess that the death knell for us on this. Wasn’t expecting anything really but is going to suck that once again 100 miles away is going to get crushed again.

 

I just hope we can avoid any sort of icing. 

[MikeB_01]

Looks like the 6z gfs and ensembles started ticking back north, and none of the other models really moved south. I’d guess that the death knell for us on this. Wasn’t expecting anything really but is going to suck that once again 100 miles away is going to get crushed again.
 
I just hope we can avoid any sort of icing. 

Seems very unlikely at this point. There will be ice


.

[TimB]

So the text of the winter storm watch says 3-6” of snow, but NWS’s maps show 1.3” in Allegheny County with a high end amount of 2-3”?  

[TimB]

More concerning is the fact that “crippling ice storm” is still on the table. 6z NAM is ugly in this regard. Nearly an inch of steady freezing rain starting Thursday morning and going through midnight. Saving grace might be that much of the event is during the day and temps are in the 31-32 range.

[KPITSnow]

24 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

More concerning is the fact that “crippling ice storm” is still on the table. 6z NAM is ugly in this regard. Nearly an inch of steady freezing rain starting Thursday morning and going through midnight. Saving grace might be that much of the event is during the day and temps are in the 31-32 range.

I thought most of the ice was Thursday night. Point and click says 3/4 to 1 inch of precip Thursday night with a mix of everything. 
 

Friday morning will likely be a mess regardless. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

Looks like the 6z gfs and ensembles started ticking back north, and none of the other models really moved south. I’d guess that the death knell for us on this. Wasn’t expecting anything really but is going to suck that once again 100 miles away is going to get crushed again.

 

I just hope we can avoid any sort of icing. 

Taken in isolation, the 6z GFS basically held, the little NW trend could just be considered noise. 6z NAM also looks to be closer to the GFS now. However for those especially east and south of the city, not seeing all the other models make a significant jump towards the GFS makes me think we might end up seeing something more in between. I think it's going to be painful as locations 20 miles away might be reporting heavy sleet etc while it rains at 31.5 degrees in my yard. Even the NWS WSW doesn't include Armstrong / Westmoreland.

If I was in NW Allegheny SW Butler I'd feel pretty good about seeing some interesting weather vs my location given current models. Will need to see how things evolve as we get closer, if the GFS continues to hold its ground and we keep seeing incremental adjustments towards it I'd start to feel a bit better and expect WSW to expand eastward some.

[TimB]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

I thought most of the ice was Thursday night. Point and click says 3/4 to 1 inch of precip Thursday night with a mix of everything. 
 

Friday morning will likely be a mess regardless. 

NAM total is 0.90”. Steady light freezing rain during the day (0.36” by 4pm). Gets heavier after dark but would imagine some of that runs off.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

28 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

More concerning is the fact that “crippling ice storm” is still on the table. 6z NAM is ugly in this regard. Nearly an inch of steady freezing rain starting Thursday morning and going through midnight. Saving grace might be that much of the event is during the day and temps are in the 31-32 range.

Once we get into 3k NAM territory start paying attention to how it does with 2m temperatures etc. It's not great with precipitation amounts but it does seem to do pretty well depicting warm layers etc and has a better handle on p-type with its higher resolution.

I think part of this will depend how much surfaces warm today and tomorrow with highs getting above freezing ground temperatures will warm up some so that may be overcome as well but if we keep snow cover maybe that won't matter much.

I'm trying to remember the last time we had rain changing to freezing rain, I think it was probably 4 years ago with an arctic front approaching. We did get ice but it transitioned to sleet faster than forecast, that's what I'm hoping for with this. Part of me wouldn't mind seeing a sleet bomb and if that's your expectation its not the same as expecting a big all snow storm then hearing pinging 3 hours into it. This time I'll be hoping to hear it unless by some miraculous turn of events we can get more snow.

 

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

 

I'm trying to remember the last time we had rain changing to freezing rain, I think it was probably 4 years ago with an arctic front approaching.

 

1/12/18? Did that start as rain?

