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November 28-29 Storm Threat


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It's interesting how these IVT snow scenarios are like buck-shot in models.  That may be last untamed frontier in forecast modeling performance, and that's where the IVT targets.  The last 36 hours of models made this painfully clear that it wouldn't be a classic cyclone impact, but at the time ... IVT entered the discussion by spraying solutions everywhere.

I remember this back all the way to the 1990s. I think there was a Norlun ( or IVT ...if there's a difference there), that gave PWM like 18 to 24" overnight on a headline graphic that had white states... oops.   But models back in the day used to start sniffing the possibility out, and then every run would reposition the axis of QPF south of previous...  If it came into the 60 hour range on you, it was an ordeal that verified south after pivoting that way in future guidance.

It doesn't seem that sort of 'error prediction' happened here. It's been NYC, Berks... NE Mass... 

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually when you do that, it’s your passive aggressive way to wish it all out and then have it go to shit from here. :lol:

Not a all. I don’t ever wish snow away from people  I’ve been posting for a few days this looked like a possible IVT. SNE does well with these early season deals . Of course , I’ll get nothing, but hope you guys do well

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's interesting how these IVT snow scenarios are like buck-shot in models.  That may be last untamed frontier in forecast modeling performance, and that's where the IVT targets.  The last 36 hours of models made this painfully clear that it wouldn't be a classic cyclone impact, but at the time ... IVT entered the discussion by spraying solutions everywhere.

I remember this back all the way to the 1990s. I think there was a Norlun ( or IVT ...if there's a difference there), that gave PWM like 18 to 24" overnight on a headline graphic that had white states... oops.   But models back in the day used to start sniffing the possibility out, and then every run would reposition the axis of QPF south of previous...  If it came into the 60 hour range on you, it was an ordeal that verified south after pivoting that way in future guidance.

It doesn't seem that sort of 'error prediction' happened here. It's been NYC, Berks... NE Mass... 

March 1992. Just a classic bust forecast. Forecast was clear at 9 PM on Thursday, then went from occasional flurries at 6 PM on Friday to 10-15 in the PWM area by 4 AM Sat.

Picture1.jpg

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Very old school but it’s on page two here

http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf

Essentially the primary difference between an inverted trof and a NORLUN is the near stationary aspect of a NORLUN. Kind of like a square/rectangle argument. All NORULNs are inverted trofs, but not all inverted trofs are NORLUNs (there are some temp difference and moisture requirements, but most of those are typically met with inverted trofs anyway). 

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24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

March 1992. Just a classic bust forecast. Forecast was clear at 9 PM on Thursday, then went from occasional flurries at 6 PM on Friday to 10-15 in the PWM area by 4 AM Sat.

Picture1.jpg

Essentially the primary difference between an inverted trof and a NORLUN is the near stationary aspect of a NORLUN. Kind of like a square/rectangle argument. All NORULNs are inverted trofs, but not all inverted trofs are NORLUNs (there are some temp difference and moisture requirements, but most of those are typically met with inverted trofs anyway). 

Yeah, I knew there was a subtler distinction between the two ( lazy ) but that's good rule of thumb re the stationary aspect. Interesting.

But that bust was funny... man, "clear" - haha.  That may be on par or even exceed the extraordinary Dec 23 1997, for me ... the first greatest bust of all personal witness'!   And thankfully .. it was a "positive" bust.  Night before official for Worcester MA up through Concord NH axis went something similar to, "Tonight:  Increasingly clouds. Low in the upper 20s.   Saturday, lights snow early, accumulating 1-3, mixing with rain, ending in the afternoon.  High in the mid 30s"    What happened?   18 to 24" with some towns getting 8 of that in a single hour, temperatures hammered down to mid 20s ... not mid 30s. 

The 2nd greatest bust of all personal witness notoriety was that infamous 48 hour in advance Blizzard Warning fiasco of Jan 1987 -->  flurries NW of Boston through sun dimly visible. And the coup de grace was the 9F 32 mph wind gust walk to school that morning of "national guard on notice"... kidding         but, that would be a negative bust, if anyone needs that defined -

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25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

March 1992. Just a classic bust forecast. Forecast was clear at 9 PM on Thursday, then went from occasional flurries at 6 PM on Friday to 10-15 in the PWM area by 4 AM Sat.

Picture1.jpg

Essentially the primary difference between an inverted trof and a NORLUN is the near stationary aspect of a NORLUN. Kind of like a square/rectangle argument. All NORULNs are inverted trofs, but not all inverted trofs are NORLUNs (there are some temp difference and moisture requirements, but most of those are typically met with inverted trofs anyway). 

At least that one was a positive one, There was one a few years back and i can't remember the date (you may) that was forecast i think for 6+" and we never saw a flake, But a bust is a bust either way.

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