SP Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Well that was fun. A Shore Show Snow. Made for some nice pictures in the front holiday lights. It actually was coming down quite nicely for a while. I guess as a counter we should take pics in our shorts on Saturday?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Decent burst of snow here about 2 hours ago. Was out with my kids picking out a Christmas Tree and the skies opened up. Pretty cool. Anyone else notice trees are pushing $100 this year? Gone are the days of $30 Douglas Firs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Decent burst of snow here about 2 hours ago. Was out with my kids picking out a Christmas Tree and the skies opened up. Pretty cool. Anyone else notice trees are pushing $100 this year? Gone are the days of $30 Douglas Firs. I cut branches off a pine in the woods several years ago and bam I had a Christmas tree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: I cut branches off a pine in the woods several years ago and bam I had a Christmas tree. Got a picture? Surely you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 minute ago, KamuSnow said: Got a picture? Surely you do! I do have pictures it's a matter of finding em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: I do have pictures it's a matter of finding em Lol...good luck! Don't look any harder than you want to though. Defcon 3 or 2 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 minute ago, KamuSnow said: Lol...good luck! Don't look any harder than you want to though. Defcon 1 or 2 maybe. I was unemployed, drunk and possibly in a Clarke Griswold mood so if they are found don't judge harshly bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: I was unemployed, drunk and possibly in a Clarke Griswold mood so if they are found don't judge harshly bro Lol, I won't judge, I'm sure I have some good pics from episodes of doing what you gotta do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 A very light snow shower here in Media Delaware County 6:30-7:20 pm our second trace of the year. Yay get ready for 70 degrees and above normal temperatures next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 GFS is back with the crazy LR Miller A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 OH yea cannot wait when this shows up on the model for more than 3 runs. The snow weenies will come out hibernation. Talk about click bait and a tease. The GFS model cannot even predict a decent flurry right now. The only believable models is the Euro/NAM combo when the storm is in the 84 hour range. Otherwise time to put this dream storm storm to bed. The clown maps spit out over 2 ft of snow for us in the LV Currently , no where in the central and eastern US right now has even more than a foot of natural snow on the ground and they really expect me to believe this model is actually even used as "guidance" in this chaotic weather pattern? Give me a break. For the believers good luck and enjoy you dream storm. When the Euro shows it, then I may take the bait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 1 hour ago, hazwoper said: GFS is back with the crazy LR Miller A. Whether it verifies or not, that is beautiful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Am a bit surprised but probably shouldn't be, that it stayed a bit colder here today than I expected. The low was 29 and high was 39 but we are closing in on the shortest days of the year... Even with the low dews through the day, am expecting the WAA to start coming soon though. Currently 36 with a dry dp 25. Did have a red sunset, so I guess that means something (maybe RedSky smiling at the brief but unexpected white stuff). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Wind Advisory lofted for Philly metro, as well as well north/south and east- Have so far had my low of 32 happen some time after 1 am and have been on the upswing since. Currently 36 with dp on the rise and currently at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 In our new climate era, someone needs to write a Christmas carol about tornados. 38F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, JTA66 said: In our new climate era, someone needs to write a Christmas carol about tornados. 38F Interestingly enough, we see this sort of thing more in the spring than the fall but it's basically the same sort of dynamics (although for somewhat opposite reasons for those 2 seasons). I.e., spring has cold ground and warm air influxes and fall has warm ground and cold air influxes. Mother nature dictates that the temp/pressure must come into equilibrium somehow. I did see there was a tornado threat in the TN area. Currently overcast here and 38 with dp continuing to rise and at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 33 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Interestingly enough, we see this sort of thing more in the spring than the fall but it's basically the same sort of dynamics (although for somewhat opposite reasons for those 2 seasons). I.e., spring has cold ground and warm air influxes and fall has warm ground and cold air influxes. Mother nature dictates that the temp/pressure must come into equilibrium somehow. I did see there was a tornado threat in the TN area. Currently overcast here and 38 with dp continuing to rise and at 32. Maybe a slight risk of tor's in this area tomorrow too depending when the front comes through. Right now looks like timing is poor for that but something to watch with the dynamics in place Quote ...Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward across the lower Great Lakes region on Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the central Appalachians during the afternoon, with a squall line located ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front in the Mid-Atlantic are forecast to be in the upper 50s and lower 60s F with instability remaining weak (MUCAPE of 200 to 400 J/kg). The stronger part of the upper-level system will move northeastward into southern Quebec and this should result in a weakening squall line during the early to mid evening. An isolated wind-damage threat and potential for brief spinups may still be possible if parts of the squall line remain organized. However, any severe threat should be conditional and will probably be isolated. Will keep the threat level at marginal at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Looks like this warm up will only last through next week. GEFS and EPS both have building heights in the Greenland area around D10 along with a -EPO. While there may be a lag in our sensible weather due to the SE ridge needing to be beaten down, you can see a light at the end of the tunnel. End of the 06z GEFS looks pretty decent. Way better than the shutout look of next week. I was skeptical this pattern would break down this quickly but guidance is showing that to be the case. Hopefully it stays consistent but overall we should be tracking some threats possibly as early as the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Maybe a slight risk of tor's in this area tomorrow too depending when the front comes through. Right now looks like timing is poor for that but something to watch with the dynamics in place All kinds of stuff could happen with those squall lines. It will probably depend on how much heating is able to occur before the front arrives. More often than not, I have seen the cool air "bleed in" and stabilize the atmosphere around these parts (MBY at the higher elevations) but when it jumps over the river, all hell can break loose with the down slope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Looks like this warm up will only last through next week. GEFS and EPS both have building heights in the Greenland area around D10 along with a -EPO. While there may be a lag in our sensible weather due to the SE ridge needing to be beaten down, you can see a light at the end of the tunnel. End of the 06z GEFS looks pretty decent. Way better than the shutout look of next week. I was skeptical this pattern would break down this quickly but guidance is showing that to be the case. Hopefully it stays consistent but overall we should be tracking some threats possibly as early as the 20th. Maybe reflecting that the NAO is progged to go neutral or slightly negative in the long term (10 - 14 days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Mount Holly on tomorrow: I do think the overall environment will be highly favorable for a strongly forced and organized line of convection (likely a QLCS given the boundary orientation to the mean flow) along the cold front during the evening which may be capable of damaging winds and brief, weak tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Newman said: Mount Holly on tomorrow: I do think the overall environment will be highly favorable for a strongly forced and organized line of convection (likely a QLCS given the boundary orientation to the mean flow) along the cold front during the evening which may be capable of damaging winds and brief, weak tornadoes. SPC put the area in a marginal risk for DY2 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Looks like this warm up will only last through next week. GEFS and EPS both have building heights in the Greenland area around D10 along with a -EPO. While there may be a lag in our sensible weather due to the SE ridge needing to be beaten down, you can see a light at the end of the tunnel. End of the 06z GEFS looks pretty decent. Way better than the shutout look of next week. I was skeptical this pattern would break down this quickly but guidance is showing that to be the case. Hopefully it stays consistent but overall we should be tracking some threats possibly as early as the 20th. The PNA region looks to stay negative, so we'll definitely need those higher heights in the NAO region and high latitudes to force storms underneath the block. I like the look of the 50/50 region too, you'd build H across SE Canada. I just wonder if 1. Amplification of shortwaves could be obtained in a more zonal pattern and 2. If we'll have any semblance of a southern jet in this Nina regime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 12/19-20 may be something to watch for a thump to light rain event. Temps are marginal but with a strong high in quebec, the set up could easily yield a solid thump especially for NW areas but even 95 could see some accumulation with some slight adjustments mainly to the SE ridge. If the front on next thurs/fri can beat it down a bit more than progged, it may be the first real threat of the year. Still in the day 8-9 range so a lot can change obviously but something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 12z GEFS looks better for 12/19 - 12/20 at H5 than the OP imo. Better heights in Greenland plus the trough out west isn't dug as far south. IMO that may be enough to flatten the SE ridge enough to give most of us a thump on that storm. Still 9 days out, but not a bad signal at this range. Will have to see how it evolves this week but it's at least our first real chance at accumulating snow this year even if the most likely scenario is snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Tomorrow will see near record high temps for December 11th - so below is a list of record high temperatures for NWS Coop sites across Chester County and the year it occurred Coatesville - 68 (1897) / West Chester - 67 (1966) / Phoenixville - 66 (1966) / Chaddsford - 65 (1971)/ Glenmoore - 64 (1971) / Honey Brook - 64 (1971) / Devault - 62 (1897) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Week of the 20th has some good potential. Wouldnt be at all surprised to see a larger storm somewhere in the East during that week leading up to Christmas. Southern energy rolling across, active PJ being forced South as the PNA pops briefly and ridging enters the eastern NAO region. Euro/GFS family of models all over this threat: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 For now all we want is for it to move up in time. No can kicking please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 The overnight GFS does indeed show the turn to colder by next Sunday and for now models a snowstorm during Christmas week - of course this will change 50x over the next 10 days....but something to keep an eye on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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