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14 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If they have not gotten to freezing yet, they are not a good representation of our area,at all.

It’s representative of all our local stations on the water. The SSTs have been running very warm. Plus the CAA hasn’t been very impressive this month due to the strong Pacific influence.
 

Stations right on the water bolded

 

Regional Weather Roundup
National Weather Service New York NY
700 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

Note: "FAIR" indicates few or no clouds below 12,000 feet with no
significant weather and/or obstructions to visibility.

NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-301300-
New York City Metro Area

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLOUDY    34  21  59 CALM      30.04S
World Trd Ctr  NOT AVBL
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     34  23  64 W3          N/A
LaGuardia Arpt MOCLDY    35  20  54 CALM      30.03S
Queens College   N/A     34  23  64 S2          N/A
Kennedy Intl   MOCLDY    31  24  75 SW5       30.05R WCI  26
Breezy Point     N/A     36 N/A N/A W6          N/A  WCI  31
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     34  25  69 S5          N/A  WCI  30
Staten Island    N/A     32  25  74 S3          N/A
Newark/Liberty MOCLDY    32  23  69 SW5       30.03S WCI  27
Teterboro      CLOUDY    29  22  75 CALM      30.02S
$$

NYZ177-179-078>081-301300-
Long Island New York

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Jones Beach      N/A     34 N/A N/A W5          N/A  WCI  30
Wantagh          N/A     30  23  74 SW3         N/A
Hempstead      NOT AVBL
Matinecock Pt    N/A     36 N/A N/A SW8         N/A  WCI  29
Farmingdale    PTCLDY    29  20  69 CALM      30.04R
MacArthur/ISP  PTCLDY    24  19  81 SW3       30.03R
Stony Brook      N/A     30  25  80 SW2         N/A
Shirley        PTCLDY    23  18  81 CALM      30.03R
Mt Sinai Harb    N/A     32 N/A N/A SW2         N/A
Westhampton    PTCLDY    16  12  84 CALM      30.04R
East Hampton   FAIR      28  20  70 CALM      30.02R
Southold         N/A     32  25  74 NW5         N/A  WCI  27
Montauk          N/A     33  22  63 NW12G20   30.02R WCI  24

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s representative of all our local stations on the water. The SSTs have been running very warm. Plus the CAA hasn’t been very impressive this month due to the strong Pacific influence.
 

Stations right on the water bolded..

Very true.  I'll often look at the private weather stations on wundermap and the difference between those within a mile or so of the water and those farther inland has been large.  I actually had about a two week longer growing season than places a mile south of here.  FWIW, I think similar happens along the Lake Ontario shore.

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Rain and snow here

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s representative of all our local stations on the water. The SSTs have been running very warm. Plus the CAA hasn’t been very impressive this month due to the strong Pacific influence.
 

Stations right on the water bolded

 

Regional Weather Roundup
National Weather Service New York NY
700 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

Note: "FAIR" indicates few or no clouds below 12,000 feet with no
significant weather and/or obstructions to visibility.

NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-301300-
New York City Metro Area

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLOUDY    34  21  59 CALM      30.04S
World Trd Ctr  NOT AVBL
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     34  23  64 W3          N/A
LaGuardia Arpt MOCLDY    35  20  54 CALM      30.03S
Queens College   N/A     34  23  64 S2          N/A
Kennedy Intl   MOCLDY    31  24  75 SW5       30.05R WCI  26
Breezy Point     N/A     36 N/A N/A W6          N/A  WCI  31
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     34  25  69 S5          N/A  WCI  30
Staten Island    N/A     32  25  74 S3          N/A
Newark/Liberty MOCLDY    32  23  69 SW5       30.03S WCI  27
Teterboro      CLOUDY    29  22  75 CALM      30.02S
$$

