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November 28-29 Storm Threat


40/70 Benchmark
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On 11/24/2021 at 8:48 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

I would hope there’s nooone surprised at this turning into a moderate to perhaps significant event. As soon as we saw multi model/ensemble agreement yesterday.. this went from “sniffing out” a SNE event to “honing in” on amounts .  I just took a top down view and felt at least.. a solid 4-8” event for SNE was very likely 

Great call.

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yes…. And I got flamed yesterday for questioning the reality of a Norlun event.

The problem is you poo-poo 12" snowfalls in your backyard too....so you end up like the reverse JB....there was never a bust you didn't call. :lol:

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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually they can happen, but the difficulty is pinpointing where they set up. In this case, the NAM did a complete face plant. 

9/10 times the inverted crap is an intermediary, provisional solution as guidance reconciles previously robust solutions with the reality that nothing is going to really happen.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

9/10 times the inverted crap is an intermediary, provisional solution as guidance reconciles previously robust solutions with the reality that nothing is going to really happen.

IVTs are “rare” in the sense that they are modeled way more than they happen...but they actually aren’t THAT rare in an absolute sense. We probably get at least 1-2 per winter. Usually they are like an inch or two though. The ones that produce >4” of snow are definitely less frequent. I could count those on one hand per decade. We had two big ones in back to back winters in Feb 2013 and Jan 2014 in ORH but not sure we’ve had one since then that I can think of off the top of my head. 

We’re actually kind of “due”. We had good ones on Feb 22, 2007, Dec 19-20, 2007 and then again on December 20, 2008. Then we had one on 2/3/09 to cap off that great 6 weeks in the 08-09 winter before the pattern changed. 

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

IVTs are “rare” in the sense that they are modeled way more than they happen...but they actually aren’t THAT rare in an absolute sense. We probably get at least 1-2 per winter. Usually they are like an inch or two though. The ones that produce >4” of snow are definitely less frequent. I could count those on one hand per decade. We had two big ones in back to back winters in Feb 2013 and Jan 2014 in ORH but not sure we’ve had one since then that I can think of off the top of my head. 

We’re actually kind of “due”. We had good ones on Feb 22, 2007, Dec 19-20, 2007 and then again on December 20, 2008. Then we had one on 2/3/09 to cap off that great 6 weeks in the 08-09 winter before the pattern changed. 

IVT happens far more often than back to back snowfalls 

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The last notable one I can remember is March 2013

That one was incredible down there...some spots had over a foot in 3 hours. I think even the E Wareham coop had just shy of a foot but the jackpot was just west of them. 

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49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

IVTs are “rare” in the sense that they are modeled way more than they happen...but they actually aren’t THAT rare in an absolute sense. We probably get at least 1-2 per winter. Usually they are like an inch or two though. The ones that produce >4” of snow are definitely less frequent. I could count those on one hand per decade. We had two big ones in back to back winters in Feb 2013 and Jan 2014 in ORH but not sure we’ve had one since then that I can think of off the top of my head. 

We’re actually kind of “due”. We had good ones on Feb 22, 2007, Dec 19-20, 2007 and then again on December 20, 2008. Then we had one on 2/3/09 to cap off that great 6 weeks in the 08-09 winter before the pattern changed. 

Agree.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

What about the Norlun of Jan 2011…that was fabulous. 

That was exceptional there. I think the jackpot was near a foot or maybe even a little more and a large area in CT got 6-10”.

 We didn’t get much this way though which is why I excluded it. I think we had about 2-3”. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That was exceptional there. I think the jackpot was near a foot or maybe even a little more and a large area in CT got 6-10”.

 We didn’t get much this way though which is why I excluded it. I think we had about 2-3”. 

Ahh ok, I see. Wow, I Thought that hit your area well too. 
 

Ya we got about 10” from that thing. Was certainly one to remember. 

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