[RitualOfTheTrout]

I feel like it's been awhile since I looked at the BUFKIT tables, but here is the big difference, GFS gets KPIT almost 7 inches of snow and like a tenth of ice, NAM gets KPIT almost .9 of ice, but its all with temperatures between 29-32

 

6z GFS

StnID: kpit    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO
 
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
220202/2300Z  41  16007KT  36.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03    0|  0|100
220203/0000Z  42  16008KT  37.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/0100Z  43  16008KT  38.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14    0|  0|100
220203/0200Z  44  17007KT  38.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16    0|  0|100
220203/0300Z  45  17006KT  38.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17    0|  0|100
220203/0400Z  46  18006KT  37.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20    0|  0|100
220203/0500Z  47  19005KT  38.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25    0|  0|100
220203/0600Z  48  23003KT  37.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/0700Z  49  32003KT  35.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32    0|  0|100
220203/0800Z  50  34006KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35    0|  0|100
220203/0900Z  51  33006KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.014    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.36    0|  0|100
220203/1000Z  52  34007KT  27.9F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.015    1:1|  0.0|| 0.03|| 0.01|| 0.38   17| 83|  0
220203/1100Z  53  34006KT  27.0F  SNPL    2:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.022    2:1|  0.1|| 0.06|| 0.01|| 0.40   31| 69|  0
220203/1200Z  54  35007KT  26.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.020    2:1|  0.1|| 0.06|| 0.04|| 0.42    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/1300Z  55  35007KT  26.0F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.029    1:1|  0.1|| 0.11|| 0.04|| 0.45   12| 88|  0
220203/1400Z  56  35008KT  25.6F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.020    1:1|  0.1|| 0.14|| 0.04|| 0.47   14| 86|  0
220203/1500Z  57  36007KT  25.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.015    1:1|  0.1|| 0.14|| 0.05|| 0.48    0|  2| 98
220203/1600Z  58  35008KT  25.6F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    1:1|  0.1|| 0.14|| 0.05|| 0.48    0|  0|  0
220203/1700Z  59  36007KT  25.1F  SNPL    5:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.026    2:1|  0.3|| 0.17|| 0.05|| 0.51   46| 54|  0
220203/1800Z  60  01008KT  24.7F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.074    2:1|  0.3|| 0.32|| 0.05|| 0.58    5| 95|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/1900Z  61  36008KT  24.9F  SNPL    2:1| 0.1|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.055    2:1|  0.3|| 0.41|| 0.05|| 0.64   12| 88|  0
220203/2000Z  62  01008KT  24.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.05|| 0.072    2:1|  0.3|| 0.45|| 0.11|| 0.71    0| 28| 72
220203/2100Z  63  01008KT  24.0F  SNPL    2:1| 0.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.078    2:1|  0.5|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 0.79   19| 81|  0
220203/2200Z  64  01009KT  23.1F  SNOW   13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067    5:1|  1.4|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 0.85  100|  0|  0
220203/2300Z  65  01009KT  22.2F  SNOW   10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104    6:1|  2.4|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 0.96  100|  0|  0
220204/0000Z  66  01010KT  21.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076    6:1|  3.2|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.03  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220204/0100Z  67  01010KT  20.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065    7:1|  3.7|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.10  100|  0|  0
220204/0200Z  68  01010KT  20.0F  SNOW    8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073    7:1|  4.3|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.17  100|  0|  0
220204/0300Z  69  01010KT  18.9F  SNOW    7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064    7:1|  4.7|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.24  100|  0|  0
220204/0400Z  70  01010KT  18.4F  SNOW   11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    7:1|  5.3|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.29  100|  0|  0
220204/0500Z  71  02010KT  18.0F  SNOW   10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    7:1|  5.8|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.33  100|  0|  0
220204/0600Z  72  02008KT  18.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    7:1|  6.1|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.38  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220204/0700Z  73  01008KT  17.9F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    7:1|  6.5|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.43  100|  0|  0
220204/0800Z  74  02008KT  17.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038    7:1|  6.7|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.47  100|  0|  0
220204/0900Z  75  01008KT  17.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    7:1|  7.1|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.50  100|  0|  0
220204/1000Z  76  02008KT  17.1F  SNOW    5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    7:1|  7.2|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.54  100|  0|  0
220204/1100Z  77  02007KT  17.0F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    7:1|  7.3|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.55  100|  0|  0
220204/1200Z  78  02007KT  16.6F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011    7:1|  7.5|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.56  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220204/1300Z  79  01007KT  16.6F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    7:1|  7.5|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.57  100|  0|  0
220204/1400Z  80  01007KT  17.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    7:1|  7.6|| 0.58|| 0.11|| 1.58  100|  0|  0

6Z NAM

StnID: kpit    Profile Thermal Adjust:  0.0       Cloud RH threshold:  85%    Average Hourly Sounding: NO
 