NYZ177-179-078>081-301300-
Long Island New York

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Jones Beach      N/A     34 N/A N/A W5          N/A  WCI  30
Wantagh          N/A     30  23  74 SW3         N/A
Hempstead      NOT AVBL
Matinecock Pt    N/A     36 N/A N/A SW8         N/A  WCI  29
Farmingdale    PTCLDY    29  20  69 CALM      30.04R
MacArthur/ISP  PTCLDY    24  19  81 SW3       30.03R
Stony Brook      N/A     30  25  80 SW2         N/A
Shirley        PTCLDY    23  18  81 CALM      30.03R
Mt Sinai Harb    N/A     32 N/A N/A SW2         N/A
Westhampton    PTCLDY    16  12  84 CALM      30.04R
East Hampton   FAIR      28  20  70 CALM      30.02R
Southold         N/A     32  25  74 NW5         N/A  WCI  27
Montauk          N/A     33  22  63 NW12G20   30.02R WCI  24

 

I agree if you live right on the water, they are a fair representation. However the vast majority of the area probably 99%, has been below freezing already.

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Very true.  I'll often look at the private weather stations on windermap and the difference between those within a mile or so of the water and those farther inland has been large.  I actually had about a two week longer growing season than places a mile south of here.  FWIW, I think similar happens along the Lake Ontario shore.

Yeah, just going a few miles from the water in weak CAA patterns makes a big difference. This month has been very dry with light winds at night. So the areas away from the direct influence of SSTs still in the 50s were able to radiate. Islip had warmer high temperatures this month and cooler lows.  Novembers with true Arctic outbreaks like we had a few years ago usually have colder highs and lows. 
 

ISP NOV 

Max…+0.8

Min….-2.3

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November is concluding with a mean temperature of 46.2° in New York City. That is 1.8° below the 1991-2020 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow will turn somewhat milder. Ahead of the next cold front, Thursday will be unseasonably mild. No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, Denver has yet to see its first measurable snowfall through November 29. The previous record latest first measurable snowfall occurred on November 21, 1934.

Phoenix is wrapping up its 2nd warmest November on record. All three November cases with a mean temperature of 70° or above occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1895. Las Vegas is concluding its warmest November on record. All six November cases with a mean temperature of 60° or above have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1937.

Atlantic blocking (AO and NAO) is now breaking down. As a result, temperatures will likely turn milder for at least a time. Although the first 10 days of December will likely average somewhat cooler than normal overall from a lag in the pattern response to the breakdown in Atlantic blocking, the first half of the month overall could wind up near normal or somewhat warmer than normal. Afterward, developments related to the EPO and AO could determine the outcome for much of the remainder of the month. For now, there remains uncertainty about the evolution of the teleconnections. However, it appears somewhat more likely than not that December will see a warm anomaly in the Northeast.

Fall 2021 was wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there were 9  prior August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Final fall rainfall in New York City was 16.41".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +11.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.632 today.

On November 28 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.013 (RMM). The November 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.111 (RMM).

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

November is concluding with a mean temperature of 46.2° in New York City. That is 1.8° below the 1991-2020 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow will turn somewhat milder. Ahead of the next cold front, Thursday will be unseasonably mild. No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, Denver has yet to see its first measurable snowfall through November 29. The previous record latest first measurable snowfall occurred on November 21, 1934.

Phoenix is wrapping up its 2nd warmest November on record. All three November cases with a mean temperature of 70° or above occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1895. Las Vegas is concluding its warmest November on record. All six November cases with a mean temperature of 60° or above have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1937.

Atlantic blocking (AO and NAO) is now breaking down. As a result, temperatures will likely turn milder for at least a time. Although the first 10 days of December will likely average somewhat cooler than normal overall from a lag in the pattern response to the breakdown in Atlantic blocking, the first half of the month overall could wind up near normal or somewhat warmer than normal. Afterward, developments related to the EPO and AO could determine the outcome for much of the remainder of the month. For now, there remains uncertainty about the evolution of the teleconnections. However, it appears somewhat more likely than not that December will see a warm anomaly in the Northeast.

Fall 2021 was wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there were 9  prior August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Final fall rainfall in New York City was 16.41".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +11.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.632 today.

On November 28 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.013 (RMM). The November 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.111 (RMM).

 

Don with all the warm anomalies out west is it possible that this winter could see coast to coast warmth with all the cold confined to Alaska?

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don with all the warm anomalies out west is it possible that this winter could see coast to coast warmth with all the cold confined to Alaska?

