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Could it be? November 13-15 Potential Snow


Hoosier
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thinking tomorrow ends up more interesting in these parts than the weekend impulse:

"A MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE MID-   
LEVEL LOW LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN IL ON   
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS   
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) ACROSS THE   
AREA LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SIGNS   
CONTINUE TO POINT TO SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW   
AND GRAUPEL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS GIVEN THE 7+C/KM SURFACE TO   
675MB LAPSE RATES AND NEAR ZERO WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. WITH THIS   
IN MIND, I CONTINUED TO HIT THE HEAVY WORDING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS   
IN THE FORECAST. I HAVE LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE   
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE   
POTENTIAL OF CHARGE SEPARATE IN THE CLOUDS, WITH SOME CAPE NOTED   
EXTENDING THROUGH THE -10 TO -20C LEVEL. OVERALL, THE PRIMARY   
IMPACTS FROM THESE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF   
SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS, AND SOME LOCALLY   
HIGHER WIND GUSTS. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE,   
ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE,   
EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN FOR MOST BY EARLY FRIDAY   
EVENING. ONLY SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED  
TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IN AND   
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. "

This turn towards true November weather is right on cue. Not a crazy or exteme pattern. Gradual step down to seasonality. Good sign IMO.

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

thinking tomorrow ends up more interesting in these parts than the weekend impulse:

"A MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE MID-   
LEVEL LOW LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN IL ON   
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS   
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS (PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW) ACROSS THE   
AREA LATER FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SIGNS   
CONTINUE TO POINT TO SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW   
AND GRAUPEL WITHIN THESE SHOWERS GIVEN THE 7+C/KM SURFACE TO   
675MB LAPSE RATES AND NEAR ZERO WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. WITH THIS   
IN MIND, I CONTINUED TO HIT THE HEAVY WORDING OF THE SNOW SHOWERS   
IN THE FORECAST. I HAVE LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE   
FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE   
POTENTIAL OF CHARGE SEPARATE IN THE CLOUDS, WITH SOME CAPE NOTED   
EXTENDING THROUGH THE -10 TO -20C LEVEL. OVERALL, THE PRIMARY   
IMPACTS FROM THESE HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF   
SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS, AND SOME LOCALLY   
HIGHER WIND GUSTS. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE,   
ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE,   
EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN FOR MOST BY EARLY FRIDAY   
EVENING. ONLY SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED  
TO PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN IN AND   
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. "

This turn towards true November weather is right on cue. Not a crazy or exteme pattern. Gradual step down to seasonality. Good sign IMO.

agreed. This gradual slope down to winter has been somewhat atypical over the past 5-6 seasons.

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Guys, can you believe we made it to the 2nd page without anybody mentioning the sun angle.  We have a smart group here who realizes that it is like a late January sun angle.  The bigger factor at this time of year is ground warmth, which means that the snow may tend to melt/compact more quickly. 

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Guys, can you believe we made it to the 2nd page without anybody mentioning the sun angle.  We have a smart group here who realizes that it is like a late January sun angle.  The bigger factor at this time of year is ground warmth, which means that the snow may tend to melt/compact more quickly. 

is there any ground temp data out there? We talk about it a lot but I’ve never actually seen any hard data. Seems it would be useful to industry (albeit limited) primarily surrounding planting season.
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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Guys, can you believe we made it to the 2nd page without anybody mentioning the sun angle.  We have a smart group here who realizes that it is like a late January sun angle.  The bigger factor at this time of year is ground warmth, which means that the snow may tend to melt/compact more quickly. 

And for the latter issue, it'll help that temps will be held in the 30's from later tonight on through the event.

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39 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

I know, I know, it's the 18Z but it's upping the totals for the Sunday system.  Curious.  

 

It's good to be back with you all.  It's been a while since I wasted my time and lost mind on this crazy addiction.  

I've been lurking on sites like this since 2009. Excited for another winter season. Seems like it's been hard to get respectable Decembers in these parts for a long time.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Guys, can you believe we made it to the 2nd page without anybody mentioning the sun angle.  We have a smart group here who realizes that it is like a late January sun angle.  The bigger factor at this time of year is ground warmth, which means that the snow may tend to melt/compact more quickly. 

This isn't  February.

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The evolution change at 500mb on guidance the past few days has been quite significant.

We’re at the point where there’s actually phasing and the wave goes neutral or negative tilt.

Need to get it closer but the trends today have been favorable for a better system, with the current system moving east enough to allow for further development of this clipper.

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As someone who lives somewhat closer to Lake Michigan, always have to take a look at potential negative consequences of marine influence at this time of year.  Lake temps are still in the mid 50s from the shore all the way out to mid lake, which would be a problem for areas near the lake in a number of setups.  BUT in this case, the progged path of the surface low means that the flow never really turns onshore around Chicago and into extreme northwest Indiana.  So that concern is taken off the table this time.  

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The evolution change at 500mb on guidance the past few days has been quite significant.

We’re at the point where there’s actually phasing and the wave goes neutral or negative tilt.

The new trend has been slower for those both to occur, along with a flatter/northern entry into the US.

This leads to a delayed organization, and a miss for around here.


.
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  • Hoosier changed the title to Could it be? November 13-15 Potential Snow

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