 Date/hour    FHr  Wind    SfcT   Ptype   SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF    CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF   S%| I%| L%
============================================================================================================================
220203/0000Z  42  13006KT  38.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/0100Z  43  15006KT  39.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05    0|  0|100
220203/0200Z  44  15009KT  39.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12    0|  0|100
220203/0300Z  45  16009KT  39.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14    0|  0|100
220203/0400Z  46  17008KT  39.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15    0|  0|100
220203/0500Z  47  18007KT  39.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19    0|  0|100
220203/0600Z  48  18007KT  39.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/0700Z  49  19007KT  40.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22    0|  0|100
220203/0800Z  50  21005KT  40.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22    0|  0|100
220203/0900Z  51  24003KT  40.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24    0|  0|100
220203/1000Z  52  29004KT  39.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26    0|  0|100
220203/1100Z  53  32007KT  35.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28    0|  0|100
220203/1200Z  54  34008KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.008    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.28    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/1300Z  55  34007KT  28.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.017    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.30    0|  0|100
220203/1400Z  56  35006KT  28.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.050    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.35    0|  0|100
220203/1500Z  57  36006KT  28.8F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.041    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.12|| 0.39    0|  0|100
220203/1600Z  58  01006KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.052    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.18|| 0.44    0|  0|100
220203/1700Z  59  36007KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.046    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.23|| 0.49    0|  0|100
220203/1800Z  60  01007KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.042    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.27|| 0.53    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220203/1900Z  61  02007KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.024    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.29|| 0.56    0|  0|100
220203/2000Z  62  03008KT  29.7F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.039    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.34|| 0.60    0|  0|100
220203/2100Z  63  02008KT  30.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.072    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.67    0|  0|100
220203/2200Z  64  01010KT  31.0F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.106    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.52|| 0.77    0|  0|100
220203/2300Z  65  03010KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.08|| 0.081    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.61|| 0.85    0|  0|100
220204/0000Z  66  05009KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.051    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.66|| 0.91    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220204/0100Z  67  01008KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.16|| 0.154    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.82|| 1.06    0|  0|100
220204/0200Z  68  35009KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.121    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.82|| 1.18    0|  0|100
220204/0300Z  69  35010KT  29.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.04|| 0.043    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.87|| 1.22    0|  0|100
220204/0400Z  70  35010KT  27.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.03|| 0.033    0:1|  0.0|| 0.01|| 0.90|| 1.26    0| 15| 85
220204/0500Z  71  35010KT  26.9F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.04|| 0.062    0:1|  0.0|| 0.06|| 0.93|| 1.32    0| 42| 58
220204/0600Z  72  35009KT  26.5F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.09|| 0.02|| 0.063    0:1|  0.0|| 0.16|| 0.95|| 1.38    0| 74| 26
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220204/0700Z  73  35009KT  25.6F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.051    0:1|  0.0|| 0.26|| 0.95|| 1.43    0|100|  0
220204/0800Z  74  35009KT  24.0F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.026    0:1|  0.0|| 0.31|| 0.95|| 1.46    0|100|  0
220204/0900Z  75  35009KT  22.5F  SNPL    2:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.018    2:1|  0.0|| 0.33|| 0.95|| 1.48   48| 52|  0
220204/1000Z  76  35008KT  21.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    4:1|  0.1|| 0.33|| 0.95|| 1.49  100|  0|  0
220204/1100Z  77  35008KT  20.2F  SNOW   10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031    7:1|  0.4|| 0.33|| 0.95|| 1.52  100|  0|  0
220204/1200Z  78  35008KT  19.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    7:1|  0.5|| 0.33|| 0.95|| 1.53  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220204/1300Z  79  35007KT  19.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    7:1|  0.6|| 0.33|| 0.95|| 1.54  100|  0|  0
220204/1400Z  80  34007KT  19.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    7:1|  0.6|| 0.33|| 0.95|| 1.54    0|  0|  0

[TheClimateChanger]

NAM caving? I haven't even looked at the sensible weather yet, but the 2M temperature at 15Z on Thursday (what is that about 1 PM, I think?) in Pittsburgh is now shown on the 12z run as 27F in Pittsburgh versus 31F at the same time on the 6z run.

[TheClimateChanger]

Oh yeah, it is. Big time. Mix line down near Greene/Washington County border - and this is only early afternoon Thursday!

[TheClimateChanger]

It does try to nose the warmth back up, which pushes the sleet back over Pittsburgh. At 21Z Thursday, its 30F at PIT (versus 31F on the prior run), but Charleston, WV is 10 degrees colder at the same time than the prior run (40F versus 50F).

[TimB]

12z HRRR (at the end of its range, of course) has us down to 33 by daybreak Thursday.

[TimB]

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

NAM caving? I haven't even looked at the sensible weather yet, but the 2M temperature at 15Z on Thursday (what is that about 1 PM, I think?) in Pittsburgh is now shown on the 12z run as 27F in Pittsburgh versus 31F at the same time on the 6z run.

NAM also has us below freezing all day Thursday from daybreak. More sleet than zr in Pittsburgh but the 1”+ ice totals are in southern Allegheny county.