 

There’s some risk of such an outcome, but I think we’ll have some opportunities for cold and snow despite a warmer than normal winter overall.

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9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Congrats..they made it down to 27 this morning.

Probably won't see that number again until after the solstice 

i think we'll get below that way before the winter solstice. we have exactly 3 weeks to do that, we have a warm up but usually warm ups around this time of the year cool down as the models get closer to the dates. ironically the opposite happens after the nighttime cooling peaked which is when winter begins, models moderate cold fronts as they closer to the event. similarly it happens during spring time models could say 75 for let's May 10th and we actually get closer to May 10th they'll print out  78-80 degrees and after the summer starts models print out 95 degrees in 10 days let's say august 10th but by august 8th they'll print out 92. though a lot of times summer it over performs because of global warming! the sun is just stronger nowadays i guess. i have managed to find this trend, you guys can look at this yourselves. 

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Several stations across the region has their warmest fall on record. Nearly all finished in the top 10 warmest. This record fall warmth has been a common theme in recent years.

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 54.9 0
2 2011 54.3 6
3 2017 54.2 0
4 2015 54.1 0
5 2020 53.8 0


 

Time Series Summary for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 59.5 3
2 2020 58.4 0
3 2015 58.0 0
4 2016 57.6 0
5 2017 57.2 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 61.3 0
2 2015 60.9 0
3 1971 60.4 0
- 1961 60.4 0
4 2017 60.3 0
- 1990 60.3 0
5 2016 60.1 0
- 2011 60.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 59.8 0
2 2021 59.2 0
3 2016 59.0 7
4 2020 58.9 2
- 2017 58.9 0
- 2005 58.9 1
5 2011 58.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 58.8 0
2 2015 58.6 0
3 2021 58.5 0
- 2011 58.5 0
4 1990 58.1 0
5 2016 58.0 0
6 2020 57.7 0
- 2005 57.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2016 62.5 0
2 2021 62.1 0
3 2015 61.9 0
- 2007 61.9 0
- 2005 61.9 0
4 2020 61.8 0
5 2017 61.7 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 61.1 0
2 1971 60.8 0
3 2016 60.2 0
4 2021 60.0 0
- 2017 60.0 0
5 1983 59.8 0
- 1961 59.8 0
6 2011 59.5 0
7 2005 59.4 0
8 2020 59.2 0
- 1985 59.2 0
9 1990 59.1 0
10 2010 59.0 0
- 2007 59.0 0
- 1970 59.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2016 59.1 0
2 2011 59.0 0
3 2015 58.9 0
4 2017 58.8 0
5 1973 58.6 0
6 2021 58.4 0
7 2020 58.3 0
8 1977 58.2 0
9 1975 57.9 0
10 2007 57.8 0


 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2011 58.4 0
2 1931 58.3 0
3 2021 58.1 0
4 1975 57.7 0
5 1927 57.5 0
6 2017 57.4 0
- 1946 57.4 0
7 2015 57.3 0
- 1983 57.3 0
8 1990 57.1 0
9 1953 57.0 0
10 1971 56.9 0
- 1961 56.9 0


 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2011 47.8 0
2 2017 47.7 0
3 2021 47.5 0
4 2016 47.3 0
5 1961 46.7 0
6 2001 46.4 0
7 2015 46.2 0
8 2020 45.8 0
9 1999 45.6 0
10 1970 45.3 0
- 1957 45.3 0
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Yesterdays (Nov 30) elevated snow accumulations... most of it melted as it fell below 1000 feet.  (Click for the detail)

 

Nov ended up a little light on activity but the Nov 13 severe weather event (hail/tors) stood out.  Temps skidded...from the +4.1 departure of October to the -1.8 at CP for Nov. Precip was well below normal for Nov.

 

At 620 PM: Added November departure from normal precip, percent of normal precip, departure from normal temp and total November snowfall at a few CoCoRaHs stations.

Screen Shot 2021-12-01 at 8.54.27 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-01 at 5.52.47 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-01 at 5.53.04 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-01 at 5.53.28 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-01 at 6.08.10 PM.png

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