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NNE Cold Season Thread 2021/2022


PhineasC
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Still have a crusty 5-6" of snow pack that survived yesterday's "torch". In addition to the 8.0" of upslope from last Friday and 1-2" from the multitude of weak clippers, I had 3.1" of WAA snow early yesterday AM before rotting in CAD fog in the high 30s all day so the melting was slow. Even Woodford reached 43° F when I was only 38° F. 

I didn't mix out until the thunderstorm in the evening. It went from a calm fog to a sudden freight train from the W and NW with rain, pea sized hail, and graupel. It ended as some wet snow, yielding a 1/2" of small hail, graupel, and wet (now frozen) snow. Season snow total is 18.5". Not a bad start. Too bad Monday's stronger cutter probably wipes out what is a nice solid base for the snow mobilers and cross country skiers. 

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Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.24” L.E.

 

We’ve mostly cleared out, and the radar looks quiet, so I’d say we’re done with this most recent system and the above totals should represent the final values.

That was the 10th accumulating storm of the season, with two storms thus far in December and eight from November.  That’s a respectable number of storms for November, and it was a decent winter month with fairly average numbers in most snow categories I track.  I’m planning to put together the summary for the month with comparison to other Novembers when I get a chance.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 24.3 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 3.5 inches

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1 hour ago, wxmanmitch said:

Still have a crusty 5-6" of snow pack that survived yesterday's "torch". In addition to the 8.0" of upslope from last Friday and 1-2" from the multitude of weak clippers, I had 3.1" of WAA snow early yesterday AM before rotting in CAD fog in the high 30s all day so the melting was slow. Even Woodford reached 43° F when I was only 38° F. 

I didn't mix out until the thunderstorm in the evening. It went from a calm fog to a sudden freight train from the W and NW with rain, pea sized hail, and graupel. It ended as some wet snow, yielding a 1/2" of small hail, graupel, and wet (now frozen) snow. Season snow total is 18.5". Not a bad start. Too bad Monday's stronger cutter probably wipes out what is a nice solid base for the snow mobilers and cross country skiers. 

Interestingly even being on the western slopes I only got to 40.3F yesterday--which is pretty decent for here CAD wise (as Tamarack laughs)

 Still rock hard crust coverage, although will be long gone Monday like you mentioned.

13.5" season so far...pretty respectable, probably above average i would think.

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Nice disco from BTV on tomorrow's snow shower and accumulation potential.  

Potential snowfall in the 1 to 3 inch range in most areas is
forecast. However, given the convective nature, expect large
variability across the region, with greatest chance for the
deeper snow accumulations over the Adirondacks. It appears
precipitation amounts will be enhanced due to moisture advection
associated with moderately strong west to southwest low level
trajectories off the eastern Great Lakes throughout the
afternoon and evening. The surface moisture return will be
evident with dew points surging back through the 20s to near 30
along with increasing southerly winds. These dynamics will
promote better surface convergence along and ahead of the weak
surface front. As a result, we should see widespread snow shower
activity, and where surface based CAPE develops, briefly heavy
snow showers lowering visibilities to under a mile can be
expected. The latest convective allowing model guidance is
bullish on this potential, especially across the Adirondack
region in the afternoon and potentially over northern Vermont
during the evening.

High resolution ensemble data point to scattered heavy snow
shower activity with low probabilities of snowfall accumulating
an inch in an hour`s time. Note that accumulations will be
limited by duration of this heavier snowfall. Currently looks
like snow squall activity is unlikely, but will need to keep an
eye on this potential if snow showers can organize around a low
level frontal boundary. Given favorably cold conditions and
roughly average snow ratios supporting a fairly dry snow, expect
some blowing snow. 
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The 18z EURO continues the weird highly concentrated but big QPF signal around the Spine in these parts.

Crazy the QPF maps even print out a pixel or two of 0.50" water.  Someone is going to get lit up very localized between Jay and Sugarbush :lol:.  Too many models have showed some weirdly high QPF spots in the area that they must be seeing something.

ecmwf-deterministic-vt-total_precip_inch-8723600.thumb.png.7f122f1c091d28a610305aa0262504d6.png

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3 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Still have a crusty 5-6" of snow pack that survived yesterday's "torch". In addition to the 8.0" of upslope from last Friday and 1-2" from the multitude of weak clippers, I had 3.1" of WAA snow early yesterday AM before rotting in CAD fog in the high 30s all day so the melting was slow. Even Woodford reached 43° F when I was only 38° F. 

I didn't mix out until the thunderstorm in the evening. It went from a calm fog to a sudden freight train from the W and NW with rain, pea sized hail, and graupel. It ended as some wet snow, yielding a 1/2" of small hail, graupel, and wet (now frozen) snow. Season snow total is 18.5". Not a bad start. Too bad Monday's stronger cutter probably wipes out what is a nice solid base for the snow mobilers and cross country skiers. 

Why would lower 40s and a couple tenths of precip wipe out that cement base

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11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Why would lower 40s and a couple tenths of precip wipe out that cement base

Monday's forecast for Manchester, VT is 56° and 1/4-1/2" RA with strong S/SW wind.  Mitch's extra 1500' elevation may not be as much help as usual with that wind direction, and high wind/high dews make for pack-eating.  Still, his place probably has the best chance of pack survival of any of the regular posters here.

Low teens here this AM.  The wind was still strong well into the overnight, preventing a drop into the singles.

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3 hours ago, tamarack said:

Monday's forecast for Manchester, VT is 56° and 1/4-1/2" RA with strong S/SW wind.  Mitch's extra 1500' elevation may not be as much help as usual with that wind direction, and high wind/high dews make for pack-eating.  Still, his place probably has the best chance of pack survival of any of the regular posters here.

Low teens here this AM.  The wind was still strong well into the overnight, preventing a drop into the singles.

 

2 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

It'll probably be upper 40s, low 50s with similar dew points. This upcoming cutter is quite strong and should mix out the CAD around here. 

True, hey Mitch post some before and after pics. Also some added upslope tonight? Maybe more after FROPA

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15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Why would lower 40s and a couple tenths of precip wipe out that cement base?

I don’t really know the climate down there, but NOHRSC analysis certainly doesn’t suggest that the local snowpack here is going to disappear because of one mixed system, and I find the NOHRSC projections do a pretty nice job for our site using the CoCoRaHS data.  The current snowpack isn’t just a bunch of fluff; even here in the valley it’s been around almost two weeks and it’s seen bolstering and consolidation from six storms.  The projected system doesn’t have a ton or rain, and there’s frozen on both ends depending on location.  I guess we’ll just have to see how it plays out, but If this was really a big deal, I think people would be talking about issues for the local resorts around here.

04DEC21A.jpg.1f47d8be50843c7fba096e0f6d6995b5.jpg

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43 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s a great question, ha.  I honestly don’t know.

We had a skim coat the other day on the small and medium size ponds but that's gone. Some years down here you don't get enough ice to fish on the bigger lakes the whole year, and some years you get thick ice. I remember chopping through two feet to cut my holes on year.

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