TheClimateChanger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Here's the official NWS forecast through Thursday at 7 PM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Here's the official NWS forecast through Thursday at 7 PM: Would presume by morning we’ll have a first look at a NWS forecast that takes into account the main period of the event (Thursday night). ILN issued watches for their counties basically along and north of I-70 through western and central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'm interested to see what happens here. I had all but given up on anything but mainly rain with some mostly inconsequential wintry precipitation on the back end, then I saw the 6z/12z GFS. None of the models look like the GFS, its a SE outlier even among it's own ensembles. I have a feeling it's miss handling something. It seems to be the only one slowing down the ejection of the energy in the south west and having it come out in weaker pieces vs a more consolidated system. If it keeps holding through 18z / 00z tonight it will really be setting up a fairly big fail for either itself or the rest of the gang. We still don't know much about any new biases that may have been introduced since the last upgrade so who knows. It did alright with the blizzard but I think it ended up being to far east granted it was more right in the day 4 range with it and the MLK storm so.. grab a bowl of popcorn and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 We have seen plenty of times we have been in the bullseye 2-4 days out only to see it drift 100-200 miles the wrong direction with the MLK storm being one of those. Maybe this time can go the other way. Am I right in saying we need a very robust high up in Canada to keep this as south as possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Not much snow on the NAM, but it does seem to be trending towards a pretty substantial mixed precipitation event. Shows about 1-2" of sleet or sleet/snow mix in the north, with a band of up to an inch of freezing rain through the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Not much snow on the NAM, but it does seem to be trending towards a pretty substantial mixed precipitation event. Shows about 1-2" of sleet or sleet/snow mix in the north, with a band of up to an inch of freezing rain through the metro area. The heavy freezing rain and 31 degrees thing that @RitualOfTheTroutmentioned last night. Can’t imagine it’d be a massive ice storm, which is probably good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 50 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: We have seen plenty of times we have been in the bullseye 2-4 days out only to see it drift 100-200 miles the wrong direction with the MLK storm being one of those. Maybe this time can go the other way. Am I right in saying we need a very robust high up in Canada to keep this as south as possible? Need the high to press in quicker and as ritual said more pieces of energy gives more time for the cold to press like the GFS showed. The more strong and consolidated look at ejecting the southern shortwave on the euro doesn't give the high enough time to do its dirty work and get the boundary south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It doesn't get the job done on this run but the NAM does look a decent amount south from the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18z GFS keeps hope alive but does not allow the snow to linger through the day on Friday. Still a decent 3-6 event across the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looks like it'll be a good rain event regardless. I hope we get some good melting the next few days, still have like >7" everywhere, a lot of rain on top of snow and frozen ground is a bit concerning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 yikes I want this to trend colder or full blown rain. Still some time but I feel like we are due for an overperformer 5-8. here's a pic of where I was all day. it was pretty cold first thing in the morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 23 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: yikes I want this to trend colder or full blown rain. Still some time but I feel like we are due for an overperformer 5-8. here's a pic of where I was all day. it was pretty cold first thing in the morning Oh wow, what do they have you doing there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: Oh wow, what do they have you doing there? Hazmat team so we had to move the diesel from the bus to avoid it spilling into the creek whenever the bus was eventually lifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 40 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Hazmat team so we had to move the diesel from the bus to avoid it spilling into the creek whenever the bus was eventually lifted. Interesting. Crazy what happened there. Amazing nobody was killed. I'll be interested to hear from an engineering perspective why it failed and whether inspections really conveyed the state it was in and it was ignored / overlooked or the inspection was lacking. Anyways 18z GEFS have several good members. This setup is clear as mud right now. Would be nice to see the Euro make a move towards the GFS. As it stands GFS is a very impactful storm, but we still need faster frontal passage for more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Well, alrighty then, better get the generator ready… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Well, alrighty then, better get the generator ready… I mean, if that happened it would be an epic disaster, but I agree with what other have said that ZR and 31 won't really accumulate. Now if it is 28 degrees and pounding rain then we have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: I mean, if that happened it would be an epic disaster, but I agree with what other have said that ZR and 31 won't really accumulate. Now if it is 28 degrees and pounding rain then we have a problem. If that happened maybe we could get federal disaster funds and they could fix the bridge while they’re at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Also the 0z NAM had no redeeming qualities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The NAM is extremely amped up. As is tradition the low gets up to us almost lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I’d have a hard time believing we’d get 1-2” of ice, just doesn’t seem realistic honestly. Has that much ice ever really accumulated anywhere it was modeled? Rather we’d just get rain, which is still quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Also the 0z NAM had no redeeming qualities. Hoist the flood watches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ahoff said: I’d have a hard time believing we’d get 1-2” of ice, just doesn’t seem realistic honestly. Has that much ice ever really accumulated anywhere it was modeled? Rather we’d just get rain, which is still quite possible. Agree. I'll take the NAM solution of 33 and rain as opposed to some solutions that are 29 and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Agree. I'll take the NAM solution of 33 and rain as opposed to some solutions that are 29 and freezing rain. 33 and rain is like kissing your sister or coming to a draw in the super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, MikeB_01 said: 33 and rain is like kissing your sister or coming to a draw in the super bowl. thJust remember that means that in Cleveland they are likely getting a foot and a half lol. There were a couple like that though, January of 19 but wasn't there also an event before Thanksgiving a few years ago that we we were forecasted for a good bit of snow, but ended up 33 and rain while Norther Beaver County got 8 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Well, I expected GFS to make a move towards the more NW models, but it’s actually coming in SE with the boundary at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The 0z GFS still looks like a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: Well, I expected GFS to make a move towards the more NW models, but it’s actually coming in SE with the boundary at 00z. I was honestly hoping that it would put this to bed, but it didn't. AMazing how wildly different the NAM and GFS are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 0z GFS (Kuchera ratio): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10:1 Ratio: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I was honestly hoping that it would put this to bed, but it didn't. AMazing how wildly different the NAM and GFS are. Why are they so different? I think it was hour 72 or somewhere around there... the NAM had Charleston, WV at 55, and the GFS at 32? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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